The Greying Globe, Its Implications for Young People

The Times recently reported that a rapidly ageing population and an all-time low fertility rate puts Japan on course to have one child left in 695 years.

Our choices are depopulating earth. Simply put. We're entering an era where the elderly will outnumber the young, says Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute. Seemingly, the chapter of population explosion is over and we are now living in the contrast.

Our modern values—valuing autonomy, self-actualization, and convenience over starting families—have led us to the brink of a longterm population decline, suggests Eberstadt. Left unchecked, our progressive values could trigger a demographic crisis if not balanced with considerations for family and community.

Projections show that by 2040, the global population under 50 will decrease everywhere except in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This region, with its average of 4.3 births per woman among 1.2 billion people, is a comparative bastion of procreation. However, even SSA is not immune to the broader trends of declining fertility, influenced by various factors like urbanization, education, and changes in gender roles. Fertility rates in the region have dropped significantly from 6.8 births per woman in the late 1970s.

This is a complex issue with no easy solution. Discriminatory immigration policies, persistent poverty, uneven development, rigid family norms, and outdated labor policies all contribute to the depopulation scare and its potential implications for young people within the context of global economy, culture, power dynamics and purposive deployment of technology. Economically, fewer young people mean fewer workers, which could strain economies unless there's significant innovation in productivity or changes in labor policies. Culturally, the shift could alter the fabric of societies, potentially leading to a loss of cultural diversity or changes in family structures. Geopolitically, countries with younger populations might gain strategic advantages in terms of labor and military might. This is the big picture and it looks grim.

When you zoom in, you see the irony, that there are countries, especially in Africa, where population growth is still a concern. For example, Egypt's youthful population is growing so fast that its President, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, had to call for a "less than one" child per family policy.

For a deeper dive into these challenges and solutions, read Eberstadt's insights in the November/December 2024 edition of Foreign Affairs.