Guidelines for foresight-based policy analysis
Lieve Van Woensel
Foresight expert, former foresight advisor at the European Parliament
An introduction to foresight and to practicing foresight when dealing with policy.
My book, A bias radar for responsible policy-making (2020), already had a focus on foresight-based scientific advice. Hence, this new publication, Guidelines for foresight-based policy analysis, is methodological; it builds on the foresight methodologies that are applied by the Panel for the Future of Science and Technology (STOA) at the European Parliament since 2015. It is perceived as a practical manual for preparing future-proof policies for today’s complex policy issues and offers both an introduction to foresight and guidance on foresight in practice.
This manual may be useful for everyone dealing with foresight and policy, or with evidence-based policy-making. It describes practical guidelines for trustworthy policy analysis, including:
It also offers a stepwise framework for foresight-based policy analysis, including the analysis of the evidence as well as of the societal context of a policy issue, guiding the assessment of policy options to well inform policymakers about what might be anticipated.
The main schemes
1.??The bias wheel, a tool for becoming aware of biases regarding policy issues
The 'bias wheel' is a visual guideline for biases, a practical tool to check one's own and others' thinking, that categorises biases into six sets. The first category is 'research biases' (biases that affect the generation of evidence or influence the availability of evidence). The five other categories are those that affect advisers' and policy-makers' assessments of evidence and the decisions based on them, which are distinguished as 'cultural and value biases', 'attention biases', 'interest biases', 'availability biases' and 'associative biases'.
领英推荐
2.??The STEEPED wheel, a tool for investigating an issue in a 360-degree approach
When conducting foresight exercises, one can apply the STEEPED scheme to obtain insight into policy issues from a wide variety of perspectives. Ideally, this is done using an inter-disciplinary approach (in a discussion with some colleagues) and imagining the viewpoints of various stakeholders and other actors. During such an exercise, it is recommended to also concentrate on the possible unintended impacts of a technology and its relations with other topics, i.e., to brainstorm in an open way, thinking beyond initial assumptions.
The STEEPED wheel helps ensure that you do not overlook a perspective and suggests some questions for consideration. It is not meant to be a rigid scheme. It simply specifies seven lenses through which we can examine the impacts of techno-scientific developments, thereby ensuring that all areas of interest or concern are covered.
?3. A flexible framework for a foresight-based policy analysis process
This infographic summarises six steps within the foresight-based policy analysis process; it can be used as a working tool. This process is designed as a general guideline and, as such, is not to be seen as a rigorous directive. Variations are of course possible to better fit the purpose of the project, for instance, regarding the involvement of stakeholders and other actors, which can take place at different points such as in the designing phase or after a first draft of the policy options.
Lieve Van Woensel - 24 August 2021
A study on foresight methodologies for the Panel for the Future of Science and Technology (STOA).
EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service
Thank you for sharing this. Also useful for educational purposes.
Researcher - Author - Consultant
3 年Please consider using employee empowered Time Based Analysis for continuous improvement projects and transforming entire organisations. ? Looking at organisations through the lens of time reveals that when a single product or service is tracked, the value adding touch time is usually less than 15%. ?A time based analysis framework is a blank representation of the end to end value adding processes onto which real live data is superimposed. Transformation is employee driven, non value adding time and constraints are removed in order of priority. ? Time based analysis is a highly visual and structured way of recreating and transforming existing organisations where value adding capability and existing supply chain synchronisation are both poor. Results using the method (Both in Manufacturing and Services in the ￡500,000 to ￡28 Billion turnover range) have revealed high amounts of waste and untapped potential, this provides a shared vision for stakeholders and offers a real opportunity for major operational improvements. All the assets needed are already in place, they just need re-arranging. ? See www.drbobbarker.co.uk for guidance, implementation results and animations, all free and circulated to transform organisations.