- Feb 12-13: U.S. CPI / Initial Jobless Claims?
All eyes are still on D. Trump and his administration’s major decisions, with tariffs in particular playing a major role in how markets react. Data-wise the focus will be on inflation prints and unemployment numbers from the US.?
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update
The key to keep watch out for this week in terms of Bitcoin technicals is whether BTC supports will hold in the near-term.
As can be seen below, we've been testing 2 key supports constantly since BTC began experiencing weakness after breaking to new all-time highs at the end of January. First is the red trendline that once previously served as resistance in Dec-Jan which has flipped to a descending support trendline except for the drastic drop last Monday, which saw BTC wick briefly through before a short-term reversal that unfortunately didn't last very long.
The second support is the 100-day moving average (blue line) that has yet to be broken in this current uptrend. However, we've now seen 5 consecutive doji candles that have been dancing ever so slightly on this support, which signals indecision. Moreover, the longer we stay in this precarious position, the more likely that bids will be pulled from this support level and we could see prices drop further should this support not hold.?
As mentioned last week, we've outlined that a long-term pivot level at $90-92.5k will hopefully continue to stand as a major support level, so even if these two supports are not able to hold moving forward, we might only dip just slightly beyond. But we're also wary of the fact that this major support level will have been tested for the 8th time if that were to be the case, and the more times that we retest support levels means that a breakdown of it could happen at any time, so we'll want to see BTC start trending away from this vicinity in the near-term to regain some bullish momentum going forward.?
One event to keep an eye out for to end this month will be the FTX repayments beginning sometime next week, which some believe could be reinvested into cryptocurrency, so could potentially bring some much-needed demand into the markets at a time when its most needed. ?
- Trump-backed World Liberty Financial?aiming to form 'strategic' token reserve Commentary: World Liberty Financial co-founder Chase Herro said on Thursday that the platform plans on creating a “strategic reserve” with the tokens it buys, according to a report from Bloomberg. President Donald Trump and his family famously back the DeFi project. The president's son Donald Trump Jr. appeared on stage alongside Herro at the Ondo Summit in New York on Thursday.
- Cboe BZX Exchange?files 19b-4 to list and trade spot XRP ETFs for several issuers Commentary: Cboe BZX Exchange filed 19b-4s on behalf of Bitwise, 21Shares and Canary Capital to list and trade a spot exchange-traded product that tracks XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. A 19b-4 filing is the second part of a two-step process for proposing a crypto ETF to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Once acknowledged by the SEC, the filing will be published in the Federal Register, initiating the agency's approval process.
- Crypto exchange Gemini?considers a 2025 IPO Commentary: Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss's crypto exchange Gemini is considering an initial public offering, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter. The IPO could happen sometime this year, but the firm hasn't reached a definitive conclusion. In January, Gemini onboarded three senior executives to oversee the firm's European expansion in 2025. In November 2024, the exchange obtained a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license in France allowing it to provide crypto services across the European Union, The Block previously reported.
- Franklin Templeton?seeks SEC approval for Crypto Index ETF Commentary: Asset manager Franklin Templeton has filed for a multi-asset crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the United States securities regulator, adding to the growing list of crypto ETF applications since the inauguration of US President US Donald Trump. If approved, the Franklin Crypto Index ETF would offer exposure to the spot prices of Bitcoin and Ether in a single fund on the Cboe BZX Exchange, weighted by their respective market capitalizations, according to a Feb. 6 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- BlackRock?plans bitcoin exchange-traded product for European market Commentary: Following the runaway success of its U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock is now preparing an exchange-traded product (ETP) linked to the cryptocurrency for Europe, according to Bloomberg. "The European market for cryptocurrency ETPs is hotly contested, with more than 160 products available tracking the price of bitcoin, ether and other tokens," the report said. "However, its $17.3 billion size pales in comparison to that of the U.S."
- MicroStrategy?rebrands as 'Strategy' in move to emphasize its bitcoin position Commentary: MicroStrategy, the business intelligence firm and the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, announced Wednesday a rebrand to emphasize its crypto-centric side of the business. The company will now be doing business as Strategy. "This brand simplification is a natural evolution of the company, reflecting its focus and broad appeal," the company said in a press release.
- FDIC?releases 790 pages of crypto-related letters in regulatory pivot Commentary: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the regulatory body overseeing banks in the United States, has released 790 pages of additional correspondence related to firms offering crypto services to clients. “Looking forward, we are actively reevaluating our supervisory approach to crypto-related activities,” FDIC Acting Chairman Travis Hill wrote, marking a seismic shift in the government agency’s stance toward the crypto industry.
- Trump's CFTC head?slams prediction markets resistance under predecessor Commentary: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission was so far along in its fight against prediction markets that reversing its rules, orders, and court arguments will take a lot of effort, said Acting Chairman Caroline Pham. The CFTC will soon schedule a roundtable meeting of experts to get the ball rolling on rebooting the agency's position on prediction markets. Setting up the roundtable is a "necessary first step in order to establish a holistic regulatory framework that will both foster thriving prediction markets and protect retail customers from binary options fraud such as deceptive and abusive marketing and sales practices," Pham said.
- FTX’s Bahamas arm?to repay first creditor group starting on Feb. 18 Commentary: FTX Digital Markets, the Bahamian arm of FTX, will begin repaying creditors who lost access to their funds when the cryptocurrency exchange collapsed in November 2022. FTX Digital Markets will begin distributing funds based on claims from “convenience class” creditors starting on Feb. 18. The distribution notice provided by Kavuri showed that FTX users claiming under $50,000 could expect “100% of their adjudicated claim value” as well as 9% interest per annum since November 2022. The distribution notice was based on a creditor who applied for recovery through the crypto firm BitGo. It’s unclear if Kraken, which will also assist in distributing FTX funds to claim holders, would have the same schedule. Assuming all FTX users file complete claims, the exchange could be expected to pay more than $16 billion.
- Trump’s ‘crypto czar’?floats Bitcoin reserve as White House pushes sovereign wealth fund Commentary: Speaking at a joint press conference in Washington on Tuesday alongside key congressional committee leaders, David Sacks, President Donald Trump’s newly appointed "crypto czar," outlined the new administration's broad pro-crypto agenda. However, he quickly added that the sovereign wealth fund was a different concept and that Trump's nominee for Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, would be the point person on it.?
- Sen. Hagerty to introduce?stablecoin legislation Commentary: The bill would create a “safe and pro-growth regulatory framework that will unleash innovation and advance the President’s mission to make America the world capital of crypto,” Sen. Hagerty said in a statement obtained by Bloomberg. The bill will be called the "Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins". It will include requirements for backing stablecoin payments with Treasury bills, U.S. dollars, and Federal Reserve notes.
- US SEC?scales down crypto enforcement unit while task force gears up Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is taking steps to scale down its special unit for crypto enforcement actions, The New York Times reported, citing five sources familiar with the matter. The agency is currently reducing the size of the unit which consists of over 50 lawyers and other staff members. While the crypto enforcement action unit is reportedly being downsized, the SEC’s newly established crypto task force is expected to bring the anticipated clarity to crypto regulations. Earlier today, the SEC reportedly opened a new website for the crypto task force, inviting input from the industry and the public.
- Trump-backed World Liberty Financial?denies token sales Commentary: World Liberty Financial claims it hasn’t sold any of its WLFI tokens amid rumors that the decentralized finance (DeFi) project was pursuing token swaps with various blockchain projects whose tokens it acquired in recent months. According to a Feb. 3 social media post, World Liberty said it routinely shuffles its crypto holdings as part of its treasury management strategy. World Liberty Financial issued the statement less than two hours after Blockworks reported that the company was pursuing token swaps with various crypto projects. Citing anonymous sources, the report claims that World Liberty was looking to sell at least $10 million worth of yet-to-be-launched WLFI tokens in exchange for buying the same amount of that project’s native cryptocurrency. The sale would come with a 10% fee, the report said.
- Crypto market liquidations?likely reached $10B - Bybit CEO Commentary: The recent crypto market correction may have liquidated up to $10 billion worth of capital, eclipsing previous estimates, according to Bybit’s CEO. More than $2.24 billion was liquidated from the crypto markets in 24 hours on Feb. 3, according to CoinGlass data. Bybit co-founder and CEO Ben Zhou, however, said the real figure may be five times larger. The differences in the crypto liquidation figures were likely caused by limitations in the application programming interfaces (API) of the cryptocurrency exchanges. This is what caused platforms like CoinGlass to report Bybit’s liquidations at $333 million instead of the actual $2.1 billion figure.
- Coinbase?wins UK FCA approval as registered crypto service provider Commentary: Coinbase won approval from the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) as a registered virtual asset service provider (VASP). The cryptocurrency exchange said in a Feb. 3 news release shared with Cointelegraph that the approval cemented its status as the country’s largest registered crypto exchange. The FCA’s greenlight grants the Nasdaq-listed exchange the ability to serve both retail and institutional customers and offer crypto-to-fiat services in one of its most important international markets. The UK is now Coinbase’s largest market outside the US, where it is headquartered.
- TON Foundation?veteran launches $100 million VC fund TVM Ventures Commentary: Steve Yun, former president and current board member of TON Foundation, has launched TVM Ventures, a new venture capital firm with an inaugural $100 million fund. TVM Ventures takes its name from the TON Virtual Machine and it focuses on funding startups within the TON ecosystem, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi) and payment finance (PayFi) verticals.
- Trump’s tariffs?shake markets: Dow futures slide, crypto liquidations top $2B Commentary: Global markets face a turbulent week after U.S. President Donald Trump's Friday tariff announcement sent U.S. stock futures plummeting and triggered massive crypto liquidations, signaling deepening concerns about prolonged higher interest rates. The market reaction reflects concerns that tariffs could force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher rates throughout 2025. Inflationary pressure from import costs and supply chain disruptions reduces the likelihood of rate cuts this year.
- Uniswap V4?goes live, with swaps rolling out across the next few days Commentary:? Uniswap Labs officially released version 4 of the Uniswap protocol, turning the protocol into a developer platform. Uniswap v4 is operational on multiple blockchain networks including Ethereum, Arbitrum, OP Mainnet and Base. Uniswap v4 changes the protocol into a developer platform, thanks to the introduction of "hooks." These are contracts that allow developers to customize interactions within pools, swaps, fees, and liquidity provider (LP) positions. Hooks open the door to new features, potentially driving deeper liquidity and enabling more swaps.
- Swiss bank UBS?tests blockchain for digital gold investments on ZKsync Commentary: Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS, is experimenting with blockchain technology to modernize digital gold investments for retail investors. The Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), with over $5.7 trillion in assets under management, has completed a proof-of-concept for its fractional gold investment product, UBS Key4 Gold, on the Ethereum layer-2 (L2) network ZKsync Validium. The blockchain-based proof-of-concept reflects UBS’ “continued efforts to explore how blockchain can enhance its financial offerings, according to Alex Gluchowski, ZKsync’s inventor.
- Indian government?considering cryptocurrency policy shift Commentary: India's government is currently mulling a shift on its regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies, which could shift the rate of adoption in the country, which has ranked highly on crypto adoption metrics in recent years. News of a potential policy shift came amid a new tax of up to 70% on previously undisclosed crypto gains as part of India's Income Tax Act. The government's changing stance reflects the high-level game theory posited by pro-crypto analysts and Bitcoin maximalists that nation-state adoption by one or two countries would trigger a race among global powers to accumulate digital currencies.
- February 18?- FTX Preliminary Distribution Repayments Begin
- February 28?- BTC CME February (BTCG25) Options Expiry
- March 19?- U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- March 28?- BTC CME March (BTCH25) Options Expiry
