Halftime on US Election Day//What to watch for in the next 12 hours//Webinar Invite for Tomorrow

It’s half-time on US Election Day, but the sports metaphors beloved by my fellow Americans have their limitations. Everyone knows the stakes are much higher than a?football?game.

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There hasn’t been much change in the polls in the final days, but there has been movement in?the “vibe”?and?other metrics, and this is a key point: not only are Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the ballot, but so are beleaguered pollsters, whose credibility will be under severe scrutiny following allegations of “herding”.

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Now that the day has arrived, I wanted to help those of you outside the US to plan your evening, and remind everyone that we will have a quick response note out tomorrow morning in time for the UK market open, and we’re hosting a short webinar at 1:30 pm on Wednesday. Request a place via the link below, and if you can’t attend we’ll send you the replay.

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Factoids for today:

• Pollster Nate Silver’s “Silver Bullet“ announced that out of 80,000 simulations, Harris was ahead by a tiny 50.015—the race couldn’t be tighter.
• A recent poll from AP shows 4 in 10 Americans are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overthrow the results.
• 54% of eligible voters in the US are female.
• Joe Rogan’s interview with Donald Trump has been viewed 45 million times on YouTube.
• Bad Bunny, the Puerto Rican rapper, holds the second-biggest streaming year of any artist in Spotify history, generating over 18.5 million in 2022.

When Will We Know and What Are We Watching?

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So what comes next? The most common question I’m getting is when we will get results from Pennsylvania, everyone’s favourite bellwether state with its 19 Electoral College votes.

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By all indications, we will be kept in suspense about results for some time, and that’s even before possible disruptions like vote recounts and litigation. Please see the table below for times when Exit Polls and official results are expected in key states, though some states may report “unofficial results” earlier. The most common question I’m getting is when we will get results from Pennsylvania, everyone’s favourite bellwether state with its 19 Electoral College votes.

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Sadly, we shouldn’t expect to hear results from Pennsylvania until late Wednesday at the earliest. In previous years, PA results have been released roughly one day after polls close, excluding 2020 which took four days. Pennsylvania exit polls will come at around 2:00am GMT, an hour after polling stations close (8:00pm ET).?

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But official results could well be hijacked if former President Trump declares victory early. This is a material risk that would undermine the vote-counting process and cause significant disruption to finalising the result, possibly leading to an extended delay and prolonging the uncertainty considerably.

In a race this tight, the direction of travel from minority communities such as Puerto Ricans, who understandably took umbrage at the suggestion by a comedian at Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden event who described PR as a “floating island of garbage”, will be watched closely.

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The Puerto Rican vote will most likely be felt in Pennsylvania, where they make up 3.69% of the population, compared to 0.5%-1.5% in other battleground states. However, an early signal could come from Georgia where 130,000 Puerto Ricans may tip Harris over the 1% polling lead she has going into Election Day. Who would have thought that a musician called Bad Bunny could be so influential? You would, if you’ve been reading our research, where we’ve consistently highlighted the role of non-traditional metrics such as Instagram followers like BB.

We are also keeping a close eye on instances of political violence, election interference and other attempts to disrupt the US elections. Today, the state of Georgia reported two bomb threats, later deemed to be hoaxes, and indicated there were “Russian origins ” (see what happens when you Google “Russian election interference in Georgia by the way).

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It is also an excellent day to “bury” news, which may account for the timing of Israeli PM Netanyahu dismissing Defence Secretary Yoav Gallant , sparking protests in Tel Aviv.

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An exercise in democracy is a privilege and a responsibility; the world is watching what happens next in the US closely for all kinds of reasons, not least because what happens in America bears implications far beyond its borders.

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I hope to see you on our call tomorrow, and I’d love to hear your thoughts and impressions about what happens next—let me know.

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All the best,

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Tina

US Elections Rapid Reaction//Global and Market Implications

Fordham Global Foresight Webinar

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Join Tina Fordham and Martyn Brush following the U.S. election for a analysis of the results and their impact on global markets and investor strategy.

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Wednesday 6 November

8:30-9:15 am EST, 1:30-2:15 pm BST, and 9:30-10:15 pm HKT

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This exclusive Fordham Global Foresight session will examine the reactions to the election outcome and explore the potential implications for markets, geopolitical stability, and investment landscapes.

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Click here to Register

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• T-1 Until a Moment of Clarity on US Elections??
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