- May 1: FOMC Rate Decision
This week, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision, which is 100% expected to be a hold, according to FedWatch. However, reports are now pointing to the possibility of additional risk due to hawkish guidance, given last week's CPI and GDP data readings both came in with less than stellar results. It could lead to volatile market sessions in traditional markets, so crypto markets being in a currently vulnerable state could suffer.???
Fidelity's Bitcoin Outlook
This past week, Fidelity Digital Assets, which manages a Bitcoin spot ETF, published a report providing insights into the current and future state of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Here are the highlights:
Revised Medium-Term Outlook for Bitcoin
??? ?Fidelity has adjusted its medium-term outlook on Bitcoin from "positive" to "neutral". This revision comes as the Bitcoin Yardstick, similar to a Price-to-Earnings ratio, indicates that Bitcoin did not fall into the "cheap" category at any point in Q1 2024, suggesting it is now trading at "fair value."?
??? ?Although it is not as "cheap" as it was at the start of 2023, it is also not in the "yellow" (overvalued) zone, presenting potential "buy the dip" opportunities for medium-term investment strategies.
On-Chain Metrics and Selling Pressure
??? ?Fidelity's revision is backed by on-chain metrics such as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio and the MVRV Z-Score. These metrics suggest that Bitcoin is correctly valued at current levels. Additionally, with 99% of Bitcoin addresses showing a profit, there's potential for an increase in selling pressure to materialize, which could lead to price stabilization or minor corrections.?
Short-Term Optimism Amidst Uncertainties
??? ?Despite the neutral outlook in the medium term, Fidelity maintains a positive view for Bitcoin in the short term, bolstered by its performance above crucial moving averages. The report highlights ongoing retail accumulation and a notable increase in addresses holding substantial Bitcoin amounts, indicating sustained retail interest.
Though Bitcoin has risen from the extreme lows previously seen, the current market conditions present a stable foundation for investment, especially since it is not considered overvalued by key metrics. Potential investors might find it advantageous to consider 'buying the dip' during smaller market corrections.
- Consensys?sues SEC, challenging its approach to Ethereum and seeking court intervention Commentary: The blockchain and web3 development company behind the well-known MetaMask Wallet filed a lawsuit against the agency on Thursday in a Texas court. The firm also noted in the complaint that SEC staff sent Consensys a Wells notice earlier this month, meaning a formal notice that the agency plans to bring an enforcement action against them. Consensys said it received a letter from the SEC's enforcement arm in April 2022 that said its staff was investigating MetaMask. Later, in September 2022, Consensys said it received another letter from the SEC about bringing an enforcement action against the company for violating its laws, partly through MetaMask Staking products.
- Stripe?bringing back crypto payments, this time with a stablecoin Commentary: Payment service Stripe is bringing back crypto in the form of stablecoin payments, co-founder and president John Collison has announced. The new service will be available this summer. Since Stripe discontinued its Bitcoin payment option in 2018, transaction times have increased, fees have decreased and stablecoins are performing stably.
- Franklin Templeton?enables peer-to-peer transfers for its on-chain US Government Money Fund Commentary: Asset management firm Franklin Templeton has enabled the peer-to-peer transfers of tokenized shares in its on-chain U.S. Government Money Fund. With each share represented by the BENJI token on the Polygon and Stellar blockchains, Franklin Templeton leads the tokenized U.S. Treasuries niche. Its 32% market share represents $384 million in assets, according to data compiled by asset management firm 21.co, the parent company of bitcoin exchange-traded fund provider 21Shares.
- Hong Kong's?'in-kind' spot bitcoin and ether ETFs to start trading on April 30 Commentary: Hong Kong has officially cleared the way for six crypto-based spot ETFs to begin trading on April 30, according to Bloomberg analysts. Initially, three spot bitcoin and three spot ether exchange-traded funds will become available, allowing investors to wager on the price of the two dominant cryptocurrencies without having to buy them directly. Although Hong Kong's spot crypto ETFs are expected to attract much less capital when compared to those in the U.S. offered by financial heavyweights like BlackRock and Fidelity, the approval is a positive development.
- Renzo's?ezETH depegs 18.3% following REZ tokenomics announcement on Binance Commentary: Renzo's Ethereum-pegged asset depegged significantly within the past 24 hours. ezETH dipped 18.3% to about $2,642 within a matter of minutes, with some crypto data trackers depicting ezETH fall to around $700. The token largely recovered since the depeg, but still dropped 5.6% within the past 24 hours to trade hands at $3,077 at 12:40 p.m. ET. The depeg was likely due to users wanting to exit ezETH after learning more about the REZ token’s confusing distribution plan.
- Co-founders of?Samourai Wallet?arrested and charged with money laundering Commentary: Co-founders of the crypto mixing service Samourai Wallet were arrested and prosecutors say they were involved in laundering $100 million from the Silk Road and other illicit markets. Prosecutors say Samourai is an unlicensed money-transmitting business and was involved in over $2 billion in unlawful transactions.
- SEC suggests a $5.3 billion fine for?Do Kwon, Terraform Labs Commentary: Federal regulators request Terraform Labs and its co-founder Do Kwon be fined $5.3 billion for defrauding investors, shortly after the two parties were found liable for a multi-billion-dollar fraud. The SEC called its proposed fines “conservative” but “reasonable,” particularly given the vast wealth Kwon reaped from Terraform's ill-fated stablecoin, according to the filing.
- SEC?asks for comments on BlackRock's amended spot Ethereum ETF proposal Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is asking for public comments on changes made to BlackRock's proposed spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund. In the amended filing, the exchange discussed the ETF's creation and redemption process, and said, "Baskets are only issued or redeemed in exchange for an amount of cash determined by the Trustee on each day that Nasdaq is open for regular trading." This differs from the original filing from November, which says the process would involve ether.
- Binance?sued in Canada for securities law violations Commentary: Cryptocurrency exchange Binance has been slapped with a new class-action lawsuit in Canada, with plaintiffs alleging that the firm has violated local securities laws. Ontario’s Superior Court of Justice published a certification motion against Binance alleging that it sold crypto derivative products to retail investors without registration. The lawsuit seeks damages and rescission of unlawful derivatives trades. The plaintiffs argued that tens of thousands of Canadian users of the Binance website invested in its cryptocurrency derivatives products.
- Ripple?files opposition to SEC's proposed $2 billion in fines, calling it 'evidence of its ongoing intimidation' Commentary: Ripple Labs filed its rebuttal to the SEC's push to have the firm pay close to $2 billion in penalties, in a court document filed late on Monday. This comes after the SEC said last month that Ripple should pay close to $2 billion in fines for selling XRP to institutional investors, but Ripple said that figure should be closer to $10 million in its opposition motion. Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty said the SEC’s request was evidence of “its ongoing intimidation” against crypto. "We remain confident that the Judge will approach this final remedies phase fairly."
- Ledger Live?to offer crypto swap and instant-buy services through MoonPay Commentary: Ledger Live will offer new crypto instant-buy and swap services through MoonPay, as the latter invests in the hard wallet company. As part of the collaboration, Ledger Academy will launch new self-paced crypto trading tutorials and other learning resources for its users, including content focused on MoonPay's services.
- SEC?lawyers resign after ‘gross abuse’ of power in crypto case Commentary: Two lawyers for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have reportedly resigned after a district court sanctioned the agency for “gross abuse” of power and acting in “bad faith” in a crypto case. Michael Welsh and Joseph Watkins, lead attorneys in the case against crypto platform DEBT Box, resigned earlier this month. The lawyers were warned they would be terminated if they stayed.
- Hong Kong investment firm?Victory Securities?reveals Bitcoin and Ether ETF fees Commentary: Victory Securities has reportedly disclosed its proposed fees to investors for Bitcoin?following the recent approval of cryptocurrency ETF products within the region. If approved by the SFC, Victory Securities' customers will face proposed fees for Ethereum and Bitcoin ETF shares in the primary market, set at 0.5% to 1% of the total transaction, with a minimum fee of $850. For investors interested in buying and selling existing ETF shares on the secondary market, the fees will be 0.15% for online transactions and 0.25% for telephone transactions. The fees are comparable to the rates set out by United States asset managers offering spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Thailand?to block access to 'Unauthorized' Crypto Platforms Commentary: Authorities in Thailand have decided to block “unauthorized” crypto platforms to increase the efficiency of law enforcement in solving the problem of online crime. After a meeting of the Technology Crime Prevention and Suppression Committee, Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission was ordered to submit information on unauthorized digital asset service providers to the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society to block access to the platforms. The SEC has considered the impact on users, and will give them time to manage their accounts before being unable to use the service.
- May 1?-?U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- May 15?-?BTC ETF Investors 13-F SEC filing disclosure
- May 15?- U.S. Consumer Price Index for April
- May 23?-?VanEck Ethereum?ETF Filing SEC Next Decision Date
- May 24?-?21Shares & ARK Ethereum?ETF Filing SEC Next Decision Date
- May 30?-?Hashdex Ethereum?ETF Filing SEC Next Decision Date
