July 18: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims?
With last week's CPI reading coming in at +3% y/y, the lowest the reading has been since June 2023, this week's focus should be on additional signs of labor market weakness. The trajectory of both data readings have set the right conditions for a rate cut, with the odds of at least one rate cut in September at over 88%, as of time of writing. This easing narrative should help crypto markets move higher in the near term.
Bitcoin's rally has picked up this morning after gaining steam over the weekend, which coincided with the German government finishing its nearly $2.9 billion worth of Bitcoin liquidations.?The sales began in the beginning of June 2024, which weighed heavily on BTC price. Bitcoin fell over 25% from a peak of $72k to $51.5k in a span of just under 30 days.?
With the overhang of a big seller now out of the way, Bitcoin has rebounded nicely, recovering above its 200-day moving average after trading underneath it for 1.5 weeks.?Another positive sign we are seeing is U.S BTC ETFs have been seeing some significant inflows. July 12th alone saw over $300 million of net inflows and last week's total inflows amounted to over $1 billion.
However, even with the strength that BTC is exhibiting currently, we are not yet out of the woods. From a technical perspective, $64k will be a key resistance level that needs to be overcome first.?
Additionally, last month's narrative of overhangs included a few additional entities, the largest of which is Mt. Gox. Although distributions from the defunct exchange have begun, it seems the bulk of distributions is to come in the following weeks. The Mt. Gox creditor repayment timeline notes that refunds are being processed through five exchanges, each with varying timelines for coin distribution. Some entities have already received and distributed their allocated funds, but the exact timing for when the remaining exchanges will distribute coins remains unclear.?
What we do know is that Kraken has the longest window among the exchanges, with 90 days to complete distribution. Bitstamp has a 60-day timeframe, while BitGo has a 20-day deadline. With the announcement release indicating that July 5 was when?distributions began, that gives us an approximate date of July 25 as a day to keep in mind.
The Mt. Gox trustee still holds $5.4 billion for future distributions. Although the distribution is likely to be a mix of fiat and BTC and this will dilute the total potential selling effect, it will still be an event to monitor going forward. With that said, if we are to assume that this would potentially be the end of the sell pressure in the near-term, it could also serve as a decent opportunity to gain exposure to Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
We may also have one additional bullish catalyst coming in the near future with the potential launch of the Ethereum ETF in the U.S. While no official launch date has been given, some industry experts are calling for an approval as early as this week, although these claims have not been substantiated.?
We'll be keeping a close eye on the ETHBTC pair, as it currently sits above the 200-day moving average but under a multi-year downward trendline. A break above this trendline could signal a further continuation to the 0.065 level in the near-term, which would equate to roughly $4000.?
- Goldman Sachs?is to ?launch 3 new tokenization products this year Commentary: Goldman Sachs is preparing to launch three new tokenization products later this year in the United States and Europe following “a major uptick in interest from clients” in crypto. Goldman Sachs plans to create marketplaces for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) and would focus on the “fund complex” in the United States and European debt markets, according to the report.
- SEC?drops its investigation into BUSD stablecoin following a probe into Paxos Commentary: Paxos said it received a “formal termination notice” on July 9, which said the SEC would not recommend enforcement against the firm in the investigation of BUSD. The SEC issued a notice to crypto infrastructure provider Paxos last year over its involvement in Binance USD stablecoin. Later, the SEC sued Binance and in its complaint said that BUSD was a security.
- Coinbase?launches unified on-chain monitoring through a new wallet app Commentary: Coinbase is releasing a new version of its crypto wallet that will allow users to access their portfolios from multiple platforms in a single place. Users will be able to connect any self-custodial wallet supported by Wallet Connect, including MetaMask and Phantom wallets, to have an aggregated view of assets across applications. Users don’t need to have a Coinbase wallet to use the service. According to Coinbase, the solution seeks to address retail user demand to track non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and decentralized finance (DeFi) positions across wallets.
- NY Judge?rejects Coinbase's efforts to subpoena SEC Chair Gary Gensler, says she is surprised 'not in a good way' Commentary: Coinbase and the U.S. SEC have clashed over the past month on the exchange’s subpoena asking for Chair Gary Gensler’s personal emails and information from before he was sworn in as chair in 2021. Judge Failla said she "was just not moved by basically any of the arguments." She ultimately decided it would be best for Coinbase to file a motion to compel, though she did not seem persuaded by the exchange's push for a subpoena.
- MicroStrategy?plans a 10-for-1 stock split to boost accessibility Commentary: Nasdaq-listed business intelligence firm MicroStrategy’s board of directors has announced a 10-for-1 stock split of the company’s Class A and B common stock. MicroStrategy said the stock split aims to increase accessibility for its investors and employees. Within the announcement, the publicly traded firm also said it considers itself a Bitcoin development company. The company said it’s dedicated to developing the Bitcoin network through its activities within the financial markets.
- BitMEX?pleads guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act in anti-money laundering case Commentary: The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York announced that cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX pled guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act. The exchange willfully failed to establish, implement, and maintain an adequate anti-money laundering program, according to a statement.
- Vitalik Buterin?pushes for Ethereum to respond to 51% attacks in a more automated way Commentary: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is advocating for the Ethereum network to be more prepared for the hypothetical case of censorship under a 51% attack. “This is the thing I’m advocating we do more research on, and we build,” he said in a keynote speech at ETHCC in Brussels. He argued that an automated response to such attacks should be prepared, which would reduce the weight on the social layer.
- Uniswap?cites Chevron in another urge for SEC to drop bid to rule over DeFi Commentary: Uniswap Labs, the developer behind the Uniswap decentralized exchange, has again pressed the US Securities and Exchange Commission to drop its proposal to rule over decentralized finance (DeFi), citing a recent landmark Supreme Court decision. Its new argument is that with the Chevon decision, courts are no longer required to defer to federal agencies to interpret ambiguous laws. Uniswap said this means the SEC will be merely wasting “limited resources” trying to get the definition of “exchange” amended, which had already been “likely to draw, and unlikely to survive, a judicial challenge” even before the Chevron decision.
- Australia’s?main stock exchange to get second spot Bitcoin ETF Commentary: Blockchain-focused asset manager DigitalX has received regulatory approval to launch its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which will become the second Bitcoin ETF to trade on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). It comes a little over three weeks after the ASX approved VanEck’s spot Bitcoin ETF on June 15, which commenced trading on June 20. The VanEck Bitcoin ETF (VBTC) closed its first trading day with $1.3 million in volume — far below the $450 million daily average seen by the nine United States-based spot Bitcoin ETFs across their first 10 trading days.
- Former FTX execs?Nishad Singh and Gary Wang will face sentencing later this year Commentary: FTX co-founder Gary Wang and FTX's former Engineering Director Nishad Singh will be sentenced later this year after testifying against their former colleague Sam Bankman-Fried. Nishad Singh will be sentenced on October 30 in a New York courtroom, while Wang will face sentencing on November 20. Both could face decades in prison, but cooperators will “likely receive a heavy reduction in their sentence,” said Braden Perry, partner at Kennyhertz Perry and a former federal enforcement attorney.
- VanEck and 21Shares?send amended Ether ETF filings to SEC Commentary: Asset management companies VanEck and 21Shares have amended their S-1 registrations with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list and trade spot Ether exchange-traded fund shares. The amended filings are part of the last stage of approvals required by the SEC before asset management firms can list shares of spot Ether ETFs. Bitwise filed its own amended registration on July 3, and experts predict that other companies will follow in the next seven days.
- Bybit?lists Hamster Kombat’s token for pre-market trading Commentary: Cryptocurrency exchange Bybit is advancing its support for emerging projects on The Open Network (TON) by listing the token for the record-breaking game Hamster Kombat for pre-market trading. The platform is designed for trading new tokens before their official listing, enabling buyers and sellers to establish quotes and execute trades at predetermined prices. While HMSTR is now listed on Bybit Pre-Market Trading, it’s unknown when the Hamster Kombat’s token will start spot trading.
- Analyst tips?Solana ETF?deadline for mid-March after new filings Commentary: Spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) should see a final decision deadline around the middle of March next year after the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) filed applications on Monday to list VanEck and 21Shares' proposed ETFs. The CBOE likened the prospective Solana funds to spot Bitcoin and spot Ether ETFs, which the SEC approved in January and May, respectively. It said that Solana’s decentralization, throughput, and speed made it resistant to manipulation that could harm investors.
- Taiwan Mobile?receives a VASP license, entry to the crypto market Commentary: Taiwan Mobile, the country’s second-largest telecommunications provider, has received a virtual asset service provider (VASP) license from the country’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC), according to local reports. The license creates a path for it to open a cryptocurrency exchange. Taiwan Mobile, called Taiwan Big Brother in Chinese, is the 26th company to be licensed as a VASP. It has been eyeing a place in the crypto market for over a year, according to Bloomberg, which speculated that Taiwan Mobile was seeking to buy an existing exchange.
- Mid-July?- Spot ETH ETF Launch Date (Bloomberg Analyst Projection)
- July 26?- Bitcoin July 2024 Futures Contracts (BTCN24) Expiration
- July 26?-?U.S. Core PCE Price Index
- July 31?- U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- August 14?- U.S. Consumer Price Index for July
