- Feb 7: U.S. Non-farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate?
While U.S. employment data readings will be on most radars by the end of the week, the real pulse of the market will be following the ongoing trade war headlines, which are affecting crypto and traditional risk assets. We'll need to be monitoring any further retaliations from other countries and whether any reconciliations or resolutions can be made in an effort to stabilize markets moving forward.?
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update
What started with the DeepSeek situation that shook markets last week has now turned into full-fledged turmoil, as the Trump administration's tariff tactics have ramped up beyond just threats into action and were already being met by retaliation from some of the affected countries. With all crypto assets already softened by the downturn in traditional markets due to DeepSeek, the events over the weekend have led to even more losses for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as of this morning.
As of time of writing, Bitcoin has broken below a trendline (red line) that would have given some hope for bullish continuation in the near-term had it served as support. However, it was broken through convincingly and we've now moved onto a major pivot level found at the $90 - 92.5k range. While we could still see a reversal at any time if reports of tariff reconciliations are true, the given structure does require some caution moving forward.
One thing to note is the RSI (bottom indicator) is in overbought territory, so this could be as far as price action goes for the time-being. We'll be watching for this level to hold, but if it is not able to, we could see BTC fall below $90k, with the next major support level at $83k.?
Additionally, a considerable amount of buy orders are currently in the BTCUSDT orderbook on Binance at $90k, so while these orders could be pulled at any moment, it could be where we hold the line in this current drop.? ?
- US SEC?approves Bitwise's combined Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved a filing from NYSE Arca to list and trade shares for Bitwise's combined Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund. Bitwise's new fund has exposure to spot bitcoin and ether and would hold both assets as well as cash, according to the filing. The agency previously approved filings in December 2024 from Nasdaq and the Cboe BZX Exchange to list and trade shares of crypto index ETFs from Hashdex and Franklin Templeton, respectively.
- ECB?president?‘confident’ Bitcoin will not enter central bank reserves Commentary: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde suggested the Czech National Bank was unlikely to approve of adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset following a conversation with its governor. Speaking to members of the press on Jan. 30, Lagarde said the European Council held the view that reserves of central banks have to be “liquid, secure and safe,” implying that they would not include Bitcoin. She added that she was “confident” that BTC would not enter the reserves of banks under the council.
- Czech central bank?approves proposal to assess investing reserves in bitcoin Commentary: The board of the Czech National Bank approved a proposal on Thursday to analyze the options for investing in additional asset classes, including bitcoin. The board said it would decide next steps based on the analysis, with no changes made until then. Any new reserve portfolio investments will then be disclosed in its quarterly and annual reports. If a bitcoin allocation is approved, the CNB would become the first central bank known to hold the foremost cryptocurrency.
- Illinois?considering strategic Bitcoin reserve with 5-year hodl strategy Commentary: Illinois has become the latest US state to advance a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, seeking to deploy the world’s first cryptocurrency as a financial savings technology. Introduced by Illinois State Representative John Cabello, House Bill 1844 (HB1844) proposes the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve as a “special fund in the state treasury for the purpose of holding Bitcoin as a financial asset.” Notably, the bill proposes a minimum five-year Bitcoin holding strategy after the creation of the fund, according to the filing: “Provides that the State Treasurer shall hold all Bitcoin deposited into the Fund for a duration of at least 5 years from the date that the Bitcoin enters the State’s custody.”
- Crypto follows equities into risk-off mode?amid DeepSeek disruption and bearish FOMC expectations Commentary: The cryptocurrency market kicked off the week in risk-off mode, with bitcoin slipping below the $100,000 threshold for the first time since Jan. 16. This decline coincides with mounting macroeconomic unease ahead of Thursday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and fresh disruptions in the tech sector stemming from China-based research lab DeepSeek's latest AI breakthrough. DeepSeek unveiled a free, open-source large-language model in late December, claiming it was built in just two months for under $6 million. The project relied on reduced-capability Nvidia H800 chips, underscoring the efficiency of its approach.
- KuCoin?pleads guilty to US charges, agrees to pay $300M Commentary: KuCoin has pleaded guilty to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business and agreed to pay nearly $300 million in a settlement with the US, with its founders also forced to resign from the crypto exchange. The plea includes a forfeiture of $184.5 million and a $112.9 million fine, and KuCoin will exit the US market for two years. The exchange’s founders, Michael Gan and Eric Tang, will also forfeit $2.7 million and “will no longer have any role in KuCoin’s management or operations” in a deferred prosecution agreement.
- Cboe BZX?takes a crack at 'in-kind' redemptions for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Commentary: The equities exchange posted an amended rule filing on Monday that would allow for in-kind redemptions and creations for the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF. Ahead of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approvals for spot bitcoin ETFs over a year ago, firms were hashing out technical details over how the redemption process would work for those products.
- Maple Finance?debuts Bitcoin-linked yield offering for institutional investors Commentary: Decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Maple Finance has announced a new derivatives product to tackle institutional clients’ demand for digital assets. According to Maple, the new product will buy Bitcoin call options using yield from collateralized crypto loans. Designed for institutional investors with a minimum buy-in of 100,000 USD Coin, it promises exposure to BTC with downside protection against BTC underperformance. The new product has a floor annual percentage yield (APY) of 4%, with the possibility of a maximum APY of 33%.
- Jupiter?acquires majority stake in Moonshot, announces 'Jupnet' and $10 million AI fund at Catstanbul event Commentary: Solana DEX aggregator Jupiter, as part of its “Catstanbul” event, announced its acquisition of memecoin platform Moonshot, launched a $10 million fund for open-source AI development in conjunction with Eliza Labs, and introduced the ‘Jupnet’ omnichain network, currently in early testnet. Jupiter also debuted a ‘V2’ version of the platform, declaring the platform is once again in beta as new features are added for “every single part of the stack.”
- Virtuals?expands to Solana ecosystem, establishes strategic SOL reserve Commentary: AI agent platform Virtuals Protocol has announced it will expand into the Solana ecosystem, and industry participants are saying the integration will have more impact than “most people realize.” Virtuals will introduce several new features on the Solana network, including a Strategic Solana reserve, where 1% of trading fees will be converted to SOL to build a reserve to “support and reward agents” and creators within the ecosystem.
- Saylor?signals impending purchase as BTC consolidates around $104K Commentary: MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor posted the Bitcoin tracker for the 12th consecutive week, signaling an impending Bitcoin purchase on Jan. 27. The company's most recent purchase of 11,000 BTC occurred on Jan. 21, at an average purchase price of $101,191 per coin. MicroStrategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin despite a pullback from the recent all-time high of $108,786 on Jan. 20, after President Trump signaled the potential inclusion of other digital assets in the United States strategic reserve.
- Andreessen Horowitz?to close UK office to focus on US crypto efforts Commentary: Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz will be pulling back its operations in the UK in response to US President Donald Trump’s “strong policy momentum” on crypto. Anthony Albanese, chief operating officer of Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto arm, said the firm had been encouraged by “enthusiasm for crypto building and adoption” in the UK but still planned to close its office. The venture capital firm opened its London crypto office in 2023, saying at the time the country was a “predictable business environment.” Former Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak was serving as UK prime minister at the time, but power shifted to the Labour Party following a July 2024 election.
- February 25?- FTX Preliminary Distribution Repayments Begin
- February 28?- BTC CME February (BTCG25) Options Expiry
- March 19?- U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- March 28?- BTC CME March (BTCH25) Options Expiry
