Hal Brands’s 5 Pillars to U.S. Deterrence on Taiwan

What is U.S. policy on Taiwan, exactly? President Joe Biden has made deterring conflict a priority—and, like presidents before him, has embraced a policy of “strategic ambiguity.” Yet Biden has also publicly affirmed, at least four times now, that the United States would come to Taiwan’s aid if attacked. A great-power war, everyone can agree, would be cataclysmic. But the crucial question, Hal Brands writes, is “whether Washington can deter a conflict it hopes never to fight.”?

In a new essay for Foreign Policy, Brands outlines the five pillars to successfully deterring China from invading Taiwan. It’s not a magic formula, Brands notes; deterrence will require “greater urgency, resources, and unity than those committed to defending the existing order have exhibited so far.” For another perspective, check out the vigorous debate in the article’s comments section among subscribers—or read a report from Zuri Linetsky, who was embedded with U.S. forces in the Pacific and saw the dilemma of deterrence firsthand.

And while this is the biggest foreign-policy issue of our time, Taiwan’s perspective often doesn’t get enough attention. Don’t miss FP’s Ravi Agrawal speak exclusively with Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu on his country’s efforts to deter a Chinese invasion.—The Editors

New and Noteworthy

• Geopolitical Costs of a U.S. Shutdown: The escalating budget fight and looming shutdown in Washington will produce no benefit for the country and diminish its power, writes Daniel B. Baer in an argument for Foreign Policy. “Washington needs a coherent, focused approach,” argues Baer, “that isn’t perverted by either special interests or what are essentially small-donor performance artists in the U.S. Congress.”
• Why Mauritania Matters: “[Mauritania] has become an appealing destination for external power investment in a volatile region,” Samuel Ramani writes in his latest analysis for Foreign Policy. NATO, China, Russia, and regional powers all want closer ties to a stable West African nation, and their geostrategic competition “revolves around Mauritania’s natural gas reserves and the green energy potential presented by its vast desert terrain—not to mention its strategically valuable position on the Atlantic coast.”
• Adam Tooze on Inflation: FP’s Ones and Tooze podcast answers listener questions for a second week, this time on the subject of inflation and central banking. Tune in to hear from FP columnist Adam Tooze and deputy editor Cameron Abadi on U.K. interest rates, greedflation, the soft-versus-hard-landing debate, and more. Listen wherever you get your podcasts, and be sure to subscribe to receive new episodes every week.

FP Live

With an exciting slate of FP Live conversations ahead, a reminder that FP subscribers can submit questions for FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal to put to our expert guests live on air. Not a subscriber? Join the conversation now.

Heather Cox Richardson on American Democracy

Sept. 26 | 11 a.m. EDT

Historian Heather Cox Richardson has long grappled with questions of how democracy has weakened in the United States and how its citizenry can try to take back control. That topic is the focus of her new book, Democracy Awakening: Notes on the State of America. Register here.

How to Reboot America’s China Policy

Oct. 13 | 11 a.m. EDT

U.S. Rep. Andy Kim says Washington is wrong to see Beijing as an existential threat and should instead take a more “comprehensive approach.” Kim, a Democrat who represents New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, is a member of the high-profile House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. Register here.

Is the Conventional Wisdom on Ukraine Wrong?

Oct. 17 | 11 a.m. EDT

In recent months, political analysts have bemoaned Ukraine’s slow progress in its counteroffensive against Russian forces. But retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus thinks the conventional wisdom about Kyiv’s performance is premature—and possibly wrong. Register here.

Fiona Hill on the War in Ukraine

Oct. 26 | 11 a.m. EDT

It’s never easy to guess what Russian President Vladimir Putin might be thinking, but it’s always useful to learn how Fiona Hill views the state of play. Hill is one of the world’s foremost experts on Russian affairs and served as a senior director for Europe and Russia on the U.S. National Security Council. She will join FP Live to discuss the latest on the war and the world’s efforts to constrain Putin. Register here.

From FP Analytics

Insights and Analysis about Current and Future Hybrid Warfare From Experts on the Digital Front Lines: As new technologies are increasingly being weaponized to target civilians and critical infrastructure, including in Ukraine, the international community stands at a critical juncture in a rapidly evolving threat landscape. With support from Microsoft and input from global issue experts, FP Analytics explores how to strengthen Ukraine’s digital resilience and prepare for the hybrid wars of today—and tomorrow.

Quote of the Week

“In the long term, the world may indeed become multipolar, with India being the most obvious candidate to join the ranks of the United States and China. Nevertheless, that day is still far off. We will be living in a bipolar world for the foreseeable future—and strategy and policy should be designed accordingly.”

—Jo Inge Bekkevold, a senior China fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies and former Norwegian diplomat, arguing in a new essay that the popular idea of emerging power centers is wrong—and could lead to serious policy mistakes. Also, don’t miss FP’s Fall 2023 print issue on the global alliances that matter now.

Exercise Your Mind

In a recent letter sent to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and obtained by Foreign Policy, how many members of Congress from both political parties urged the State Department to follow Article 30 of the United Nations Convention Against Torture and hold Colombo responsible for decades of torture, military abuse, and other “horrific crimes” carried out against Sri Lanka’s minority Tamil population?

A. 5

B. 12

C. 17

D. 31

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this post.

Why Ukraine Is Not a Priority for the Global South

Increasingly, as FP’s Howard W. French writes in his latest column, poor countries are saying to rich nations that their priorities won’t mean more to them until theirs mean much more to the West. And as few topics occupy as much bandwidth for the rich West as Russia’s war in Ukraine, French explores why the world’s low- and middle-income nations have been largely indifferent in this case of great-power aggression.

The conventional wisdom pretends that countries of the global south are reluctant to criticize Russia out of an old and logical strategy long embraced by the weak: If you are being dominated by one set of countries, say the West, then for the sake of obtaining more breathing room for yourself, you root for their rivals. This is classic balancing, and poor countries have been doing this not just with regard to Russia but also toward China during its impressive rise over the past few decades. If you’re weak, you want partners—and generally speaking, the more the merrier. If they compete for your favor and support, all the better. Without them, you’d be reduced to going cap in hand to those who have dominated the international system, meaning the United States and Western Europe, for decades.

There is truth to this explanation, but it doesn’t go nearly far enough. To get closer to the heart of the matter, one must explore some of the stock language around international relations—terms that get thrown around with little examination or afterthought. The global south is one of these, and it does not withstand a moment’s careful thought. As others have pointed out, many of the countries routinely bunched together under this label are not particularly southern, and they share few other consistent qualities, whether ideological, economic, ethnic, linguistic, or racial. In full disclosure, I teach a class each spring that is billed as being about the global south, and I am tortured by this nomenclature issue every year.

Read French’s full column, and also Stephen M. Walt’s latest: “The Morality of Ukraine’s War Is Very Murky.” Be sure to set up your MyFP alerts to receive a daily or weekly digest of the latest commentary from all of FP’s thinkers.

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Answer: B. 12 members of the U.S. Congress. Read FP’s Jack Destch and Anusha Rathi report on U.S. lawmakers’ efforts to push the Biden administration to formally hold Sri Lanka responsible for its human rights abuses and violation of international humanitarian law.