Gruenwald on Yahoo! | US Fiscal Initiatives | EM Monthly: Cuts Coming | China Strategic Minerals | Upcoming Events: APPEC | My Vacation Cycling Recap

Welcome to our post-vacation edition of Essential Economics! This week we lead with my appearance as a guest host on Yahoo! Finance, where I discussed Fed rate policy and Chinese growth prospects. US Chief Economist Satyam Panday weighs in on fiscal policy measures implemented during the pandemic and their ongoing, positive impact on growth. Our Emerging Markets team, led by Elijah Oliveros-Rosen on the macro side and Jose Perez-Gorozpe on the credit side, released their latest monthly report which focuses on the scope for rate cuts now that inflation has peaked. Corporate Ratings Country Lead Charles Chang and a cross-divisional team write that China's global reach is growing for minerals critical to a wide range of products that will shape the future. I’m on the road next week in Singapore and tee up my appearance at APPEC, Asia’s most prestigious oil and energy industry conference?sponsored by our sister division S&P Global Commodity Insights.? Finally, as evidence of my restful vacation, I share my cycling stats for August, where I reached my distance goal of 1,000 kilometers!

Gruenwald on Yahoo! Finance

I dropped by the Yahoo! Finance studios on Monday for an appearance as guest host, joining anchors Brad Smith and Rachelle Akuffo. We discussed Fed rate policy (looking like higher for longer) and Chinese growth prospects for 2023 (looking weaker than we initially expected). ?

To watch the interview, click here.

US Fiscal Measures Paying Growth Dividends

Satyam argues that Federal legislation signed in 2021 and 2022 is having a measurable, positive impact on U.S. GDP growth. Private-sector expansion of manufacturing capacity specifically designed to produce semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries, and other electronics in the U.S. has far exceeded expectations.

Public-sector spending on infrastructure is also adding to growth, and we expect this trend to continue in the coming years.

To read the article, click here.

EM Monthly: Rate Cuts Coming

In their latest monthly report, our emerging markets team writes that several countries in LATAM have begun to cut policy rates and that Central and Eastern European EMs could begin cutting later this year as exchange rate and inflation pressures have become more supportive of monetary easing.

EM spreads are narrowing, and our data show a concentration of debt maturities in 2025-27.

To read the full article, click here.

China’s Reach in Critical Minerals

Charles and the research lab team argue that China’s reach is quietly growing for minerals critical to a wide range of products that will shape the future. Facing more restrictive foreign investment policies in developed markets, Chinese firms are pursuing such key minerals as lithium and cobalt in other locations.

We believe that China will continue to build its influence over these minerals and the industries that rely on them as it works with governments keen on foreign investments across the developing world.

?To read the full report, click here.

Coming Up: APPEC Singapore

I’m thrilled to be in Singapore next week to appear at APPEC 2023. The conference serves as a focal point for the exchange of ideas in the regional and global markets across oil and gas, upstream, downstream, chemicals, and shipping. It will be nice to return to Singapore (my former home base!) to collaborate with my APAC Ratings colleagues, catch up with local media contacts, and spend time with some friends and stakeholders.

To access the APPEC conference landing page, click here.

My Vacation Cycling Recap

While it wasn’t all play and no work, I did manage to reach my goal of 1,000 kilometers on the bike for the month of August.