No guarantees, but trends do continue

Corona. Pandemic and economical impact. What could we possibly add to the continuous stream of news, discussions and reflections? At Van Storm we are no economical experts, let alone medical specialists. While reading their outlooks and listening to the assessments of the people that actually do have something to say about the current situation, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that we don’t know.

In the midst of worldwide attempts to contain the virus, societal lockdowns and government initiatives to dampen the economical downturn, it is difficult, if not impossible, for anyone to foresee how our world is going to look like the next couple of years, or even in a years’ time. In insecure times like these, there is a natural tendency to see doom and gloom in all developments. But as a historian by education and interest, I know that the one constant in history, is that the notion of the imminent end of times, is of all times…  And then the world keeps on turning.

I am not saying that these aren’t troublesome times. That the economy is not seriously affected by this pandemic. Yes, the coronacrisis is unprecedented, but so was every previous crisis in world history. Market bubbles that blow apart, financial systems that break down, empires collapsing, geo-political upheaval, the origins of crises come in great variety. There have even been pandemic induced economical downturns before. I am just stating this in an attempt to put our current situation in some sort of a historical perspective.

A perspective I also want to give to the impact on the Dutch labourmarket. As a recruiter by trade, the current crisis is the fourth I get to experience. I remember well sitting in the office of my first employer when the planes crashed into the WTC, while the internet bubble imploded. A similar vivid memory I have from the summer and fall of 2008, as an interim recruiter at an offshore client, when the financial markets collapsed and the oil prizes came crashing down. Not as economically widespread, but still with a major impact on the Dutch maritime industry, was the downturn in the oil prize again in 2014. And now we have the coronacrisis.

As said, each crisis had its own causes and its own dynamics, but besides the sentiment of the world collapsing, there were some recurring tendencies on the labourmarket. Each time companies took drastic measures when the crisis hit, bracing themselves for hard times ahead. Naturally, it is the right thing. To do whatever is necessary to ensure the continuety of a company. And for each company the situation is different. However, quite often, not too long after recruitment processes were frozen, headcounts were reduced and employees were laid off, the demand for good people revived. Even if the workload diminished somewhat, projects still continued and work needed to be executed. That didn’t change.

The undercurrent of the demographic development did not change either. Every time before a crisis hit, the ageing workforce was a hot topic. This was the case in 2000, upto the summer of 2008 and until recently. As one of the labourmarket-segments struggling most with this, many conferences, initiatives and government campaigns were focused on how to get the right people into the Engineering professions. Or how to interest and support the right Engineers to come to the Netherlands.

Every time once a crisis hit, the demographic worries were ignored or forgotten, just to resurrect with a vengeance soon after. Let’s keep this in mind and remind ourselves that until only 1,5 month ago the Netherlands was ‘suffering’ from an unemployment rate of less than 3 %. Understand that that figure was for the overall Dutch labourmarket and that the scarcity of Engineering professionals was far more pronounced. Combine this with the fact that projects still continue, and I am quite sure that new opportunities will arise. So, if you have lost your job recently or your contract was ended, with full understanding for the predicament you might be in, stay positive!