On the ground at Milken 2023
Happy Friday eve, readers.?Phil Rosen here. Surprising no one, the Fed?raised interest rates by 25 basis points?yesterday.?
That puts the Fed Funds Rate above 5% for the first time since 2007. Remember, the higher that goes, the more expensive it becomes for consumers and businesses to borrow.
The move marked the 10th consecutive hike, but the Fed nodded to the possibility that it was the last one of this cycle —?more on that here.?
As for today, we're bringing you on the ground reporting from one of the?top investing conferences in the world.?
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1. Elite money managers overseeing trillions of dollars?convened at the 2023 Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles this week.?
With the Fed's decision looming, their rate forecasts looked further into the future, and Insider's Akin Oyedele had a front-row seat. The consensus was clear: they think markets are?mispositioned for a scenario where the central bank keeps rates higher for longer.
"It's hard for me to imagine the Fed lowering rates to the degree that is priced in without a much more serious economic downturn," Karen Karniol-Tambour, co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates said at the conference. "And either one of those scenarios is?not very good for markets."
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors see the odds of a rate cut rising steadily starting this summer, and are pricing in almost a 50% chance that the central bank drops its benchmark rate at the September meeting.?
David Hunt, president and CEO at PGIM, echoed the Bridgewater exec's sentiment, saying that rates are?"without a doubt"?going to stay higher for a longer stretch than what markets have priced in.?
"As our chief economist likes to say," Hunt said, "at higher rates,?bodies will continue to float to the top?over the course of the summer."
We've already witnessed some "bodies" emerge with the failure of multiple banks in the last two months.?
And with yet another Fed rate hike officially in the books, financial conditions are only going to get tighter and more companies could be caught off-guard.
Hunt anticipates the clamp-down on the banking system to?limit available credit and firms' capital bases.?
Here's how he put it:?
"We are going to see now a real slowing that begins to happen to aggregate demand because of the?decrease in the supply of credit that's coming in."
Rishi Kapoor, the co-CEO of Investcorp, which manages $50 billion in assets, said at the conference that the property sector looks?extra vulnerable?in light of recent events.
"No doubt that the second- and third-order effect of the banking sector fallout in the US, in particular, is going to cause a?constraining of financial conditions?and lending," Kapoor said.?
"The commercial real estate sector in particular, which was 50%-plus from the regional banking system, is definitely going to be limited."
What's your economic outlook for the rest of 2023? Let us know in the comments.
In other news:
2. Meet a Baillie Gifford manager who oversees a $564 million fund.?She detailed the top four investing themes she's pursuing now —?including three of her favorite stock picks.
3. Real-estate wealth manager David Wieland shared a low-risk strategy?that his mom-and-pop clients have used for decades to scale their portfolios.?Plus, he broke down what it takes to become a millionaire "hiding in plain sight."
4. A $1.1 trillion investment chief explained her three-part checklist for confirming a recession has started.?While Nuveen Asset Management's Saira Malik is expecting a downturn to hit in the next year, she still sees opportunities for buying.?These are the four stocks she recommended.
5. Oil prices have declined with markets increasingly concerned about a recession.?On Wednesday, West Texas crude dropped more than 4.4%, the steep declines coming the same day as the Fed's rate hike.?US oil prices are now trading below $70 a barrel.
This is a condensed version of Insider’s 10 Things Before the Opening Bell newsletter. To see items 6-10, sign up here to receive the full newsletter in your inbox.
This newsletter was curated by Phil Rosen.
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1 年14 A?OS DE EXPERIENCIA IMPORTANDO. ?QUé NECESITA IMPORTAR?
Screenwriter at Self-Employed
1 年Excellent!
There are too many factors to consider how we got to this point and why. Still, the path forward should include eliminating corporate welfare that doesn't return taxpayer-funded subsidies to the constituents that paid for them in the form of significant cost reductions for their goods and services. Campaign reform is a prominent component of that equation. Putting federal tax dollars back into education to target high-demand jobs will help our economy grow and lower the debt for many students without getting into loan forgiveness scenarios or depending too heavily on visas or outsourcing. Holding the Defense Department fully responsible for accounting best practices with mandatory annual independent audits will undoubtedly uncover a tremendous amount of waste that can be used to lower federal budget needs or allow excesses to be used in other areas, such as infrastructure. There is far too much profiteering baked into the system at the unreasonable expense of US taxpayers. Debit reduction, stop printing (counterfeiting) and reduce the amount of US currency in circulation, and regulate the banks similar to before the Gramm Leach Bliley Act to remove the ridiculous amount of speculation out of the industry. Sound like a good start?
Commentator, Entrepreneur, Investor
1 年Rate hikes have triggered a severe recession and probably worse. Economic hangover after decades of ZIRP + cheap money sloshing around the system has just begun. Cracks forming in CMBS, regional banks, housing, consumer credit etc. are far more serious than Wall Street is pricing in. At some point stocks will violently reprice to the downside so be prepared.
??The Milken Conference is a sight to behold, Innovators and thinkers, young and old, Discussions on healthcare, finance, and tech, All gathered here, what a great spec! Speakers with insights, so deep and profound, Networking opportunities, all around, Connections made with people from afar, Passionate innovators, all on par. 2023, a year to remember, Milken Conference, an experience to treasure, Energy and excitement, in the air, Innovation and progress, everywhere.?? As I walk around the Milken Conference in 2023, I am struck by the energy and excitement in the air. The conference is buzzing with discussions about the latest trends and innovations in various industries, from healthcare to finance to technology. I have had the opportunity to attend several panels and talks, and I am impressed by the caliber of the speakers and the depth of their insights. #MilkenConference2023 #InnovationAndProgress #HealthcareTrends #FinanceInnovations #TechInnovations #SpeakerInsights #NetworkingOpportunities #PassionateInnovators #GlobalConnections #YearToRemember #ExperienceToTreasure #EnergyAndExcitement #DeepAndProfoundInsights #IndustryLeadership #MilkenInnovators Like if you like it, don't be lazy. #Rhymesubline - writers for a penny.