GUATEMALA: TSE bars another key presidential contender
Thank you for reading LatinNews' chosen article from the Latin American Weekly Report, produced since 1967. The full report can be accessed here: Latin American Weekly Report -?25 May 2023
Carlos Pineda, a businessman running for the conservative Prosperidad Ciudadana (PC), has become the third presidential contender to be barred from Guatemala’s 25 June general election by the discredited electoral authority (TSE). While PC is a minor party, with just three deputies in the 160-member unicameral legislature, Pineda, a right-wing populist, had emerged as the surprise frontrunner in recent polls. Unsurprisingly he has slammed as spurious the decision by the TSE, which has faced international condemnation over its earlier exclusion of other candidates such as Thelma Cabrera of the left-wing indigenous Movimiento para la Liberación de los Pueblos (MLP), and Roberto Arzú of the right-of-centre Podemos [WR-23-09]. It?will fan existing fears regarding the integrity of the election amid the backsliding of democracy and anti-corruption efforts taking place under the conservative Vamos government led by President Alejandro Giammattei.
The TSE issued its ruling on 19 May after accepting a challenge from Cambio, a minor political party to which Pineda had previously belonged. The TSE decision accuses the PC of breaching nomination rules, citing various infractions which took place during a candidate proclamation meeting in November 2022, as well as subsequent actions taken by the PC’s executive body.
An entrepreneur with interests in African palm, bananas, livestock, and gas stations, among other sectors, Pineda had previously flirted with different parties (which in Guatemala are widely considered little more than vehicles for clientelism and private business interests). These included Cambio, which was founded in 2020 by Jorge and Manuel Baldizón Vargas, the sons of 2015 presidential candidate Manuel Baldizón, who returned last year from the US after serving a 28-month prison sentence for money laundering. After breaking with Cambio, which is fielding Baldizón’s cousin álvaro Manuel Trujillo Baldizón as its pick for the presidency, and Jorge and Manuel Jr as legislative candidates, Pineda received the PC presidential nomination in February.
Spinning himself as an alternative to Guatemala’s deeply discredited political elite, Pineda has expressed “respect” for El Salvador’s populist president Nayib Bukele, whose authoritarianism and suspension of constitutional guarantees to tackle gangs and insecurity has been widely condemned by the international community. Like Bukele, Pineda’s adept use of social media and, in particular, TikTok, where he has around a million followers, is widely considered key to his surge in the polls.
A survey published at the start of the month by the national daily?Prensa Libre?showed him as the surprise frontrunner, on 23.1% of voting intentions, ahead of other familiar faces more closely identified with the political establishment. Second with 19.5% of voting intentions was former first lady Sandra Torres (2008-2012) of the Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE), who was runner-up in the 2019 vote, followed by Edmond Mulet, a former diplomat, of Cabal on 10.1%.
The candidacy of Mulet, who previously ran in 2019 (for the Partido Humanista, taking 11% of the vote) also remains subject to doubt. This after the discredited attorney general’s office announced that it had requested the removal of his immunity from prosecution following a similar surge in the polls [WR-23-12].
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International response
In response to the TSE’s exclusion of Carlos Pineda, the European Union (EU), which has sent a mission to observe the 25 June elections, issued a statement in which it “notes with concern repeated decisions on exclusion of electoral candidacies”.
Earlier this month, Mexico’s Francisco Guerrero, the secretary for strengthening democracy for the Organization of American States (OAS), which is also deploying an electoral observer mission, told the media that the exclusion of candidates remained a “permanent concern”.
Continuing a trend
In its report on the most recent 2019 elections, the Organization of American States electoral observer mission (OAS-EOM) highlights the “judicialisation of elections”, noting that 416 petitions for nullity against decisions on registration of candidates were presented then, in contrast to 269 presented in 2015.
Thank you for reading LatinNews' chosen article from the Latin American Weekly Report, produced since 1967. The full report can be accessed here: Latin American Weekly Report -?25 May 2023
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