Inflation will be front and center this week, with U.S. CPI being the main focus in regards to economic data indicators to be scrutinized, as?concerns over higher U.S. inflation were sparked after the ISM PMI sharply increased last week, leading to sell-offs across crypto and traditional markets.? ? ? ?
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update
The market is currently on edge, with Bitcoin testing critical support levels due to concerns over a more hawkish Fed that has hinted at fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously anticipated. As we highlighted last update, we can see the importance that the $90-92.5k region is holding. It has now been tested 6 times as support since BTC broke above into $100k territory. The more times that a support is tested, it can lead to breakdowns of that support level, so it is crucial for us to break higher in the near term to remove the threat of BTC moving lower.
However, two issues that we have to deal with overhead are 2 near-term moving averages (Orange line: 10-day, Purple line: 50-day) located at roughly $96-97k and a descending trendline from the last two BTC highs. If we're not able to break above the aforementioned levels, the potential downside would have BTC first contend with the 200-day moving average (Blue line) at $86k and a long standing pivot level at $83k.?
One thing to note is that we have the weekly buys of MicroStrategy coming up soon, which have been happening since early November. To keep track of the purchases, refer to the following website: https://saylortracker.com/
The announcements have all coincided with the same time every week, which has fallen on Monday evenings in Asia time zones. While the messages come after the fact and it is difficult to determine exactly when the purchases happen, it has been indicated that that they occur close to the time that the announcements are made, so we can assume it is occurring some time over the weekend or early Monday morning, EST.?
Looking at the schedule of purchases above, it is hard to determine a pattern, as we see an equal number of price decreases to price increases slightly before each announcement. It should also be noted that the purchase sizes have decreased drastically, with the November purchases in the billions of dollars versus the last purchase only totaling $100M.
However, it is still a sizeable purchase that we can look towards in the next half-day as hopefully some relief from the current downtrend that we are in. But we will still require additional boosts, which could come in the form of a Trump inauguration rally (Jan 20) or any positive economic data readings throughout this week, which we will be monitoring closely.? ?
- Lummis?poised to lead newly created Senate digital assets subcommittee Commentary: The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is poised to have crypto-friendly Sen. Cynthia Lummis lead its newly created digital asset subcommittee, fulfilling a promise made by its incoming chair.? Some Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee "tentatively selected" Republican subcommittee leaders and members, but that will not be official until the committee votes on those.
- Standard Chartered?debuts crypto services in Europe with new license Commentary: Standard Chartered, one of the world’s largest banks, is debuting cryptocurrency services in Europe after obtaining a digital asset license in Luxembourg. The bank announced that it is establishing a new entity in Luxembourg to act as its European Union regulatory entry point for offering crypto and digital asset custody services. At launch, Standard Chartered’s crypto offering in the EU will be limited to Bitcoin and Ether, with more assets coming later in 2025. Standard Chartered’s crypto products in the EU will also exclusively feature crypto custody or the service for storing and protecting digital assets on behalf of their owners.
- South Korea?seeks to lift the ban on institutional trading of cryptocurrencies Commentary: South Korea is planning to lift its de facto ban on local institutions trading cryptocurrencies, Yonhap news agency reported on Wednesday, citing the Financial Services Commission (FSC). The FSC, the country's top financial regulator, reportedly intends to gradually allow institutional investors to open trading accounts on crypto exchanges. The regulator plans to actively work with the Digital Asset Committee, a policy advisory group under the FSC, and start by allowing non-profit organizations first. Although the country has not stipulated a ban on institutional investors, the FSC has advised banks to forbid institutions from opening accounts on exchanges.
- Movement Labs?to close $100M VC round Commentary: Movement Labs, a Web3 startup building an Ethereum layer-2 (L2) network, is preparing to close a venture financing round expected to raise $100 million, according to a Jan. 8 report by Fortune. The venture round would reportedly value Movement at approximately $3 billion. The deal will establish Movement as the latest blockchain developer to attain “unicorn” status by being valued at more than $1 billion. Other recently minted unicorns include Celestia and Story Protocol, according to Crunchbase.
- Hyperliquid?responds to community concerns over validator issues Commentary: Hyper Foundation responded to allegations that validator seats on the Hyperliquid network could be purchased, clarifying that all validators were selected based on their performance during the testnet phase. Critics have raised concerns about excessive centralization and a lack of transparency within Hyperliquid’s validator setup.
- Sonic SVM?launches multimillion-dollar fund for Web3 gaming, AI agents Commentary: Sonic, a Solana layer-2 blockchain, and venture investment firm Galaxy Interactive have announced a new fund to advance Web3 gaming and other emerging cryptocurrency sectors. The announcement comes as excitement grows around artificial intelligence agents. Sonic, the first gaming-focused Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) L2 network, announced the launch of the G.A.M.E. (Game, AI, Meme, Ecosystem) Fund 1, to accelerate the developments of Web3 games, AI agents and social media content creation tools on HyperGrid.
- Czech National Bank?weighs bitcoin purchases for potential reserve asset diversification Commentary: Czech National Bank (?NB) governor Ale? Michl discussed the possibility of bitcoin as part of the bank's reserve diversification strategy in an interview on Monday. Michl revealed that he had suggested the Czech central bank purchase bitcoin to diversify its asset holdings but clarified that there are no plans to acquire any cryptocurrency. The news follows the Czech government's approval of a capital gains tax exemption for long-term bitcoin holdings in early December. Last month, the Czech Republic passed a law that exempts bitcoin holdings of over three years from capital gains tax.
- FTX EU?acquired by Backpack Exchange, an exchange founded by previous FTX and Alameda employees Commentary: FTX EU has been acquired by Backpack Exchange following regulatory and legal approval. Backpack EU will take responsibility for distributing the previously court-approved FTX bankruptcy claims. Backpack is a crypto exchange and digital wallet platform founded by former FTX and Alameda Research employee. The exchange acquired a MiFID II license to facilitate its global expansion and offerings across the EU after previously securing a key license from the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority.
- Ripple?partners with Chainlink to boost RLUSD stablecoin in DeFi markets Commentary: Ripple, a blockchain-based payment protocol, has partnered with Chainlink, a decentralized oracle network, to improve the adoption and utility of its Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. The collaboration, announced on Jan. 7, will provide price feeds for RLUSD on Ethereum and the XRP Ledger, which aim to support cost-effective transactions and DeFi use cases for the enterprise-grade stablecoin.
- NY judge?grants Coinbase's move for an interlocutory appeal, putting SEC's case on pause Commentary: U.S. District Judge for the Southern District of New York, Judge Katherine Polk Failla, granted Coinbase's move for an interlocutory appeal in an opinion and order filed on Tuesday. Interlocutory appeals, which are appeals made before a judge makes a final decision, are rarely granted. The case will next go to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals where that court will likely take the case on. Judge Katherine Polk Failla also said that “conflicting decision” require the Second Circuit’s insight in her opinion filed on Tuesday.
- Winklevoss-led Gemini Trust Co.?agrees to pay $5 million to settle CFTC charges in proposed order Commentary: Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss-led Gemini Trust Company has agreed to pay $5 million to end a case brought by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission over misleading statements it made to the regulator. In a "proposed consent order" on Monday signed by the CFTC and Gemini, the company agreed to settle while not admitting or denying the allegations in the agency's complaint. The agency said Gemini made untrue statements between July 2017 and December 2017 to the CFTC when it was being evaluated for a bitcoin futures contract.
- GSR?secures UK FCA approval, expands regulated crypto services Commentary: GSR Markets UK, a subsidiary of the global cryptocurrency trading firm GSR, has received regulatory approval from the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), allowing the company to operate as a licensed crypto asset business. The approval makes GSR the first crypto liquidity provider to achieve dual regulatory authorization from both the FCA and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). GSR’s expansion of its operational scope will enable the firm to facilitate services such as over-the-counter (OTC) and programmatic execution trading for UK clients.
- Pro-crypto Pierre Poilievre?leads Polymarket odds to become Canada's next prime minister, replacing Justin Trudeau Commentary: Pierre Poilievre, the pro-crypto politician and head of Canada's Conservative Party, leads Polymarket odds for who will replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister after Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday. Users of the decentralized prediction platform placed $257,000 in bets on Poilievre, giving the conservative politician 89% odds in favor of winning the upcoming federal election expected this spring. The market on who will be Canada's next prime minister, which opened on Dec. 30, 2024, accrued $412,095 in total trading volume as of Monday.
- Metaplanet?aims to boost holdings to over 10,000 bitcoin this year Commentary: Japanese investment firm Metaplanet wants to expand its bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC in 2025, an increase of more than fivefold from its current treasury, as it maintains a positive outlook on the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Simon Gerovich, CEO of Metaplanet, wrote that the company intends to boost its bitcoin treasury to 10,000 BTC by “utilizing the most accretive capital market tools available to us.” It currently holds about 1,761.98 BTC ($175.4 million).
- Ethena?plans major expansion with Telegram payments and institution-focused iUSDe token in bid to become a ‘neobank’ Commentary: Synthetic stablecoin protocol Ethena plans to launch a new synthetic dollar savings token geared towards financial incumbents and Telegram-based payments app in Q1 2025. In 2025, the team plans to launch a new dollar savings product as well as a native FinTech/web2 payment solution on the messaging platform Telegram.
- Coinbase?gains key license to offer derivatives in Europe through acquisition of Bux's Cyprus unit Commentary: Coinbase in October acquired the Cyprus unit of European brokerage Bux, securing an EU MiFID II license that will allow the company to expand its derivatives offerings to select EU countries. The company has yet to operationalize the license, though it has rebranded the company to Coinbase Financial Services Europe, according to a report from Finance Magnates.
- Circle?contributes 1M USDC to Trump’s Inauguration Committee Commentary: Stablecoin issuer Circle has donated 1 million USD Coin to President-elect Donald Trump’s Inauguration Committee, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire wrote on Jan. 9. The acceptance of the donation by the president-elect’s Inauguration Committee represents a maturation of the nascent asset class. In June, Paul Ryan, the former US Speaker of the House, wrote that stablecoins could alleviate the national debt crisis and protect the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency.
- Pro-crypto lawyer John Deaton offers to probe?Operation Chokepoint 2.0 Commentary: Former United States prosecutor and crypto advocate John Deaton has offered the incoming Trump administration to lead a probe into Operation Chokepoint 2.0 — an unconfirmed initiative that allegedly attempted to cut crypto companies from the traditional banking system. “This isn’t just a fight for crypto, it’s a fight against the erosion of institutional integrity and the unchecked power of unelected bureaucrats,” Deaton said in the X post, which was also addressed to Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnik and David Sacks, who will lead Trump’s AI and crypto “czar.”
- January 15?- U.S. Consumer Price Index for November
- January 15?- U.S. Retail Sales
- January 29?- U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- January 31?- BTC CME December (BTCF25) Options Expiry
