HALF TIME THOUGHTS, EPISODE 38: WILL IN-PERSON BUSINESS EVENTS REALLY COME BACK?
COVID-19 is in recession and restrictions that affected getting together are slowly being lifted.?Does this mean we will soon be back to the heyday of in-person business events, with tens of thousands attending the bigger conferences and exhibitions??Will our calendars fill back up with breakfasts, workshops, lunches, and happy hours?
It’s an easy thing to expect, but it presumes that behaviors people have developed over the past 2+ years will cede their place to habits of old.
Based on recent experiences, I’m not so sure.?
I don’t think it will happen as quickly as people expect, in the way that organizers are expecting, or – and here’s the rub – that we will see anywhere near a complete reversal.?Today’s article explains why.
Why In-Person Should Come Back
Let’s start with the positive side.?There are many reasons why in-person events should make a robust comeback, but here are my top three: networking, ideas, and a return to the office.
Events that bring people together, under whatever pretext, provide a valuable opportunity to catch up with existing contacts and make new ones.?
That experience – commonly known as networking – is difficult to replicate in the virtual world, although the tools and online experiences are improving.
Breaking out of our usual routine and physical space gives us a chance to see different things, hear contradictory opinions, and bring back new ideas.?This can range from structured learning (e.g., a training course or seminar) to serendipitous experiences (e.g., wandering through an exhibition).?
The value of new ideas is difficult to quantify but undisputedly high
Either way, the value of new ideas is difficult to quantify but undisputedly high.
Events also provide a welcome excuse to escape from the office.?Some employers are more lenient than others, but a legitimate-sounding event makes for a more easily justified absence than simply “I’m off to meet some people” or “I’m heading out to come up with new ideas”.?
As some people settle back into the office routine, that need to escape will build back up, and events will regrow to satisfy it.
Why In-Person Might Come Back More Slowly
I’ve heard numerous event organizers saying people are “desperate” to get back to in-person events.?In their view, the hundreds or thousands that used to show up regularly are chomping at the bit, ready to show up once more.
I’m not convinced.
Registrations are lagging, and no-show rates are high
Events I’ve either attended or been privy to in recent weeks have struggled to sell tickets.?Organizers are blasting out promotional emails, but registrations are lagging, and no-show rates are high.
After the fact, there’s confusion as to why things aren’t working.?Was it the timing??The venue??The topics being discussed??Are people still worried about COVID?
In my view, organizers are making two questionable assumptions: that people are desperate to get back to in-person events, and that the population of potential eventgoers is the same as it was before the pandemic.
A lot of people are saturated with information.?They’ve spent two years of stay-at-home time taking advantage of the onslaught of online learning opportunities.?The last thing they want now are more workshops, seminars, and keynote speakers telling them how to adapt to their new reality.
There is also a large population continuing to work from home or in a hybrid mode with fewer office days and some remote work.?Those people don’t have an office to escape.?They might live in very different areas from where they used to work.?And they have at-home responsibilities that affect their availability to attend events that would be convenient to someone working regular office hours.
We’re in the middle innings of the great return to work
We’re in the middle innings of the great return to work, which in some places is happening in parallel with the great resignation.?The two are related, of course.?Many people are resigning to avoid having to return to the drudgery of their former commute and office environment.
This will take a while – months, if not years – to stabilize, as businesses adopt new structures and policies, workers experiment with different lifestyles, and a new balance is struck between talent supply and demand.
And, while that is all unfolding, events will need to follow suit.?The target audience has changed and will continue changing.
Why In-Person Might Never Come Back
The previous section presumes that most erstwhile eventgoers will return to some semblance of their former work life (and lifestyle) and, ergo, that the target audience for in-person events will once again become viable, if not robust.
But what if that’s not the case?
领英推荐
What if the trend toward hybrid and remote working trumps corporations attempts to herd workers back into offices??
What if the reorganized worker population turns out to be heavily skewed toward remote work and less attracted to in-person events?
If their need for new ideas and learning is being adequately met and they don’t feel a burning need to escape their workplace (since hybrid or WFH arrangements are presumably less claustrophobic than their office-based predecessors), that only leaves the desire for networking to pull them back to the event venue.
Some of them will seriously question why they ever went to events in the first place
Some of them will seriously question why they ever went to events in the first place.?
What did they gain in return for the physically and mentally draining experience that many events deliver??
Was it worth the fees, especially if they must now pay out of their own pocket rather than expensing everything to their employer?
It’s an inexorable – and likely exponential – wave of change
There’s a growing technology stack aimed at virtually replicating key elements of the in-person event experience.?They might not seem terribly compelling today but it’s an inexorable – and likely exponential – wave of change.
For those who weren’t sold on in-person events in the first place or who only appreciated a subset of the in-person benefits, switching to an enhanced virtual event might be easy – even while the technology is still being developed.?
Those early adopters will make the switch quickly, contribute to further technological development, and show others the way.
The infamous Metaverse will do for virtual events what Google has done for online information.?
They won’t build it all themselves, but they will keep score and establish a standard that others will compete to outperform
They won’t build it all themselves, but they will keep score and establish a standard that others will compete to outperform.?
Billions of dollars getting invested will lead to material innovation and an accelerating pace of change.?
In a few years’ time, we’ll be laughing at 2022 virtual events in the same way we now laugh at earlier forms of social media and search.
The Repercussions
Unless in-person events rise like a phoenix from the ashes, we will see systemic and structural changes that permanently alter the event landscape.
Underutilized venues, accommodation, and supporting businesses (such as restaurants and travel services) that were built primarily to service corporate events will close.?In some cities, this might mean entire districts surrounding conference centers will fall into decline.
Event organizing companies will shrink and consolidate.?There were far too many of them competing for attendees and dollars before the pandemic; there are surely too many now.?Others will abandon their in-person event practices to focus mainly, if not exclusively, on virtual programming.
Industrial societies, long the bastions of knowledge transfer and conference organization, will also need to adapt and refocus – notably recalibrating their staff and revenue models to accommodate the loss of income from in-person events.
Academia will find (or even organize) new opportunities to publish its work, so that graduates can showcase themselves to potential employers and research professors can meet their targets and attract corporate sponsors.
I’m sure there are many other dimensions that I haven’t considered.
Whichever way the chips fall, I doubt the future will closely resemble the past.?Too much has changed.?
People have broken free from their work-life routines and are taking a once-in-a-lifetime (we hope) opportunity to fashion something new and improved.
That demographic and psychographic shift together with rapidly evolving technology means the event organizing landscape is forever altered.?
In-person will not, in my opinion, return to its former glory.?It will be a shadow of its former self.?
I’m extremely curious to see what shape that shadow takes.