- Feb 27: U.S. Core PCE / Initial Jobless Claims?/ GDP
Markets this week will be on the lookout for the?PCE Price Index print for January, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Also keep watch on GDP and unemployment numbers to see if the state of the U.S. economy continues to erode. ?
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update
Bitcoin has established a lower high at the $100k range resistance. In its current situation, it appears that a support break is more likely to follow unless BTC exhibits some signs of strength in the near future. This means a retest of critical support levels can unfold as early as this week.
Should this support break happen, the nearest support to follow would be found near the bottom of the rising parallel channel that BTC has been trading within since the end of 2024 after the U.S. election saw BTC rise in price to the $100k range to begin with. This would be roughly at $94k. Ideally, we would see a retest of this region followed by a quick reversal back to the upside, which would keep the channel intact and lead us to believe that BTC will continue trading within this range until the next bullish catalyst takes us on another leg higher.?
Should we get a deeper dip than expected, we'll look to the $90-92k range to hold, but as mentioned several times before, this major pivot level has been retested several times in the past 3 months, and another retest could lead to a breakdown of this level, which would bring up the prospect that the current bull market is over for the time-being. One thing to watch for is a descending trendline (dotted blue line) that has flipped from previous resistance in Dec-Jan to support in Feb. Nevertheless, $90k will need to hold the line for markets to remain bullish in the mid-term.?
One indicator to keep an eye on is the Hash Ribbons (bottom indicator), which flipped into capitulation earlier this month.?The Bitcoin Hash Ribbon indicator tries to identify periods where Bitcoin miners are in distress and may be capitulating. The assumption is that such periods can occur when the price of BTC is at major lows, and may therefore present a good opportunity to buy the dip. Once capitulation happens, we wait for the ribbons to move back above their moving averages, which would trigger a buy signal, at least as long as past occurrences repeat again.?
Furthermore, we should get a resolution of the direction that BTC will take in the near term, as we can see a tightening of the Bollinger bands compressing around this current period. We'll be watching to see which direction BTC price breaks.?
- Canary Capital’s proposed?spot Litecoin ETF?added to DTCC website Commentary: Canary Capital’s U.S. spot Litecoin exchange-traded fund has been added to the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation’s list of ETFs on its official website. The DTCC is a provider of post-trade clearance, settlement, custody, and information services, according to the Nasdaq. On DTCC, the Canary Litecoin ETF was given the ticker symbol LTCC. The DTCC listing, spotted earlier today by Pheonix News, is generally considered a positive signal for an ETF that’s looking to launch.
- SEC?launches new unit focused on protecting investors against fraud in crypto and AI Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is creating a new unit within its agency to protect investors from bad actors in crypto and artificial intelligence. The agency announced the new unit on Thursday, calling it the Cyber and Emerging Technologies Unit, or CETU, according to a statement. CETU will replace the Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit, which was created in 2022 under the former Biden administration.
- Utah’s Bitcoin reserve bill?heads to second Senate reading Commentary: Utah has passed its Bitcoin reserve bill through the Senate Revenue and Taxation Committee, putting Bitcoin one step closer to becoming one of the state’s reserve assets. The HB230 “Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendments” bill passed Utah’s revenue and taxation subcommittee in a 4-2-1 vote on Feb. 20 and is now headed to a second and third reading before a final Senate vote is made. The Bitcoin reserve bill has already passed through the House, so if it clears the Senate, Utah’s Republican Governor Spencer Cox would simply then need to sign the bill into law for Bitcoin to become a state reserve asset.
- Microsoft?is boosting capacity to support OpenAI’s GPT-4-5, GPT-5 models Commentary: Engineers at Microsoft are boosting infrastructure capacity in preparation for the latest iterations of OpenAI’s large language models, the first of which could be implemented by the end of February. Sources close to Microsoft informed Tom Warren of The Verge that the software giant plans to host OpenAI’s newest GPT-4.5 as early as next week. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently disclosed that the company plans to “next ship GPT-4.5,” but didn’t provide an exact date.
- SEC?first pausing crypto lawsuits with imminent deadlines Commentary: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly been prioritizing pausing cryptocurrency enforcement cases with imminent deadlines, which is partly why the securities regulator hasn’t yet paused its lawsuits against crypto firms Ripple and Kraken, according to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett. The next court deadline for Ripple, the XRP Ledger blockchain network’s developer, isn’t until April 16. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency exchange Kraken’s next deadline is March 31, Terrett said in a Feb. 19 X post, citing several unnamed sources.
- 10 stablecoin issuers approved under?EU’s MiCA?- Tether is left out Commentary: Ten firms are currently approved to issue stablecoins in the European Union under the supranational organization’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework. According to Patrick Hansen, senior director of EU strategy and policy at Circle, the list includes Banking Circle, stablecoin issuer Circle, Crypto.Com, Fiat Republic, Membrane Finance, Quantoz Payments, Schuman Financial, Societe Generale, StabIR and Stable Mint. Noticeably absent from the list was Tether, the issuer of USDt - the world’s largest stablecoin by market capitalization at over $141 billion at the time of this writing - highlighting the delicate balance between regulation and market opportunities.
- Binance?resumes USD deposit, withdrawal services for US customers Commentary: Binance.US, the US-based affiliate of global cryptocurrency exchange Binance, has resumed US dollar deposits and withdrawals following nearly 18 months of restrictions, citing regulatory clarity. US dollar services are back on Binance.US for US customers, including deposits and withdrawals via bank transfer (ACH), according to a Feb. 19 announcement from Binance. In June 2023, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Binance, accusing the firm of failing to register Binance.US as an exchange. Binance.US suspended US dollar deposits shortly after the lawsuit was filed.
- US Senate?confirms pro-crypto Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce Commentary: The U.S. Senate has confirmed Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly nominee Howard Lutnick as the 41st Secretary of Commerce. As Secretary of Commerce, Lutnick would work on creating jobs, promoting economic growth and encouraging innovation, according to the department's mission statement. Lutnick is also expected to work in support of Trump’s trade agenda, outlined by his push for steep import taxes on goods from U.S. trading partners. Lutnick has served as chairman and CEO of global financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, a company he has been part of since 1983. Following his confirmation, Lutnick announced his resignation from his positions at Cantor. Cantor has also provided custody services for Tether.
- FTX?begins initial fund distributions to customers as its bankruptcy recovery forges on Commentary: An initial batch of customers of bankrupt exchange FTX are beginning to receive their funds over the next few days, with others set to get their share in the coming months. Convenience class customers, those claiming up to $50,000 will begin seeing their funds in the next one to three business days, according to a statement released Tuesday by FTX. The next round of distributions will take place on April 11, FTX said.
- SEC?seeks public feedback on approving options trading for Grayscale, Bitwise Ethereum ETFs Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is asking the public to weigh in on whether the agency should approve options trading on a trio of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds. The SEC asked for those comments on whether to allow the Cboe Exchange, Inc. to list and trade options on the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF, the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF and the Bitwise Ethereum ETF, according to a regulatory filing posted on Tuesday.
- Strategy?announces $2 billion convertible note offering to fuel future bitcoin purchases Commentary: Hours after issuing a profitability warning, Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) said Tuesday it intends to offer $2 billion in convertible senior notes with 0% interest. Strategy intends to use the proceeds from this offering for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of bitcoin. The notes mature on March 1, 2030, unless repurchased, redeemed, or converted earlier. Strategy will settle conversions in cash, class A common stock, or both, according to the release. Strategy also plans to grant initial purchasers options to buy up to $300 million in additional notes within five business days of issuance.
- Tether co-founder?launches rival stablecoin that offers yield Commentary: Tether co-founder Reeve Collins is launching a decentralized stablecoin that will compete with the original dollar-pegged token he helped create, upping the ante in a corner of the cryptocurrency market that has seen intense competition. Collins is now chairing Pi Protocol, a self-proclaimed decentralized project that will launch on the Ethereum and Solana blockchains later this year. Pi will use smart contracts to allow parties to mint the USP stablecoin in exchange for the yield-bearing USI token. The stablecoin will reportedly be backed by bonds and other real-world assets. Although the stablecoin’s name implies that it will be pegged to the US dollar, there were no details about the fiat currency or currencies it represents.
- CalSTRS pension fund?reports holding $83 million in MSTR shares Commentary: The California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS) reported holding $83 million worth of Strategy’s MSTR common stocks. The fund saw its MSTR holdings nearly double in value during the fourth quarter of 2024. According to the fund’s 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, CalSTRS added 5,191 shares in the past quarter to own 258,785 MSTR shares as of Dec. 31, 2024. Compared to the number of shares purchased during Q4, the fund’s total value of MSTR shares saw a more significant rise, going from $42.7 million at the end of Q3 to $82.7 million at year-end, a 93.5% increase.
- Standard Chartered?plans to launch HKD-backed stablecoin with Animoca Brands and HKT Commentary: Standard Chartered's Hong Kong unit, web3 investor Animoca Brands and telecom company Hong Kong Telecommunications (HKT) have teamed up to form a joint venture to issue a stablecoin pegged to the Hong Kong dollar. The joint venture plans to apply for a license from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) under the city's upcoming stablecoin regulatory regime, aiming to be among the first regulated stablecoin issuers, according to an announcement Monday.
- Argentine lawyers?file complaint with US DOJ, FBI amid LIBRA fallout Commentary: An Argentine law firm filed a criminal complaint with the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) on Feb. 17, pointing to the protagonists behind the downfall of the LIBRA token. The complaint also asks that the role of Argentine President Javier Milei be investigated. On another legal front, Civic Coalition ARI filed a criminal complaint on Feb. 17 requesting that the Ministry of Justice investigate claims of bribery and fraud allegedly promoted by President Milei, adding that the “government cannot be judge and jury.”
- Whistleblower?sends $2M ETH to WikiLeaks, alleging ‘brain-computer weapons’ Commentary: A pseudonymous programmer calling themselves “Hu Lezhi” donated $2 million worth of Ether to WikiLeaks with an onchain message claiming the Chinese military is using nano computer chips to control citizens. Lezhi’s onchain message also accused two hedge fund executives at Kuande Investment (known as WizardQuant), Feng Xin and Xu Yuzhi, of using similar “brain-computer weapons” to control their employees.
- Argentinian President Javier Milei?charged with fraud over $LIBRA token scandal Commentary: Argentinian lawyers, alongside the former head of the country’s Central Bank, charged President Javier Milei with fraud over his involvement with the $LIBRA token project, which collapsed 95% from its peak. Hayden Davis, an advisor to the project, accused Milei of sparking the crash by withdrawing his support, though the token had already lost significant value by that time.
- Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund?bought $437 million of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF Commentary: Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund purchased $436.9 million of BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF during the final quarter of last year, according to a filing from Friday. The purchase came around the time BlackRock secured a commercial license to operate in Abu Dhabi last November. The city government also invested in bitcoin mining in 2023. That same year, Marathon Digital and Zero Two said they would develop a giant bitcoin mining complex being in Abu Dhabi.
- SEC Crypto Task Force?meets with Jito and Multicoin to discuss staking in crypto ETFs Commentary: Jito Labs and Multicoin Capital are one of the many organizations to have had meetings with the Crypto Task Force, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s division set up to rewrite crypto policy. The groups met about two weeks ago, shortly after the task force was set up, to discuss the ability to include staking as a feature in exchange-traded products. According to the meeting notes, Managing Partner Kyle Samani and general counsel Greg Xethalis, Jito Labs CEO Lucas Bruder and Chief Legal Officer Rebecca Rettig and SEC staffers didn’t just talk about staking and restaking in the abstract but actual models that could make it a reality in these products.
- BNB Chain?will prioritize memecoin transactions as gas fees surge 400% Commentary: BNB Chain (BSC) has collected nearly $15 million in gas fees from users over the past 7 days, a surge of 400% and more than double Ethereum’s sum, as memecoin speculation increases on the network. The network released its first optimization to deal with the increased traffic today, giving transactions interacting with time-sensitive contracts, like memecoin trades, a higher priority.
- February 28?- BTC CME February (BTCG25) Options Expiry
- March 19?- U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- March 28?- BTC CME March (BTCH25) Options Expiry
