Gruenwald at Asia Society | Panday on CNBC | EM Policy Rate Update | Tariffs: Sectoral Deep Dive | Private Credit and Systemic Risks

Welcome to the latest edition of Essential Economics! We kick off this week with my upcoming conversation at the Asia Society in New York. U.S. Chief Economist, Satyam Panday appeared on a CNBC Squawk Box podcast to discuss our latest views on U.S. macro including Fed monetary policy. Emerging Markets Chief Economist, Elijah Oliveros-Rosen shared revised policy rate forecasts for nine key emerging markets following a recent change in our policy rate forecast for the U.S. Our credit analysts across several sectors and economies took a deep dive into the potential effects of tariffs imposed by the US. Lastly, we issued a bundle of papers on systemic risk issues related to private debt.

Paul Gruenwald at the Asia Society

Looking forward to my fireside chat at the New York branch of the Asia Society on February 27. ?Topics will cover the potential impact of a second Trump administration on Asian markets, AI trends in the U.S. and Asia, and their implications for global economies and job markets.

Additionally, we will explore how globalization is shifting in both regions and the critical economic changes to watch.

To register for my Asia Society talk, click here.

Satyam Panday on CBNC Podcast

Satyam appeared on CNBC Squawk Box Europe this week. In a wide-ranging interview, he discussed our views on the impact of various tariff scenarios, shared our revised forecast for the U.S. Federal Funds Rate and weighed in on the latest U.S. data flows including inflation and the jobs market.?

To listen to Satyam’s CNBC podcast, click here.

Emerging Markets Forecast Update

Elijah shares the revised policy rate forecasts for nine key emerging markets (EMs) following a recent change in our policy rate forecast for the U.S. Across those nine EMs - Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkiye - the median shift in our rate forecasts (for the end of 2025 and the end of 2026) is a shift up by 50 basis points.

The interest rate differential between EMs and the U.S. is a key driver of capital flows.

To read the full report, click here.

Tariffs: Sector Deep Dives

Our analysts across various ?sectors and economies took a deep dive into the potential effects of US-imposed tariffs. These titles included:

·?????? Uncertain Tariff Policies Could Create Ratings Risks For North American Automakers And Suppliers

·?????? Canadian Oil Producers Likely Resilient To Potential Tariffs

·?????? Steel Briefs: U.S. Tariffs To Hit Korean Producers Harder Than Regional Peers

·?????? Tariffs Will Hurt U.S. Consumer And Retail And Restaurant Companies - To Varying Degrees, And Depending On The Subsector.

To read the article on North American automakers and suppliers, click here.

To read the article on Canadian oil producers, click here.

To read the article on Korean steel producers, click here.

To read the article on US retail and restaurant Companies, click here.

Private Debt: Systemic Risk Bundle

We issued a bundle of papers on systemic risk issues relatedto private debt. These cover: global banking regulation, non-bank financial institutions, the bank-nonbank nexus and shock amplification, US banks’ $1 trillion in loans to nonbanks and the challenges related to private credit’s characteristics.

To read the report on global banking regulation, click here.

To read the report on global nonbank financial institutions, click here.

To read the report on the global bank-nonbank nexus, click here.

To read the report on U.S. banks' loans to nonbanks, click here.

To read the report private credit’s characteristics, click here.

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As always, you can find the latest research from the S&P Global Ratings Economics team here.