The Growing Role of Artificial Intelligence in Government and Democratic Elections: A 2024 Analysis

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Abstract?

The rapid integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in government decision-making and democratic election processes is reshaping political and administrative landscapes worldwide. As AI technologies become more sophisticated, they offer transformative potential in areas like policy administration, resource allocation, and electoral strategies. However, their deployment brings challenges, particularly in democracies where concerns about transparency, fairness, and accountability are central to public trust. This essay explores the evolving role of AI in government functions such as welfare distribution, housing, and security and examines its impact on the democratic electoral process in 2024, including how major U.S. political parties, the GOP and DNC, have utilised AI. Emerging governance standards like the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act, UNESCO’s AI Ethics Recommendations, and the OECD’s AI Principles offer frameworks to mitigate ethical concerns, aiming to balance innovation with democratic integrity. Through case studies from diverse geopolitical contexts, this essay evaluates both the benefits and risks associated with AI’s influence on public governance and democratic practices.

The author has lived and worked in the USA and works closely with people on The Hill in Washington DC today. This essay was inspired by the BBC 4 Podcast Series The Coming Storm, his interest in AI forged through his early IBM training and the upcoming US elections.

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Introduction

Artificial Intelligence has transitioned from experimental technologies to essential tools in government and political strategy. By 2024, governments and political campaigns (literally half the world’s democracies had/will have an election this year) worldwide are leveraging AI not only to optimise administrative functions but also to craft campaign strategies with unprecedented precision. In democratic elections, AI’s role has grown beyond voter data analytics; it now enables targeted messaging, real-time sentiment analysis, and advanced disinformation detection, transforming how candidates and voters interact. In the United States’ 2024 election cycle, both the Republican (GOP) and Democratic (DNC) parties have implemented AI tools to analyse voter sentiment, create targeted ads, and manage digital misinformation. While AI presents opportunities for efficiency and responsiveness, its adoption raises questions about transparency, bias, and ethical governance, especially within democratic societies. Recognising these challenges, emerging governance standards like the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act, the OECD’s AI Principles, and UNESCO’s AI Ethics Recommendations are establishing frameworks to ensure responsible AI use. This paper critically examines the implications of AI’s integration in governance and elections, considering its effects on public trust and democratic integrity.

AI in Government Decision-Making: Transformations in Policy and Public Services

AI’s adoption in government functions has reshaped core aspects of public administration, particularly in welfare distribution, housing policy, and security. This section delves into case studies where AI has both streamlined and challenged these functions, integrating relevant governance standards to illustrate the frameworks guiding responsible AI use.

Welfare and Employment Benefits

?In welfare administration, AI has been deployed to improve efficiency in eligibility assessment and fraud prevention. For example, the United Kingdom’s Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) uses AI algorithms to cross-check welfare claims with government databases, reducing delays and helping prevent fraud. However, the algorithmic approach has also exposed systemic biases. Studies reveal that AI systems can disproportionately flag specific demographics, raising concerns about fairness and transparency. To address such issues, the European Union’s Artificial Intelligence Act mandates transparency and fairness for “high-risk” AI systems, including those used in welfare and employment. By requiring logic reasoning and regular audits for these algorithms, the Act aims to ensure that AI tools in social services do not reinforce biases or discriminate against vulnerable populations.

Housing Policy and Urban Planning

AI is also transforming housing policy and urban planning by enabling governments to anticipate housing demand, optimise resource allocation, and proactively address homelessness. In Canada, the city of Toronto has implemented an AI-driven predictive model that analyses demographic data, economic trends, and local housing markets to allocate affordable housing resources strategically. Similarly, Singapore’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) relies on AI analytics to track real-time data on housing availability, enabling dynamic policy adjustments. These efforts align with OECD’s AI Principles, which promote transparency, accountability, and human-centric design in AI applications. By following OECD guidelines, governments can work to ensure AI-driven housing policies that respect individuals’ rights and address housing inequities without compromising data privacy.

National and Public Security

In security, AI’s applications are arguably the most advanced and contentious. Governments employ AI for surveillance, predictive policing, and cybersecurity. China’s SkyNet system, for instance, leverages facial recognition and predictive analytics to track individuals in real time, facilitating law enforcement’s rapid response to potential threats. In democratic nations, balancing security with privacy rights is critical; thus, UNESCO’s AI Ethics Recommendations have been adopted by some countries to guide the ethical use of AI in public safety. UNESCO’s standards emphasise “proportionality and necessity” in surveillance technologies, mandating that governments use AI only to the extent required to achieve lawful and justified objectives. Israel, for example, has adapted aspects of these principles in its security policies, fostering a balance between the effectiveness of AI-driven border monitoring and respect for civil liberties.

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AI in Democratic Elections: 2024 Trends and Emerging Governance Standards

AI’s role in democratic elections has become increasingly sophisticated, influencing campaign strategies, voter engagement, and misinformation management. In the 2024 election cycle, AI’s deployment has been transformative yet polarising, raising concerns about democratic integrity and public trust. Emerging global governance standards are beginning to address these challenges.

Campaign Strategies and Voter Targeting

AI’s ability to analyse large datasets and generate detailed voter profiles has made microtargeting a powerful tool in political campaigns. Both the GOP and the DNC have used AI-driven platforms to assess voter sentiment, preferences, and demographic nuances in the 2024 election. For instance, the DNC leveraged AI algorithms to craft hyper-personalised ads based on voters’ social media engagement and viewing habits, delivering messages tailored to resonate with specific voter values, such as environmental issues or healthcare. Similarly, the GOP used AI analytics to identify potential swing voters in key battleground states, tailoring digital and television ads to reinforce campaign messages on the economy and immigration.

These applications align with, and yet challenge, the European Union’s AI Act, which requires transparency and accountability for AI systems involved in data processing and targeted advertising, particularly for political campaigns. While microtargeting makes campaigns more relevant to voters, it raises concerns about privacy and democratic division. The Act’s transparency requirements reflect an emerging global consensus on the importance of ethical guidelines to ensure fair and responsible political engagement.

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Content Generation and Deepfake Concerns

AI’s ability to generate content has enabled political campaigns to automate messaging on a large scale. However, the rise of AI-generated deepfakes, synthetic media designed to imitate real people’s appearances or voices has introduced significant risks to democratic integrity. In 2024, both the GOP and DNC experienced challenges with deepfakes; GOP-aligned interest groups reported instances of AI-generated videos that portrayed candidates negatively, while the DNC leveraged detection tools to verify the authenticity of campaign material.

To address these concerns, the DNC deployed an AI-driven tool that flags potential deepfake content by analysing media patterns, partnering with platforms like Meta and Twitter to remove or label deceptive media quickly. Recognising the potential harm of deepfakes, UNESCO’s AI Ethics Recommendations advocate for transparent AI use in content generation, emphasizing that AI tools used in public communication must not intentionally deceive. This approach has influenced stringent guidelines on AI-generated content in political advertising within the EU, aiming to protect voters from misinformation that could distort democratic processes.

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Combatting Misinformation

AI is also pivotal in combatting misinformation, a major challenge in democratic elections worldwide. Fact checking organisations and social media platforms are using AI algorithms to detect and counter misinformation more effectively. For instance, in the U.S. 2024 election, the DNC and GOP both invested in real-time AI tools to monitor social media narratives, identifying and responding to viral misinformation promptly. The DNC used tools like ClaimBuster to scan and cross reference viral claims with reputable sources, while the GOP deployed AI-driven sentiment analysis to track misinformation on platforms favoured by conservative voters.

The OECD’s AI Principles advocate transparency, accountability, and human oversight in using AI for content moderation, promoting human rights and democratic values. By following OECD guidelines, campaigns can develop AI solutions that respect freedom of expression while mitigating the spread of harmful misinformation. These principles promote a balanced approach that prevents undue censorship while preserving democratic integrity.

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Challenges and Ethical Considerations

The integration of AI into government functions and elections presents multifaceted challenges that require careful consideration and regulation. Key issues include bias and fairness, transparency, privacy, and accountability, all of which are partially addressed by emerging governance standards.

???? ???????? Bias and Fairness: AI’s reliance on historical data can reinforce existing societal biases, disproportionately affecting marginalised groups. The EU’s AI Act directly addresses these concerns by requiring “high-risk” AI systems, like those used in welfare and security, to undergo regular bias audits and maintain transparency.

??? ???????? Transparency: Many AI applications operate as “black boxes,” obscuring their decision-making processes. UNESCO’s Ethics Recommendations encourage explainability in AI systems, especially in public decision-making, aiming to foster public trust.

??? ???????? Privacy and Surveillance: The collection of extensive personal data for AI analysis raises significant privacy concerns, especially in democratic elections. Both the OECD and UNESCO standards emphasize the importance of privacy, particularly in surveillance and electoral contexts.

??? ???????? Accountability: Determining responsibility for AI-driven decisions is challenging, especially in cases of errors or biases. The OECD’s principles outline the need for clear accountability mechanisms, encouraging governments to adopt laws that allow for recourse in cases of AI-driven discrimination or harm.

Summarising

The rapid integration of AI into government operations and democratic election processes signals a profound shift in the structure of modern governance. In public services, AI has optimised resource distribution, improved response times, and enabled dynamic adjustments in critical areas such as welfare, housing, and national security. Yet the increasing reliance on AI-driven decision making introduces complex ethical and operational challenges, particularly in ensuring transparency, accountability, and fairness. AI systems risk reinforcing biases, eroding public trust, and diminishing individual agency if not carefully managed and regularly scrutinised.

The 2024 U.S. election cycle, with former President Donald Trump leading the Republican Party (GOP) and Vice President Kamala Harris leading the Democratic National Committee (DNC), vividly illustrates AI’s transformative impact on democratic politics. Both campaigns used AI extensively for voter microtargeting, sentiment analysis, and misinformation management, showcasing AI’s capacity to personalise political messaging at an unprecedented scale. However, the deployment of AI in electoral strategy has heightened concerns over fragmentation, manipulation, and the potential for misleading media. Deepfake technologies and AI-generated disinformation complicate the ethical landscape of elections, necessitating stringent measures to preserve democratic integrity.

In response to these challenges, a suite of emerging governance standards, including the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act, UNESCO’s AI Ethics Recommendations, and the OECD’s AI Principles, aims to mitigate the ethical risks associated with AI. These frameworks provide necessary guardrails by enforcing transparency, mandating accountability, and requiring regular audits, particularly in high-stakes areas such as public welfare and electoral processes. By prioritising these principles, governments and political organisations can leverage AI’s potential while upholding democratic values and safeguarding public trust.

However, ensuring the ethical deployment of AI in governance and elections requires not only robust standards but also an active commitment to these principles. The international community faces the dual task of promoting innovation and protecting democratic ideals, necessitating ongoing dialogue, cross-border collaboration, and vigilant regulation. As AI continues to evolve, so too must the frameworks that guide its use in the public sphere. By adopting a principled approach to AI governance, nations can foster technological advancement that serves the public interest and reinforces democratic integrity. The lessons from 2024 underscore the need for vigilance, ethical consideration, and a steadfast commitment to the values that underpin open and fair governance in the age of artificial intelligence.

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