Hamas and Fatah discuss national reconciliation ? Chinese military drills around Taiwan increase tensions
Leaders of Hamas and Fatah meet in Cairo to discuss national reconciliation
On October 9th, 2024, delegations of Hamas and Fatah Party met in Cairo for another round of reconciliation talks. The Hamas delegation was led by Khalil Al-Hayya, deputy chairman and chief negotiator of the group's Qatar-based political bureau, while the Fatah delegation was headed by the party’s deputy chairman, Mahmoud Al-Aloul. The talks focused on the war in Gaza and on reaching an understanding on the administration of Gaza after the war.? Ahead of the talks, a Palestinian official stated that if the two could not agree on a unity government, they may try to establish a committee to run Gaza and help manage its border crossings. Recent reports following the talks suggest that a ‘temporary, non-political committee’ is due to be established, with the committee’s role limited to managing the Rafah border crossing.
Israel took over the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing in May 2024, which led to the blocking of aid deliveries from Egypt to Gaza. Egypt, a key mediator between Israel and Hamas, has repeatedly expressed its opposition to Israel’s control of the Rafah crossing and its presence in the Philadelphi corridor between Gaza and Egypt, and has insisted re-establishing a Palestinian presence at the border. The country has also been urging Hamas and Fatah to agree on a mechanism to manage the Rafah crossing and has rejected coordination with Israel over the crossing, emphasising its willingness to only coordinate with Palestinian or international officials. However, Israel has thus far refused to withdraw from the crossing and the Philadelphi corridor, citing security concerns.
The meeting was the first since Hamas and Fatah met for talks in July 2024 in Beijing, when they signed a joint statement pledging to end internal divisions and enhance Palestinian unity. However, the administration of post-war Gaza is one of the most difficult issues for the reconciliation, and similar efforts have previously been unsuccessful. The two factions have been divided since 2007, when Hamas expelled Fatah from Gaza after a brief conflict, while the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank continues to be dominated by Fatah. While both Hamas and Fatah have said that the governance of Gaza was an internal affair, rejecting any Israeli conditions, Israel has ruled out Hamas’ inclusion. Furthermore, Yahya Sinwar, the new leader of Hamas and the alleged mastermind of the Hamas terror attack on October 7th, 2023, was not among the Hamas leaders who negotiated with Fatah in July and has so far shown little interest in negotiations with Israel.??
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Tensions escalate as China conducts military drills around Taiwan
On October 14th, 2024, China conducted renewed military exercises around Taiwan that involved all wings of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and simulated an attack on the country by land, sea, and air. Taiwan has called the exercise a ‘blatant provocation’, with President William Lai Ching-te convening a national security meeting in response. The country’s Ministry of Defence condemned the exercise as ‘irrational and provocative’ and said its priority was to avoid direct clashes that could lead to further escalation.
Taiwan has been on alert since previous week’s National Day speech by President Lai, in which he repeated that China had ‘no right to represent Taiwan.’ Lai emphasised the country’s commitment to resisting any attempts at annexation or encroachment on its sovereignty and offered to cooperate with China. While United States officials referred to the speech as ‘routine’, noting that there was no justification for the exercise, China condemned the speech and has referred to the exercise as a punishment for the recent speech. Maps published by Chinese state media showed its forces positioned around the whole island, with the PLA stating that China’s naval formations and aircraft approached Taiwan in ‘close proximity from different directions,’ focusing on blockading key ports and assaulting maritime and ground targets. Taiwan said it detected 34 ships and 125 aircraft surrounding the island.???
The drills, named Joint Sword 2024-B, follow a similar exercise, called Joint Sword 2024-A, in May 2024, shortly after Taiwan's newly elected president took office. According to the PLA, these exercises are a warning against 'separatist acts of Taiwan’s independence forces', with China’s defence ministry warning that more will follow. China continues to claim Taiwan as its territory and the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, has urged it to accept what he calls a ‘peaceful reunification,’ vowing to retake the island by force if necessary. Though the drills were widely expected, the deployment of Chinese ships and aircraft and their proximity to Taiwan has been seen as very aggressive behaviour. According to reports, US intelligence has claimed that Xi has instructed the PLA to be capable of an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. The current exercises coincide with Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov visiting China to discuss increased economic and military cooperation, which has been growing since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and already culminated in several joint military drills, including a recent joint exercise in the Sea of Japan.?
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