status quo - H2/e-fuel US (post D.Trump) and potential for transatlantic business with europe

From February 26-27, 2025, the H2 Infrastructure Summit 2025 took place in Orange County, California, USA. The summit provided a platform for experts and decision-makers to discuss and drive forward the latest developments and strategies in the field of hydrogen infrastructure. I was invited to present European best practice, supply and demand dynamics, cost pathways, quotas and market conditions affecting the growth of the H2 economy in Europe and potential exporters from the US. The H2 summit focused on three main topics:

1. potential uses of hydrogen in the sectors especially the transportation sector for decarbonization and as a substitute fuel in the form of e-fuels especially for diesel trucks in the US to achieve a significant reduction in pollutant emissions.

2. applications and possible uses of #hydrogen in the US electricity sector to stabilize supply and demand. Here, large-scale batteries and hydrogen technology are in competition and are currently only used in individual pilot applications, albeit with significantly greater capacities than we are used to in Europe.

3. application and use of hydrogen in the B2C sector and in households, where technological solutions were presented that represent an alternative and decentralized energy supply for homeowners, replacing conventional energy sources such as oil and gas. The presentation of a start-up was interesting here: HyWatts with a "Power-Plant-in-a-Box solution" and production costs between 0.11-0.12 $/kWh (behind the meter price). However, costs of currently 2.38 $/kg (marginal costs) can also be calculated for industrial applications such as green steel production or industrial processes, meaning that the company already offers competitive hydrogen today.

One panel at the conference that I was able to attend dealt with opportunities and possibilities for US companies, in particular on the topics of cost-effective hydrogen production from renewable energies, which represents a sustainable and economical energy source. The role of hydrogen in aviation and shipping and achieving a zero emission GHG target by 2050, the professional design and optimization of supply chains to ensure efficiency and reliability, as well as opportunities under the IRA with the Section 45V Credit for Production of Clean Hydrogen and export potential. The panel also discussed opportunities to expand into the European market, where I was able to provide insights into European growth and funding opportunities, e.g. with IPCEI, H2Global or the Hydrogen Bank. The US representatives (utilities, start-ups and investors) were interested in insights into European best practice, but also possible barriers/hurdles in connection with the FID for European hydrogen projects. The unanimous opinion here was to think more flexibly and more open to technology when it comes to H2 colors.

Overall, it can be stated that the newly emerging American hydrogen market is learning to deal with opportunities and challenges comparable to those in the EU, and that the new administration is currently creating a cautiously positive mood. Companies and investors are scrutinizing new projects with a critical eye, not least because the market is currently lagging behind expectations.

Thanks to all H2 enthusiasts for the optimistic picture and willingness to collaborate with Europe on that topic, thanks to Jeff Benesch for great moderation and presentation of Zero? Taylor Gravois and Chris Shugart on insideful details on technology perspectives; Rachel Starr for regulatory and policie insides and Edward Kim for Investors view.

Information on Hydrogen Infrastructure Summit 2025

Information on German Hydrogen Market: Becoming the lead market for hydrogen technologies - KPMG in Germany