Grey Zone Developments

SRSRM has been reporting on the Grey Zone since 2019, today we regard the Grey Zone as physical and cyber operations directed against facilities or systems falling short of normal military operations, designed to assist a foreign power. It can have two purposes: first to undermine the confidence of the population in its government or way of life, and second, to test and erode national capabilities in a period of tension and crisis leading up to hostilities. We also regard hostile influence operations, as part of Grey Zone operations designed to undermine public confidence.

Professional sabotage operations are designed to be non-attributable or deniable. Russia uses Grey Zone operations to skirt around the edges of NATO’s Article 5,an aspect of the NATO alliance that challenges Western diplomats and politicians alike. The item on Latvia, below describes the use of proxies by the GRU to promote deniability. Proxies have been featured in our reporting in the past either in real life or as part of hacking as a service, (HAAS). Two incidents at Western military installations in the past 2 weeks have brought the topic into focus.

NATO Airfield security

https://aussiedlerbote.de/en/enhances-security-measures-at-geilenkirchen-airfield-within-natos-jurisdiction/

Located close to the Dutch/German border the Luftwaffe base at Geilenkirchen locked down on August 27 after concerns about contamination in the local water supply. This is the base for the NATO E3 AWACs fleet. The alert was stood down the following day. Thanks to our follower Andy Grief for the share.

COMMENTS.

1.??? The NATO AWACS fleet is vital to the operation of the NATO air-policing missions in the Baltic and Black Sea regions. The latter may also contribute to the defence of Ukraine.

2.??? Item 10 in our June edition reported on the find of a cache of explosives hidden near a NATO pipeline and fuel depot in the South of Germany.

3.??? Germany has a mature view of the Sabotage threat probably informed by the absorption of the former DDR’s ?Willi Sanger Parachute Battalion into their armed forces. Department 4 of the German National Security Agency deals with this topic.

COMMENT ENDS.

Norway airfield security.

https://www.twz.com/air/sabotage-confirmed-at-norwegian-air-base#:~:text=A%20cut%20cable%20at%20the,concerning%20drone%20activity%20in%20Germany.&text=Norway%20has%20revealed%20that%20one,been%20the%20target%20of%20sabotage

On Friday, 23 August, it was reported that a communications cable leading to the Norwegian airbase at Evenes had been deliberately cut in April. ?

COMMENTS:

1.??? In 2022 a Norwegian fibre to Svalbard was cut in an undersea crushing attack. Svalbard is home to the world’s largest commercial ground station with a global customer base. In protective terms, pipelines, railway lines and cable runs are classed as linear vulnerable points.? (LVP). These are particularly difficult to protect from physical attack. Measures to protect the availability of service might include:

i). An understanding of the acceptable interruption time, or restoration time objective (RTO).

ii). Diversity of service required to meet the RTO.

iii). Availability of a rapid repair capability.?

?

Latvia.? Recruiting proxies over Telegram. ?A long read from Insider.Ru reports on GRU use of Telegram to inspire espionage, sabotage and criminality. Includes using proxies to photograph a base hosting US helicopters. In UK we have seen proxies intimidating Iranian dissidents here and sabotaging a Ukranian courier business by arson in North London.

Disambiguation:? Grey Zone is not to be confused with the US-based Gray Zone website which is certainly designed to undermine public confidence in institutions.

How Can We Help?

With course qualified and operationally experienced counter-sabotage surveyors we can help in the following areas.

·????? We can conduct a counter-sabotage review of your operations to determine your essential services, your most critical assets and how to protect them against well-trained saboteurs and proxies. This provides you with a layer of assurance and demonstrates good governance.

·????? For large institutions, we can review your business continuity policies to ensure they are aligned to mitigate threats from a malicious nation-state actor.

·????? For facility risk owners and security managers, we can run a two-day orientation course.

·????? For institutions requiring their own counter-sabotage assurance capability we can provide longer training courses for your surveyors and auditors.?

Our thinking is aligned with ISO 22361 - Crisis Management Guidelines, a recognised standard representing sound planning practice.

For institutions based in the UK our methodology aligns with government guidance including the recently published National Resilience Framework. This will help public and private institutions understand how to engage with local and national authorities.