The Grid We Take for Granted

Wind energy was supposed to be reliable but now, for the third day in a row, Germany and neighbours are bereft of the renewable power source because the wind isn't blowing.

In Washington State, worried electricity suppliers are talking about how "dunkenflaute" is a real danger for residents in future - and that could affect British Columbia too.

Standing at dawn overlooking Vancouver's harbour, I watch a container ship glide past, accompanied by the daily ballet of tugs, commuter ferries, and working vessels – all powered by the reliable energy that built our modern world. What troubles my sleep these days is BC Hydro's ambitious – some might say reckless – plan to shutter Vancouver Island's natural gas power plant, even as our province has become a net importer of electricity due to drought conditions.

It's not just Vancouver Island's one utility-sized gas power plant facing closure next year because B.C. Hydro is ending its contract. Across British Columbia, we're seeing a systematic push to squeeze out many forms of natural gas power generation as well as industrial equipment powered by gas.?

The argument for this is that tough climate rules might trigger innovation that preserves function while reducing climate emissions. While that might be an intuitively appealing thought, in practice we're eliminating reliable power sources and tools before their replacements are truly ready.??

B.C.’s provincial utility has launched its first power call in 15 years, seeking 3,000 gigawatt hours of new "clean" electricity. Industry insiders are whispering me that two-thirds of the proposals are likely to fall short of requirements. Meanwhile, as Barry Penner, KC Penner of the Energy Futures Institute keeps reminding us, BC Hydro is already buying power from our neighbours just to keep our lights on .

Energy has to be reliable as well as clean. Here’s a word we need to learn from our German friends: "dunkelflaute" – those periods when the wind simply stops blowing. There has been no wind in north west Europe now for days, plunging the nation into a dunkelflaute funk. For a country where wind power provides nearly a quarter of the electricity, a wind drought creates havoc with the power grid, forcing the authorities to fire up coal plants or import nuclear power from France.?

As a result of the latest dunkelflaute, now in its third day, German wind power output is at 1/350th of its installed capacity, sending electricity prices soaring.?

Meanwhile, German economic performance built on a predictable energy system is in rapid decline. All things considered, this serves as a stark reminder that renewable energy, for all its promise, needs reliable backup.?

Yet here we are in British Columbia, planning to eliminate our own backup power sources even as we face increasing water shortages – with some regions at just 50-55% of normal water levels, the driest on record in over 100 years.

In Washington State, the Pacific Northwest's most senior utility executives have just fired a warning shot: in a letter to energy regulators in the capital Olympia, they revealed that blind faith in renewables is leaving the state struggling to keep its own lights on.?

When they're facing their own shortfalls during water droughts or windless days, where exactly does BC Hydro think our backup power will come from? During September and December 2023, more than a quarter of BC's electricity had to be imported from the United States and Alberta.

Getting the energy transition wrong is a real risk if reliability is abandoned as a fundamental principle of being an energy utility. Warned the Washington energy suppliers: “If reliability failures do occur, these have the potential to result in high costs to consumers stemming from high market prices and the acquisition of emergency or unplanned capacity, and potentially slowing progress in investment in long-term resources that advance the energy transition.”?

This is why these experts keep talking about "clean firm" power. Think of it as electricity you can count on, day or night, rain or shine, wind or calm. Natural gas plants, the very ones BC Hydro wants to phase out, can provide this reliability. They're the backup singers to our hydroelectric lead vocalist – not always in the spotlight, but essential to the performance.

To keep the lights on all the time, in addition to renewables we also need to be talking about nuclear; carbon capture and sequestration technologies that decarbonize the long-term usage of natural gas (and, yes, potentially even coal); ultra-long duration electricity storage using new technologies; and the introduction over time of carbon-neutral gas into distribution infrastructure that works well and has already been paid for.??

BC Hydro's latest plans include $36 billion in grid upgrades, but they're betting heavily on a future powered by intermittent sources and battery storage. Let me share a reality check about battery storage that should give us pause. A homeowner recently documented their experience with a sophisticated home battery system, similar to a Tesla Powerwall. Despite its impressive technology and considerable cost, it could only power their basic needs – some lights, the refrigerator, and a few crucial circuits – for about 12 hours. Scale that up to powering an entire province's worth of homes, businesses, and increasingly, all our equipment and vehicles, and the magnitude of the challenge becomes clear.

That’s the mega scale, but there are also some worrying signs when you take a microscope to local communities. Some municipal governments have felt inspired to get in on the action by banning the use of natural gas in buildings - a controversial step that risks system instability and increased costs to homeowners. The problem is such that the province Quebec has stepped in to curtail local bans, followed by Washington State voters who last night voted to end the practice.?

As I watch those vessels navigate our busy harbour, I think about how BC Hydro's own data shows electricity demand will increase by 15% by 2030. Even more concerning, meteorologists are expecting a strong El Ni?o climate pattern bringing warmer weather, which could mean higher freezing levels and more limited snowpack – exactly what we don't need for our hydroelectric system.

Those twinkling harbour lights that symbolize our prosperity could easily go dark if we continue down this path. The reality is stark: we're dismantling reliable power sources while simultaneously becoming more dependent on neighbours who are themselves warning they may not have power to spare. This isn't bold planning – it's a recipe for blackouts.?

The path to a sustainable future isn't through abandoning proven technologies before their replacements are truly ready. It's through careful planning, honest engineering, and the wisdom to know the difference between bold vision and blind faith. Right now, I fear we're choosing the latter, ignoring both the hard lessons that Europe has already learned and the practical limitations of current technologies.