??H2/2024 PV Market Outlook
Guillermo Estébanez
Moving beyond with disruptive & sustainable Renewable Energy Solutions??| Product & Business Mgmt. | MBA
The global PV module demand in 2024 is expected to grow slowly, reaching 470-529 GW, a 1-13% increase from 467 GW in 2023.
China market Insights
???Installations: China added 102.5 GW of PV installations in H1 2024, a nearly 31 % YoY growth from 78.42 GW, accumulating 713.5 GW., with a significant share from ground-mounted projects 48%. However, H2 2024 may see limited growth due to market-oriented transactions and potential delays in utility-scale projects.
??????Policy Updates: The Chinese government implemented regulations to control capacity expansion and improve grid congestion. The new standards could alleviate supply-demand mismatches.
Europe Market Insights
??Demand Decline: Europe imported 54.2 GW of Chinese modules in H1 2024, down 13% YoY. The market faces challenges such as falling subsidies, high financing costs, and ongoing geopolitical instability, leading to reduced demand in H2 2024.
Germany
??Growth: Germany saw an 8% YoY increase in PV installations during H1 2024
??Drivers: Growth was supported by simplified review procedures for renewable energy projects and favorable policies, including the government's "Solar Taskforce" initiative, which aims to speed up solar deployment.
Netherlands
??Subsidy Reductions: Dutch PV demand is expected to decline due to reductions in the SDE++ subsidy scheme, which has been crucial in supporting renewable energy projects.
??????Market Maturity: The market is considered to be maturing, with a transition from subsidy-driven growth to market-driven dynamics
Italy
??Policy Changes: Italy's PV market faces uncertainties due to changes in incentive schemes and the slow rollout of grid connection reforms.
????Outlook: Despite these challenges, Italy remains one of the largest markets in Europe, though growth may be slower in H2 2024
Spain
????Government Support: MITECO unveiled a €2.3 billion support program aimed at the hydrogen and renewable energy sectors.
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?Market Slowdown: The Spanish PV market has been sluggish, but the new support measures are expected to stimulate growth and drive demand for PV installations
France
??Challenges: France is facing difficulties in meeting its renewable energy targets due to slow administrative processes and opposition to large-scale solar projects.
????Outlook: Despite these challenges, France is still focusing on expanding its PV capacity, with potential acceleration in H2 2024 as new projects are approved.
Poland
??Market Slowdown: Poland's PV market is experiencing a slowdown due to recent regulatory changes, including the transition to a net-billing system, which replaced the more favorable net-metering scheme.This regulatory shift has reduced the financial attractiveness of PV installations, leading to a significant drop in residential and small-scale commercial solar projects.
??Long-term Outlook: Despite the current challenges, Poland's market still holds potential, driven by the need to comply with EU renewable energy targets and growing awareness of energy security concerns.
Hungary
??Demand Decline: Hungary's PV market is facing declining demand, primarily due to changes in government policies that have reduced support for solar installations.
??Subsidy Adjustments: The reduction in subsidies has particularly impacted small-scale and residential projects, causing a slowdown in new installations.
??Future Prospects: While current conditions are challenging, the market could see a revival if supportive policies are reintroduced or adjusted to incentivize solar adoption.
??Overall EU Outlook H2-2024
The European PV market is expected to experience a mixed performance in H2 2024. Countries like Germany and the UK are likely to see continued growth due to supportive policies, while others like the Netherlands and Italy may face slower expansion due to policy changes and market maturity. Spain and France have the potential to pick up pace depending on the effectiveness of government support and policy implementation.
Other key regions
United Kingdom
??New Government Initiatives: The new Labour government is prioritizing renewable energy, with plans to significantly boost rooftop solar installations.
??Goals: The UK aims to double its renewable energy capacity by 2030, with rooftop solar expected to play a major role in this expansion.
India and Brazil
Expected to maintain H1 import levels due to favorable policies, but overall growth in H2 may be limited.
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