Ground Control to Major BOM

The sign estimators in your company are essentially astronauts. Okay, that may seem a little far-fetched and you may be thinking, “Our company doesn’t even own a spaceship, and I rarely see so-and-so wearing a jet pack”.

Fair points, but I did say “essentially” astronauts, not “are” astronauts. They may not literally zoom around the cosmos, but they are often wandering around in uncharted territory, far from their comfort zone, and completely isolated except for the intermittent communication with those back on the ground.

Isolation

Like those intrepid explorers of space, estimators are typically a lonely bunch. Making one friend often means losing another. Not to an explosion or a to a space suit breach, but because they may have given too many hours in the Bill of Material (BOM) which makes production happy but ticks off sales, or because they have given too few hours which delights sales but makes an enemy of production.

In fact, finding that estimating sweet-spot - the Goldilocks zone - can be as rare as finding a habitable planet in our galaxy. Like the Earth is the perfect distance from the sun to support life, successful estimates must be the perfect combination of hours and material to support both the sale and profit.

Now, this isn’t really a problem when estimating standard signage like channel letters or basic pylons and monuments. Estimating these types of signs is mostly formula-based. LED population, coil and trim cap lengths, wiring, and even fabrication are all based on pre-set standards. In other words, estimating these types of signs is like going to the international space station; It’s so routine that it can be done on auto-pilot.

The problems arise when we move beyond standard building signage and venture into the unknown by estimating…GC bid packages. Or more specifically, the custom architectural signage in those packages. There are usually few specs, or no specs at all.

The Mission

The destination itself is where the differences between the two professions becomes more clear and where you will realize just how much more dangerous being an estimator is. Yes, I said it. Astronauts are wimps.

Where space shuttle pilots receive their destinations from NASA, with a well-thought out guidance system and a detailed map, estimators receive their destinations from pre-construction architectural plans or a pie-in-the sky concept drawing. These so-called maps are often no more than a dimensionless plan view or a “signage here” CAD balloon on an elevation drawing, which really amounts to little more than a hand sketch on a bar napkin.

When looking at these drawings, they constantly ask themselves, “Is that a reveal, a match plate, or the rings of Saturn”? No matter the intention, what it really is, is the event horizon: The edge of a black hole from which nothing can escape.

The Dangers

Even though we send fully detailed RFIs to the clients, we don’t always get a response and if we do, it is often in Klingon or some other language we can’t decipher. Like drifting past that specific point where an astronaut can’t escape a black hole’s gravity, estimators are also powerless to alter their course after receiving no direction from the client. This is generally not a problem: With no guidance, we just continue on our course and submit our bids based on the info we received. The real danger arises when we do get a response.

You may recall Newton’s 1st law of motion: A body remains at rest, or in uniform motion in a straight line, unless acted upon by a force. Astronauts must dodge interplanetary objects that can cause serious damage if one crashes into them, or they will at least be thrown wildly off course. You may call them asteroids. Estimators call them “salespeople” or “last minute RFI responses”.

While immersed in a project, estimators gather momentum. As the first law dictates, that momentum will carry them on a straight line until acted upon by an outside force. An RFI response will deviate one’s course. A redirect from the sales person, however - like switching to a whole new project - will catapult the hapless estimator in a 180 degree direction. If the collision itself doesn’t cause them to explode outright, the intense g-force of the sudden change in direction can cause them to blackout.

A former colleague of mine was once asked to quickly switch to an airport project after having been one week into a journey to planet Hospital Rebrand. I found him at his desk, passed out face-down in a half-full Dunkin dozen box.

Whether it’s a deviation or a redirect, the estimator’s options are the same:

A). Grit their teeth and press on.

B). Remain passed out at your desk until the deadline has passed.

Most choose, option A, of course: Estimators are people of action. They are heroes. And they don’t mind eating donuts with face imprints on them.

In those moments of reckoning, the estimators are on their own and, though they man the controls and vainly try to make corrections, they are pulled toward their fate, and that of the company, by the deadline’s gravity.

What they typically do in these cases is the equivalent to an astronaut frantically pulling levers and pushing buttons, all the while screaming “MAYDAY! WE’RE GOING DOWN”! Since they know they will never get the new quotes in time, estimators desperately throw budget numbers at the project to make the deadline. They also scream “MAYDAY! WE’RE GOING DOWN”!

It isn’t until we win the job - and start going through the drawing approval process or bid requirements - that we know if we have survived or not.

If we did survive, then to what degree? Did we lose an arm (5% GPM)? Or did we lose much more and are alive only though life support? As grim as this sounds, there are ways to stack the deck and ensure that the company not only survives, but comes out light years ahead.

1). Qualify the budget. Just like you can’t very well launch a paper airplane to Mars, you can’t design and build a 25’-0” high double-sided and rotating RBG LED roof-top channel letter for $25,000. Neither will fly.

2). Pad the unknown. If you can’t raise a response from the client/destination planet, assume the worst and add extra material and labor, and go a little high on those last-minute budgets.

3). Qualify your assumptions. Note down your course and calculations. Like a black box or a flight recorder, clearly stating what you estimated - and how - will provide the necessary backup to extract a profitable sale. Better yet, create drawings if you can. Like a map, these will more clearly illustrate where you were going, or at least where you intended to go.

4). CYA. We all know what this means, but send emails to the client, and copy support staff, on what questions you have asked, as well as the responses. Even if they are in Klingon.

Reentry

So now you know, from this… slightly dramatic analogy, that estimating is almost exactly like being an astronaut. The destination may be dictated by others, but the estimators decide how we get there by making decisions in real time based on changing conditions. They are the explorers. They decide the course, ask all relevant questions to ensure a successful mission, and then leave clear maps of exactly where they arrived, and how.

If it seems like estimators are a bit spacey and are living in their own worlds, that’s because they are. Not only have they charted the worlds they find, each has it’s own gravity that is hard to escape. The larger the project, the stronger the pull. Some, like myself, can still be seen through a telescope, slowly orbiting a rebranded baseball stadium.

Even though they may be stuck in those remote spots for some time, they have left intergalactic bread crumbs to ensure that the company can find its way to these new and hopefully profitable destinations. If the estimator is still orbiting when the company arrives, please launch them a tether and reel them back in.

If you’re reluctant to do so as maybe a few details were missed and the GPM is lower than it should be, remember that they did the best they could with the time they had. If that isn’t enough, then they are not above bribing you with a beer. And a hug: Have I mentioned how lonely we estimators are?