- In a pre-dawn attack on Sunday, 7 October, the militant group Hamas launched an unprecedented surprise attack from the Gaza Strip, supported by launching at least 2,500 rockets at Israel on the Jewish Simchat Tora holiday. Such an attack and Israel’s intelligence failure are reminiscent of the intelligence failures during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.[1]
- During the attack, Hamas managed to capture an area larger in size than Gaza itself.
- Hamas infiltration units penetrated Israel by maritime insertions, breaching the fences surrounding Gaza, and using powered paragliding systems to infiltrate deeper behind Israeli lines. Penetrations were supported by barrages of rockets on civilian and military targets, while suicide drones targeted Israeli forces operating in the area.
- The initial militants were highly trained and targeted Israeli senior military leaders, including capturing the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) Commander in charge of monitoring Hamas activities.[2] Hamas even captured an IDF base during their assault. Hamas militants killed and captured civilians and military personnel alike, with videos emerging of them raping and beating female civilians captured.
- Hamas was randomly shooting at civilian cars and buildings and parading with the desecrated bodies in the streets.
- Casualty counts are still coming in and will increase as Israel targets Hamas positions in Gaza and begins ground-clearing operations in the Gaza Strip.
- Currently, the Israeli death toll from Hamas’ ground and rocket attacks is over 700 killed, with over 2,300 injured, as of the morning of October 9th. [3]
- In Gaza, the death toll is at least 493 people, with 2,751 wounded from Israeli strikes, as of the morning of October 9th.[4]
What was Israel’s response?
- While initially caught off guard, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that this was war, as a state of emergency was declared across the country and as Israel’s reserve units were called into action.
- Israel announced Operation Iron Swords, where tens of thousands of reservists were called up with the goal of first clearing and regaining control over areas captured by Hamas before launching ground and air assaults into Gaza.[5]
- The IDF has managed to regain control over most of the areas taken by Hamas in the initial attack, with pockets of Hamas residents still in captured urban areas requiring house-by-house clearing operations.
- Israel’s security council has already authorised ground operations into Gaza.
- Such actions will likely result in a prolonged clearing operation as the IDF seeks to free the surviving hostages taken by Hamas back into Gaza.
- Israel has also strengthened its forces along the border with Lebanon to discourage Hezbollah—the Shia Islam political and military group at war with Israel—from launching any attacks while Israel is distracted with Hamas in the south.
- Note: There are unconfirmed videos coming out of Israel’s air defence system shooting down incoming missiles from southern Lebanon.
- The sanctioned Palestinian militant/terrorist group, Hamas, based in the Gaza Strip, which took power back in 2007, orchestrated the assault.
- Hamas is supported by Syria and the Shia Islamist group Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as by Iran. (The Hamas Spokesman, Ghazi Hamad, told BBC that Iran supported Hamas in its effort to launch the recent attack).[6]
- Hamas likely received both military aid and intelligence from its foreign supporters, given the extent of the attack that was carried out and that they knew the precise location of senior Israeli commanders.[7]
- Of note: Hamas officials were invited to Russia by the Kremlin in March, and Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has called the attacks an “expected development” in statements where he denounced the U.S.’s influence in the Middle East and in Ukraine.[8]
- Other world leaders, from the U.S. to Ukraine, have come out in support of Israel and denounced the attack by Hamas.[9] ?
What does this mean going forward?
- It is likely that once Israel regains control over the border to the Gaza Strip and after it performs its clearing operations of Gaza, it may be more willing to support Ukraine’s efforts, following Iran’s support of Russia’s war efforts there.
- Additionally, it is likely that there will be a rise in Mossad (Israel’s intelligence agency responsible for overseas human intelligence collection and covert action) assassinations around the world targeting Hamas affiliates in retaliation for these attacks.
- It still remains to be seen if the intelligence failure that occurred under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lead to a shift in domestic politics that has recently been dominated by Netanyahu’s political agenda.
What does this mean economically going forward?
- Regional investments in the region may be stifled in the near term, including any new investments and the exporting of natural gas from Noble Energy’s platforms off the coast of Israel as well as activities in Tamar.[10]
- During the fighting in 2021, Chevron's natural gas activities were shut down.
Image of Areas of Hamas' Advance and Israel's Counterattack
