The Hail Mary Strategy

In the last minutes of the game the quarterback calls for all players to go down field with the hopes that someone will catch the ball and achieve a touchdown. The game of business in times of disruption and failing to achieve success by applying an established playbook often resort to extreme measures. All too often the decision came too late in the game to even produce results using the Hail Mary, also known as the Alley-oop strategy.

The strategy is one in which the leader calls the play and the team abides by the decision. It relies on the probability of numbers and is willing to sacrifice the safety of the quarter back from a defensive assault. But one cannot overlook the talent and intuitive right timing of the leader in executing this last option when there is just enough time but not so much as to put gains at risk. Looking at this in a bit more detail the approach also has inferred distraction of the defense to shift resources to covering all of the team and permit the leader to remain untouched. In the context of business shaken by disruptive chaos our tried and true options become ineffective because of the unique character of the event. Basically the lack of experience creates both shock, confusion and drives us to make decisions based on instinct and less on a factual pragmatic basis.

In these first months of the Covid19 pandemic there have been several companies who have lost the survival battle. Blame gets laid to the events but in actually many were already suffering from viability issues. The event became a catalyst that accelerating their demise to the point where suitable remaining options would not have saved the enterprise. So why did they reach the point of collapse? Why didn’t they exercise various corrections and escape route options? In almost every case it was a matter of choice driven by hope, trust in failing excuses and actions that may work but the time required for that option to materialize exceed the life expectancy of the business. This mindset is common and still remains the tact of choice.

Few individuals are given the privilege of saving a sinking ship and most are likely to be the quarterback on a ship that they navigated into a perfect storm situation. On two separate occasions I have dealt with sinking ship scenarios.  The first realization that we must reach is a conservative estimate of remaining life, and acknowledgement for critical factors must be relied upon. Using a modified Hail Mary Alley-oop, we may not utilize all of our resources but simply those that support the life blood of the enterprise and those that are key elements for longer term viability. In the few cases that I have been involved with it addressed costs and sources of revenue. Both of which required a transformation of thinking from cash based containment or exploitation, to a mindset tempered by investment return. The most visible example is where businesses in fiscal trouble resort to staffing reductions and under this mindset change we view staffing as a value generator. This then requires a critical examination of contribution and return on monies spent vs. a generic cost cut. At the same time revenue exploitation examines the sources, the dependability and the optimization thereof while also considering the vested resources necessary to produce the outcome. I refer to this as a modified form of the Hail Mary because we only send downfield those resources that are capable and have a high probability for success. It is also worth noting that while this tactical effort is underway that we must still assess the more pragmatic elements of operational efficiency, waste and abuse, and mission redefinition.

Do you have a play book and does this resource have resilience to changing, varied and disruptive conditions? One point that is often overlooked is the response to positive disruption. While we are celebrating our good fortune we abandon our cautious nature. This introduces potential risk but it also produces a loss in value optimization. You may heard the term, champagne taste and beer pocketbook, but the same holds true for Full pocket book squandered on champagne celebration. Prosperity is an opportunity for reinvestment and controlled speculative pursuits. Spending value like drunken sailors is opportunity lost and experiencing the hangover effects from valueless celebration.   Like playbooks in sports our playbook is found in many places and forms. Examples include,

• Strategies
• Tactics
• Operating Protocol
• Role Vested Responsibilities and Authorities
• Precautionary Discussions
• Studies and Examinations
• Relationship Routes
• Varied Forms of Diversification
• Exploratory Exercises (practice development)

The diverse array of forms provides a modest degree of secure privilege. For a new C-Level it becomes both a friend and a foe, and these results in personal additions that fit present leadership conditions. Reckless maybe, contributory possibly, but all and all a dutiful obligation necessary to establish ownership and not use as a convenient excuse for failure.

Mindful observation of enterprise health is essential because of the dynamics of global enterprises. The smallest of small business are impacted by global events even though they may only serve a small local community. Understand the health of your business beyond fiscal conditions and looking at it holistically as it relates to viability that contributes to resilience has become more recognized as a necessity. Responsive conditional feedback fuels our decisions and affords ample options when in a informative status that one that is reactive. If conditions are such that actions are without result then we must remember the selective Hail Mary choice. These make or break decisions are a life saving measure and gives consideration to residual value in the case of failure (value from IP, customer base, fixed assets, foreign operation liquidity…).   If successful we must be prepared to move decisively but realize that we are still vulnerable. In fact, we are never truly iron clad and are continually vulnerable as typified by how disruption rocks our enterprises.

Every team wants to win and our adversary is often not our competition but the market. Whether it be from the vantage point of the consumer or the evolution of the industry itself. Competition is simply a resource for motivating our enterprise to achieve goals that we have established. When these struggle we employ measures to regain and gain control,, this comes from our playbook. The lack of materialized success requires a deeper dive into fewer playbook options, sometimes reaching the Hail Mary stage. In the final analysis we must strive for a respectable end whether we win or whether we lose.  The outcome should always have some positive value that remains as a token value for recovery.

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Clarity Group Global is an intellectual decision validation institution dedicated to the support of leaders, companies and organizations that face challenging choices. Making right decisions that produce significant value equates to less disruption and chaos, "non-tradition made exceptional".