- Sept 10: U.S. Presidential Election Debates
This week, we'll witness the one and only debates between the two presidential candidates of the U.S. This event could have an impact on crypto markets as we watch for each candidate to address their stance on crypto, particularly for Kamala Harris since she has yet to state any meaningful takes on what her plans are for the industry. Additionally, the outcome of the debates could also shift the balance in polls, which would also have a likely effect on crypto prices in the near term.?
- Sept 12: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
In terms of economic data, the key data point that market participants will be anticipating this week is?labor data, as inflation has currently taken a back seat in regards to importance for the current state of the economy. The end of the week will see key labor data in initial jobless claims, which might have implications on the size of next week's rate cut decision.? ?
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Last week, we anticipated weakness in Bitcoin and highlighted that a break below $56k would likely see BTC drop to around the $50-54k region. We watched as Bitcoin hit the top of our support range box at roughly $52.5k before rebounding higher over the weekend.
One encouraging sign we could take from this price reaction is the quickness with which we recovered back to $55k as of this morning. But this could still just be a temporary pitstop, otherwise known as a dead cat bounce, before we continue further downwards and begin testing deeper into our support range box and the bottom boundary of our?descending broadening wedge.
Should both of the aforementioned support areas break down, we have one additional strong support, which is the $48k long-term pivot level. Given the significance of all three of these support levels, we are beginning to feel confident that prices will not break down much further below this region. Furthermore, we are starting to believe that these levels are potentially worth taking the risk to begin establishing long positions in BTC.?
The main reason is we are noticing similarities in indicators, timeframes, and support levels. First, the weekly RSI (bottom indicator) is currently in the same vicinity as where it was exactly one year ago, when Bitcoin was trading at $25k.
Next, it comes at a time when Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, having traded between $50-70k since March 2024. Previously, Bitcoin hit the bear market bottom in Nov 2022 before rallying until April 2023, and then proceeded to trade within a range between $25-32k for the better part of 2023 until we finally had a breakout in Oct 2023.
So give or take one month, BTC has exhibited a pattern in the past two years of rallying at the start of winter until the spring and range trading throughout the summer. Lastly, we see that both occurrences also took place around major pivot supports ($25k in 2023, $48-52k in 2024).
Now, due to recession fears and the uncertainty of the upcoming elections, we can see scenarios where we dip further in price. But we reiterate that we are nearing several major support levels and these can be seen as significant discount areas, where Bitcoin purchases will seem like a great value in the long-term. Should history repeat itself once again, we could be a few weeks away from BTC rallying to test all-time highs and beyond.?
- Mastercard?enables non-custodial crypto spending in new partnership Commentary: Global payment giant Mastercard is expanding its support for non-custodial cryptocurrency wallets in a new collaboration that enables users to spend crypto while “being their own bank.” After piloting a crypto debit card with the major self-custodial MetaMask wallet in August, Mastercard’s new partnership with the European crypto payments infrastructure provider Mercuryo will further connect traditional finance and crypto.
- Telegram?CEO Pavel Durov says he's prepared to 'leave markets that aren’t compatible' after France arrest Commentary: Telegram CEO Pavel Durov took to his messaging app to denounce the grounds of his recent arrest and say that he's prepared to leave incompatible markets. "Sometimes we can’t agree with a country’s regulator on the right balance between privacy and security. In those cases, we are ready to leave that country. We've done it many times," Durov said, citing Russia and Iran as examples. "We are prepared to leave markets that aren’t compatible with our principles because we are not doing this for money. We are driven by the intention to bring good and defend the basic rights of people, particularly in places where these rights are violated."
- Robinhood?to settle $3.9 million penalty with California DOJ over past crypto withdrawal restrictions Commentary: Robinhood’s cryptocurrency arm has settled an investigation into its past practice with a $3.9 million penalty as it failed to allow customers to withdraw crypto from 2018 to 2022. California’s Department of Justice said that Attorney General Rob Bonta has secured the $3.9 million settlement with Robinhood Crypto. The investigation concluded that customers could not withdraw their cryptocurrency and were forced to sell it back to Robinhood to exit the trading platform.
- EigenLayer?plans to distribute 86 million tokens to stakeholders in season 2 ‘stakedrop’ Commentary: Restaking protocol EigenLayer has announced the second season of its stakeholder airdrop, referred to as “stakedrop,” distributing 86 million EIGEN tokens to stakeholders, including stakers, node operators, ecosystem partners, and community members. The distribution targets participants active between March 15 and August 15 and is set to begin on or before September 17, 2024. This follows the initial launch of the protocol’s native token and the first stakedrop announced in April. The stakeholders can claim their share of the tokens starting September 17.
- CFTC?charges Uniswap with illegal derivatives trading Commentary: The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged decentralized exchange (DEX) developer Uniswap Labs with illegally offering leveraged cryptocurrency trading to US retail investors. The CFTC said Uniswap Labs agreed to settle the charges by paying a $175,000 civil penalty and by agreeing to cease violating the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). The CFTC’s enforcement division “will vigorously enforce the CEA as digital asset platforms and DeFi ecosystems evolve,” Ian McGinley, the CFTC’s director of enforcement, said in a statement. “DeFi operators must be vigilant to ensure that transactions comply with the law.”
- Polygon?developers transition MATIC token to POL Commentary: After a year of extensive community discussions, Polygon developers announced that its token migration to POL was live. This change introduces POL as the new ticker symbol for the native gas and staking token on the Polygon PoS chain. Exchanges are expected to list the upgraded token. MATIC holders on the Polygon PoS do not need to take any steps, as the upgrade to POL will occur automatically. However, MATIC holders on Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM, or centralized exchanges must actively migrate their tokens to POL via a migration contract.
- Major Swiss bank ZKB?launches Bitcoin and Ether trading Commentary: Zurich Cantonal Bank, one of the largest banks in Switzerland, is the latest banking institution to enable cryptocurrency trading for its customers. Zurich Cantonal Bank now offers trading and custody services for Bitcoin and Ether. “The offer is seamlessly integrated into the existing channels and is aimed equally at customers and third-party banks,” the bank said. ZKB customers will be able to trade cryptocurrencies 24/7 directly through the ZKB eBanking or ZKB Mobile Banking platforms. The bank noted that “the cryptocurrency holdings will be integrated into the existing portfolio view. "
- Ripple?and SEC agree to stay the $125M judgment, hinting at an appeal Commentary: The legal team defending Ripple Labs against a case filed by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission has requested to stay the monetary portion of an Aug. 7 judgment requiring the firm to pay $125 million. Ripple’s lawyers said the SEC had agreed to a request to delay payment of the judgment after Sept. 6. The legal team proposed that Ripple place 111% of the judgment amount — roughly $139 million — into a bank account until 30 days “after the time to appeal expires or the resolution of any appeal.”
- SEC?charges and settles with crypto-focused Galois Capital over custody issues Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has charged and subsequently settled with crypto-focused investment advisory firm Galois Capital over issues with how it held client assets. Starting in July 2022, Miami-based Galois failed to ensure that certain crypto held by the private fund it advised was "maintained with a qualified custodian," the SEC said. The agency added that Galois held certain crypto with crypto platforms, including FTX Trading LTD., which was not a qualified custodian.
- 21. co?launches Bitcoin wrapper on Ethereum Commentary: 21. co, the parent of cryptocurrency asset manager 21Shares, is launching its own Bitcoin wrapper - 21. co Wrapped Bitcoin (21BTC) - on the Ethereum blockchain network, according to a Sept. 3 announcement. 21. co said user protections include cold storage and regulated third-party custodians. It is partnering with market maker Flow Trader to manage the issuance of 21BTC. Bitcoin wrappers are ERC-20 tokens - or other smart-contract compatible tokens - backed by BTC.
- Matter Labs?CEO announces company restructuring, layoffs Commentary: Alex Gluchowski, CEO and co-founder of Matter Labs, announced on Sept. 3 that the company was restructuring and cutting 16% of its workforce. According to Gluchowski, Matter Labs - the creator of Ethereum scaling solution ZKsync - has always thrived with a smaller team and has restructured the company to meet the needs of a rapidly evolving market. In September 2023, Matter Labs launched the ZKsync Ecosystem Portal in collaboration with DappRadar, which was touted as a major step in fully decentralizing ZKsync’s ecosystem.
- CFTC?recovers $18 million worth of crypto from alleged commodity pool Ponzi scheme Commentary: The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission recovered $18 million worth of digital assets tied to an alleged commodity pool Ponzi scheme. Oregon man Sam Ikkurty was accused of defrauding investors from a purported "crypto hedge fund." Allegedly, Ikkurty promised to return "net profits" to investors but failed to do so, even failing to tell investors that the fund's performance fell 98.99% within months, according to a release from the CFTC.
- OKX?receives major payment institution license in Singapore Commentary: OKX's Singapore entity has received a Major Payment Institution license from the city-state's central bank. OKX SG can offer digital payment token and cross-border money transfer services, which includes the buying and selling of crypto. The company has also appointed Gracie Lin as CEO of OKX SG to oversee the development of new products and services it is now permitted to offer Singaporean customers.?
- Qatar?introduces regulatory framework for digital assets Commentary: A judge banned the use of social-media platform X in Brazil, the culmination of a months-long battle over allegations the platform was used to spread disinformation and Musk's free-speech retort. Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ruled that internet service providers must block X in the country of about 215 million people. Local media reported that anyone who uses a VPN to circumvent the ban could be subject to a fine amounting to 50,000 reais ($8,900). For cryptocurrencies, the decision cuts Brazilian users off from a platform that has for years served as the industry's town square.
- HashKey and Kaia?partner to boost Web3 adoption in Asia Commentary: HashKey Group, a digital asset services provider in Asia, announced its partnership with Kaia, formerly Klaytn. The partnership aims to accelerate the adoption of Web3 technology in the Asian and global markets. The collaboration will focus on digital finance, content creation and security and coincides with the merger between Kaia and Finschia, which was initially approved on Feb. 15. Finschia is a blockchain platform developed by Line Tech Plus, a subsidiary of the Japanese messaging corporate Line.
- Metaplanet?teams up with SBI VC trade for Bitcoin custody Commentary: Japanese investment adviser Metaplanet, which adopted bitcoin as a reserve asset earlier this year, said it tapped SBI VC Trade to provide custody services. SBI VC Trade, a unit of Tokyo-based SBI Holdings, prioritizes tax efficiency and offers the potential to use BTC as collateral for financing. SBI Holdings is a financial services company that manages around 27.2 trillion yen ($185 billion). SBI VC Trade is a crypto exchange regulated by Japan's Financial Services Agency.
- Cardano’s Chang Hard Fork?goes live, introducing on-chain governance Commentary: Cardano activated its highly anticipated “Chang” upgrade, marking the ecosystem's long-planned shift towards decentralized governance. With the Chang upgrade now live, ADA token holders will be able to shape Cardano's future by electing governance representatives and voting on development proposals. CIP-1694, an official "Cardano Improvement Proposal," establishes three user-led governance bodies: the Constitutional Committee, Delegate Representatives (dReps), and Stake Pool Operators (SPOs). Moving forward, Cardano's three founding entities—the Cardano Foundation, Input Output Global (IOHK) and Emurgo—will no longer have the keys to trigger chain upgrades or hard forks.?Instead, that responsibility will be delegated to the new governance groups.
- ‘Google of South Korea’?launches crypto wallet for 33M users Commentary: South Korean tech conglomerate Naver is launching its first-ever crypto wallet, Naver Pay Wallet, in partnership with the sport-focused blockchain Chiliz. The wallet is available to over 33 million Naver users. Naver runs the country’s most used search engine?and was the most visited website in South Korea last month with 1.7 billion visits. The wallet is managed by Naver subsidiary Naver Pay, which reportedly has over 97,000 merchant users.
- September 11?- U.S. Consumer Price Index for August
- September 12 -?U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
- September 17?- U.S. Retail Sales
- September 18?- U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- September 27?- BTC CME August (BTCU24) Options Expiry
- November 7?- U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
