GSG Weekly Recap (Feb 17, 2025)

GSG Weekly Recap (Feb 17, 2025)

Market Watch


Things to Watch This Week (Feb?17?- Feb 21)

  • Feb 20: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims?

Markets are waiting to see developments in the Russia/Ukraine negotiations, as well as more updates from Trump’s administration regarding tariffs and other measure they have been taking. ?

Random Musing This Week?(Feb 17?- Feb 21)

Weekly market update

Last week, the market focused on key economic indicators such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which showed unexpected rises, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the Trump administration expanded tariff targets, heightening market uncertainties. The Trump administration also highlighted tariff issues which were not immediately disruptive because they were not entirely new. The introduction of reciprocal tariffs, expected to begin after April 1st, is seen as an extension of existing policies rather than a new threat, which allowed the market to react without significant negativity.

This tariff expansion is anticipated to have a gradual impact, allowing time for markets and businesses to adjust. The cryptocurrency market remained relatively stable but showed overall weakness, reflecting concerns over inflation and trade policies. Market expectations measured by FedWatch indicate that the anticipation for a rate cut has slightly decreased from last week, with the probability of maintaining the current target rate at 96%. ? ?


Upcoming events include release of the PCE data (February 27) to gauge inflation trends, crucial for future Federal Reserve decisions. With persistent inflation and the expanding tariff measures, investors remain cautious as they navigate an unpredictable economic landscape. ?

Recap of Top Stories (Feb 10 – Feb 14)

Interesting

  • Ethereum Foundation?deploys $120M to DeFi apps Commentary: The Ethereum Foundation allocated $120 million of Ether to decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, responding to community concerns about the foundation’s reliance on ETH sell-offs for funding. On Feb. 13, the Ethereum Foundation’s multisignature address deposited 4,200 Ether into Compound, 10,000 ETH into Spark and 30,800 ETH into Aave. Aave founder and CEO Stani Kulechov said the 30,800 ETH (about $82.4 million) deployed into Aave Prime and Aave Core is the Ethereum Foundation’s “biggest allocation in DeFi.” Kulechov also said, “DeFi will win,” expressing optimism as the foundation added liquidity to Aave.?
  • US mining companies?feel supply squeeze from Bitmain shipment delays Commentary: US mining companies are experiencing delays in receiving shipments of application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) — the hardware used to mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies — from Chinese manufacturer Bitmain amid trade tensions between the two countries. The shipping delays are due to increased scrutiny of Chinese-manufactured ASICs and high-performance computing hardware by the United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
  • NFT market OpenSea?teases token launch Commentary: Non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace OpenSea is preparing to launch a project token, SEA, according to a Feb. 13 announcement from the OpenSea Foundation. The foundation did not specify the timing of the token launch but said SEA would be available to users in countries including the US. It added that “historical OpenSea usage, not just recent activity, will be an important ingredient” in token allocations. In 2024, OpenSea faced lawsuits and regulatory inquiries alleging the NFTs traded on the platform qualified as unregistered securities. Fungible tokens — like SEA — will face even greater scrutiny. The probe remains unresolved, but Trump’s regulatory picks plan to scale back enforcement against crypto.
  • Coinbase's?full-year revenue reaches $6.1 billion, more than double from 2023 Commentary: U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase reported fourth-quarter and full-year earnings Thursday afternoon, beating expectations and showing huge growth. The company reported net income of $579 million. Revenue of $2.3 billion beat estimates by about $430 million and was up from $1.13 billion compared to the third quarter. Fourth-quarter transaction revenue rose 172% quarter over quarter to $1.6 billion, up significantly from the prior-year quarter's $529 million. Coinbase reported $226 million in stablecoin revenue, a modest decrease from the prior quarter's $247 million.
  • New York senator?introduces bill to create a crypto task force Commentary: A New York senator has proposed legislation for a crypto task force to investigate the current state of cryptocurrencies and other forms of digital currency in the city.? The New York State Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Study Act, introduced by state Senator James Sanders Jr on Feb. 12, would establish a task force of 17 people to investigate “the effects of the widespread use of cryptocurrencies and other forms of digital currencies and their ancillary systems.”
  • Trump?picks former Bitfury exec Jonathan Gould to lead the OCC, signaling ongoing shift to crypto-friendly regulators Commentary: Jonathan Gould was previously chief legal officer at Bitfury and before that was senior deputy comptroller and chief counsel at the OCC(Office of the Comptroller of the Currency). Trump’s reported move to tap Gould to lead the OCC will help the agency to work with lawmkers to move crypto bills, said the Blockchain Association’s Ron Hammond.
  • New York senator?introduces bill to create a crypto task force Commentary: A New York senator has proposed legislation for a crypto task force to investigate the current state of cryptocurrencies and other forms of digital currency in the city. The New York State Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Study Act, introduced by state Senator James Sanders Jr on Feb. 12, would establish a task force of 17 people to investigate “the effects of the widespread use of cryptocurrencies and other forms of digital currencies and their ancillary systems.”
  • Trump?plans to nominate a16z’s Brian Quintenz to chair CFTC Commentary: U.S. President Donald Trump intends to nominate Brian Quintenz, head of global policy at a16z crypto, to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Bloomberg reported today. Quintenz, a former commissioner of the CFTC during Trump’s first administration, emerged as a top contender to lead the agency late last year. Trump now plans to select Quintenz to chair the CFTC, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing a document sent by the White House to Capitol Hill.
  • Franklin Templeton?registers Solana Trust in Delaware Commentary: Asset manager Franklin Templeton has registered a trust in Delaware tied to a proposed spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) — indicating that it may soon look to launch the fund in the US. To join the race for a Solana ETF alongside Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital, Franklin will need to file what’s known as a Form 19b-4 and a Form S-1 for the proposed ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • BitGo?plans to go public as early as Q2 2025 Commentary: Major U.S.-based crypto custodian BitGo plans to go public via an initial public offering as early as Q2 2025, according to Bloomberg news. BitGo was last valued at $1.75 billion during a $100 million Series C funding round in August 2023 that would fund acquisitions. That round was significant given in that it was only a minor “downround” during a time when venture funding had dried up following a catastrophic credit contagion effect during the previous year’s bear market.
  • Uniswap?debuts Unichain mainnet, joins crowded ETH L2 ecosystem Commentary: Uniswap Labs has announced the mainnet launch of Unichain, its Ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain. The debut marks Uniswap's expansion into the L2 market. Unichain will have one-second block times, swap liquidity, and the ability to earn interest or borrow against collateral. The debut of Unichain’s mainnet is said to come after millions of test transactions and smart contracts on the testnet, which debuted on Oct. 10. The new chain could generate nearly $500 million annually for Uniswap Labs and UNI tokenholders by redirecting fees that would have gone to Ethereum validators.
  • SEC and Binance?seek 60-day pause in crypto case Commentary: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Binance filed a joint motion to pause their legal case for 60 days, marking the first move toward halting major cryptocurrency litigation since Mark Uyeda took over as acting SEC chair. The motion, filed on Feb. 10, asked to pause the case against the exchange for 60 days, citing the establishment of the SEC’s Crypto Task Force. “The work of this task force may impact and facilitate the potential resolution of this case,” the SEC and Binance wrote in the motion.
  • Grayscale?files for Cardano ETF, its first standalone ADA product Commentary: Crypto investment firm Grayscale on Monday filed to list a Cardano (ADA) exchange traded fund on the New York Stock Exchange. Grayscale, which last year broke through U.S. regulators' blockade against the bitcoin ETF, has never previously offered a standalone ADA investment vehicle despite making past moves to do so. Investor demand has always been high for the flagship asset of the Cardano blockchain. ADA ranks among the largest crypto assets by market cap, weighing in at $25 billion at press time. The token spiked 1.5% to 71 cents following the Grayscale news.
  • Hacker pleads guilty to SEC social media breach used for?fake spot Bitcoin ETF post Commentary: Eric Council Jr., through his lawyer, pleaded guilty to prosecutors’ charge of conspiracy to commit aggravated identity theft and access device fraud, according to a filing posted on Sunday. Prosecutors said Council worked with others to take control of the SEC’s X account when they posted saying that spot bitcoin ETFs had been approved.
  • Binance co-founder?clarifies token listing process amid TST controversy Commentary: Binance’s co-founder has addressed concerns over the exchange’s token listing criteria following the rapid rise and fall of the Test (TST) token, which briefly reached a $500-million market capitalization. His clarifications come shortly after Changpeng Zhao, co-founder and former CEO of Binance, said that “the Binance listing process is a bit broken” due to the arbitrage opportunities used by decentralized exchange (DEX) traders that led to poor performance shortly after the listing.
  • Rep. Waters calls for support on bipartisan?stablecoin legislation Commentary: California Representative Maxine Waters has called on lawmakers in the US House of Representatives to support a bill drafted in the previous session of Congress governing payment stablecoins. According to the California lawmaker, the bill represented “three years’ worth of work to craft bipartisan stablecoins legislation.” It included closing loopholes for issuers to circumvent US laws by operating abroad and barring certain convicted fraudsters from working at a senior level at stablecoin firms.
  • SEC?delays decision on BlackRock's Ethereum ETF options trading until April 9 Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission delayed a decision on Friday on whether to approve BlackRock's proposal to list and trade options on its spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund. The SEC said it will decide on April 9, 2025, whether to approve or disapprove allowing options trading on the world's largest asset manager's iShares Ethereum Trust, according to the filing. "The Commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to issue an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein," the agency said.
  • Central African Republic?launches memecoin as experiment, according to president's X account Commentary: The official X account of the President of the Central African Republic announced that the country has launched a memecoin as part of an experiment to see whether it can benefit national development. The CAR memecoin is described as “the official meme of the Central African Republic” on Solana launchpad pump.fun, where it is being traded for around $0.45. A follow-up social media post included a video announcement of the memecoin launch apparently featuring President Touadéra himself.
  • Austin University?to launch $5M Bitcoin fund with 5-year HODL strategy Commentary: The University of Austin is launching a first-of-its-kind Bitcoin investment fund, showcasing the growing Bitcoin adoption among United States institutions. The University of Austin will raise a Bitcoin fund worth over $5 million, as part of the institution’s $200 million endowment fund. The news of the fund comes over three months after a regulatory filing revealed that Emory University accumulated over $15 million worth of Bitcoin through Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
  • Florida?bitcoin investment bill filed by state senator Commentary: Florida Republican Senator Joe Gruters filed a bill on Friday proposing that the be allowed to state invest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In the bill, the senator suggests Florida's chief financial officer be allowed to use public funds to "make investments in bitcoin and other digital assets for a certain purpose," according to the filing.?

Upcoming Market Events

  • February 18?- FTX Preliminary Distribution Repayments Begin
  • February 28?- BTC CME February (BTCG25) Options Expiry
  • March 19?- U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
  • March 28?- BTC CME March (BTCH25) Options Expiry

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