No group, no business, and no government can stop it.

Dear Stubborn Optimist,

Before we get to the regular business usually covered in this newsletter, we share with you here a deeply personal reflection from Christiana in light of the U.S. election outcome.?

As Christiana prepares to become a grandmother for the first time, she’s written a piece about what 'Robai-shin' or ‘grandmother’s heart’ means to her now. In it she says:?

“Robai-shin challenges me to radically suspend judgement. In contemplating this, I realised how very difficult it is for me! With humility I am facing the fact that I relate to others through my personal beliefs, preferences, biases, and expectations.??

I have long thought of myself as a person not only open to differences, but actively celebrating the differences among us. Today I realise that actually, my openness operates only as long as the differences are within or consistent with my value system. When I encounter a radically different value system I quickly draw up the bridge which surrounds my mental castle, happily justifying myself and leaving many in the moat.?

With even more humility I realise that I am now being called upon to lower the drawbridge, to cultivate an attitude of invitation, of empathy, patience, and understanding, creating a more conducive environment for the deep listening which will be necessary.”?

You can read the full piece here.

Removing unconscious bias and truly opening our hearts during a COP remains challenging for many of us, even as we recognise that each country comes to the table with its own set of conditions, values and agendas—and our shared backdrop is a global economy that still normalises and rewards short-term financial profit over the health of people and planet.?

The resulting complexity inherent in multilateral climate negotiations was reflected in some of the COP29 opening speeches at the beginning of the week. Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC said he didn’t go in for hopes and dreams, but was inspired by ”human ingenuity and determination. Our ability to get knocked down and to get up again over and over again, until we accomplish our goals.” He reminded his audience: “This UNFCCC process is the only place we have to address the rampant climate crisis, and to credibly hold each other to account to act on it.” He urged global cooperation to deliver.?

COP President Ilham Aliyev pledged that Azerbaijan would do its best to “find common understanding between developing and developed countries, between Global South and Global North”, he also said that fossil fuels are a “gift from god”, and that the market and “people need them”.

Meanwhile, Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that “doubling down on fossil fuels is absurd. The clean energy revolution is here. No group, no business, and no government can stop it.”

As week one draws to a close, we've seen steps in the right direction but we still have a long way to go.

OUTRAGE + OPTIMISM: ON THE CALENDAR

!! Newsflash !!? We still want to hear from you!! How can we continue to improve and shape the podcast to meet your needs in an ever changing world? We’d deeply appreciate your honest responses to our annual listener survey, which is now live. Your responses in previous years have been invaluable, and we thank you very much in advance for your participation. The survey is available here. This week: COP29 Live: We bring you Baku. Join Tom on the ground at COP29 in conversations with Barbados PM and Bridgetown Agenda superstar Mia Mottley and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy to discuss the all important climate finance deal that must be reached there. Tune in here.? ?

Also this week: COP29 Live: We tune into a Mission 2025 event moderated by Tom in which UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband shares how the UK’s high ambition climate plan (Nationally Determined Contribution) sets the tone for more science-aligned NDCs, responds to the public mandate, inspires investment and more. Other speakers from the Climate Change Committee, British International Investment and the We are Family Foundation? discuss how society can help turbocharge climate action, and how collaboration between major international powers can help tip the balance in the right direction. Tune in here.

Next week: As COP29 begins drawing to a close, join our hosts as they reflect on the progress (or lack of) made so far, what it means for the NDC submission deadline in February 2025, and how we can best look ahead to COP30 in Brazil. Wherever you get your podcasts on Thursday, November 21st.?

IN OTHER NEWS

As delegates in Baku pushed forward discussions across various agendas, a Dutch court granted Shell’s appeal against a landmark climate ruling that had compelled the company to drastically cut its carbon emissions.?

Shell’s appeal was based on its argument that the Paris Agreement imposes no obligation on companies to reduce emissions, and that governments, not courts, should mandate such actions. Obligations aside, close to 7,000 companies are setting targets aligned with the Paris goals because they see the benefits doing so brings. Government mandates however, are not yet aligned.?

While the atmosphere is indifferent to where the responsibility falls, the Dutch court’s decision is a reminder that new improved NDCs due under the Paris process by February 2025 are more important than ever.?

With the U.S. widely expected to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, some actors have begun turning to international courts and tribunals to open up additional avenues that could elicit greater climate ambition.?

Earlier this year, Vanuatu successfully advocated for a resolution in the UN General Assembly that required the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to clarify—in an advisory opinion—states' legal obligations to prevent significant harm to the climate system and the legal consequences for failing to meet those obligations. To inform its opinion, the court will draw from written submissions and oral statements. Hearings begin on December 2nd, 2024, with participants from ninety-eight States and twelve international organisations expected to speak.?

While national courts the world over have heard various climate cases—like the Shell one detailed above—this is the first time the world’s highest court will consider climate change. The resulting opinions could influence state behaviour, both within the UNFCCC and beyond, by clarifying what international law requires of nation states. The ICJ climate advisory opinion is especially important because the Court’s jurisdiction covers all UN member states, whether they are part of specific treaties, and it can draw from any source of international law.

There are many aspects to watch for in the forthcoming opinion, but one of the most significant will be whether the Court recognizes the customary law obligation to prevent significant harm to the environment applies in the climate context. If it does, this obligation would apply to all states, not just Paris Agreement signatories, meaning countries like the U.S. could still be bound even if they withdraw from Paris, with potential legal, diplomatic and geopolitical consequences for non-compliance.

If you want to follow the ICJ hearings you need to sign up online by 25 November 2024. The opinion is expected to be delivered in late 2024 or early 2025.?

With so much uncertainty ahead, we draw from Christiana’s recent poignant advice to “Take a deep breath and, with no distractions, think carefully and intentionally about what you will do to take care of yourself and those you love. And then start to extend that bubble of love and caring on a daily basis until you are able to contribute fully to the extraordinary changes we need to make in the world precisely under the circumstances we face” which she shared in climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe’s recent newsletter.?

Thank you for reading our newsletter,

With stubborn optimism,

The Outrage + Optimism team

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