No says ACDB ...ACDB="Anti_Carbon_Dioxide_Brigade" ...Half A Century SIR=>IGW ?IGW="Industrial_Global_Warming" SIR="Solar_Irradiation_Weakening"
Joannes Sevenhans
Alcatel Academy Distinguished Member 2001 ...IEEE Fellow 2000 for contributions to the design of solid state telecommunication transceivers ...PhD 1984 KULeuven ...Semi-retired ...Always looking for a next project ...
What is wrong ?
They call it TRP="Trend Reversal Paradox" ...
Lower solar heat input => Higher temperature ...
How come the long term temperature slope as a function of solar irradiation can go up in reverse for weakening solar irradiation ?
Based on "Deutsche Grundlichkeit" in Berlin they have an answer : The 90 year periodic Glassberg cycle and the other cycles interfere and over the past 3 centuries the cycles look like century cycles making +1°C-(-1°C)=2°C peak to peak temperature cycles.
So in Berlin temperature in 1800AD was about at the temperature now in Berlin with a cold minimum about 100 year ago.
So in Berlin they see a 200 year temperature cycle or about half of the frequency of the Glassberg solar cycle.
In Berlin climate, they have a "frequency divide by 2" installed on the Glassberg cycle ?
Cycles indeed ...
Does atmospheric climate shift the phase of temperature cycles with phase delay or with a phase advance on the solar irradiation cycles ?
Solar irradiation measurements and calculations started about 25x10,8year=270 year ago and we are now in solar cycle 25 counting in 10,8 year solar sunspot cycles.
On 1365W/m2, 3W/m2 or 0,22%=2197ppm difference in solar irradiation makes the difference between solar cooling and solar warming ?
领英推荐
No says the ACB="Anti Carbon Dioxide Brigade".
On 425ppmCO2-300ppmCO2, +125ppmCO2=0,0125% makes the difference between atmospheric cooling and atmospheric warming !
So : 99,9575% af the atmosphere gets warmed up by 0,0425% of the atmosphere.
That is if you allow the ACB to neglect water vapor in the atmosphere.
Water vapor humidity in atmosphere is indeed 10x higher than CO2=CarbonDioxide concentration near earth surface.
Over the past half century, the specific humidity anomaly went up 400ppm/50year=+0,2g/kg-(-0,2g/kg)/50year=+0,4g/kg/50year=8ppm/year
Over the past 60 year CO2 concentration went up 100ppm/60year=1,666ppm/year.
But : (+8ppmH2O/year)/(1,666ppmCO2/year)=5x
=>5x more H2O increase than CO2 increase per year.
Conclusion
Is water vapor more important than CO2 as a greenhouse gas or less important ?
Anyway
In climate science there are too many unanswered questions and too many unquestioned answers ...
But : Health & Climate & Energy are really very complicated and delicate politico-scientific stuff and also socio-economic stuff but we do the best we can and try to explain it as simple as possible but not simpler than that in the group :