Green Rush or Consolidation? The German Medical Cannabis Market in Focus
Since the legalization of medical cannabis in Germany in 2017, the industry has seen rapid growth. Yet, while some describe the current phase as a “Green Rush,” reminiscent of developments in the United States, others wonder whether the market is already moving toward consolidation. This debate is becoming increasingly relevant against the backdrop of political uncertainties and regulatory changes.
Understanding the “Green Rush”
The term “Green Rush” originated in the United States in 2012 when Washington and Colorado became the first states to legalize cannabis. This economic surge attracted entrepreneurs and investors eager to seize new market opportunities, drawing comparisons to the historical Gold Rush. Similarly, in Germany, the cannabis industry experienced significant momentum, especially following the removal of medical cannabis from the Narcotics Act (BtMG) in April 2024. This reform not only simplified the prescribing process and reduced bureaucratic barriers but also fueled industry growth.
From Disillusionment to Renewed Momentum
When Germany’s coalition government announced plans for comprehensive cannabis legalization in its 2021 coalition agreement, it sparked enthusiasm and optimism across the industry. Many businesses began preparing for a rapidly expanding market that would encompass both medical and recreational cannabis.
However, by late 2022, it became increasingly evident that the proposed legalization would not materialize as initially envisioned. Industry expectations were tempered, leading to a sense of disillusionment. Some observers even predicted an impending consolidation.
These concerns were alleviated with the removal of medical cannabis from the Narcotics Act in April 2024, which opened up new growth opportunities. Yet, challenges remain: the implementation of commercial supply chains (Pillar II) is urgently needed to adequately support the now-legal recreational market while maintaining clear separation from medical use.
Regulatory Uncertainty and Political Challenges
Today, the German cannabis market remains dynamic and continues to grow. Insights shared at the Executive Summit in Berlin two weeks ago highlighted key challenges and opportunities. For instance, only 20% of the population currently knows that medical cannabis is available as a treatment option. Raising awareness and destigmatizing cannabis remains essential to unlock the market’s untapped potential. At this stage, collaboration between industry players is more important than competition. Joint efforts are needed to educate the public and foster market development.
The consensus among experts is clear: it is too early for consolidation. The market remains vibrant, with room for innovation, growth, and new entrants. However, the looming federal election has created uncertainty about the future of cannabis regulation. The past has demonstrated that stable regulatory frameworks are critical for sustained market growth. Germany’s medical cannabis sector is still young and requires long-term perspectives to provide much-needed planning security. The upcoming government transition raises the question of whether recent progress will be preserved or if the market risks being rolled back to its state before April 1, 2024—a scenario that would create significant challenges for both the industry and patients.
A look abroad reveals a noticeable global shift in attitudes toward cannabis. In many countries, cannabis is increasingly being recognized as a legitimate medical treatment, leading to a globally rising demand. Germany has the potential to remain a leader in Europe. The coming months will be crucial in shaping the path toward a stable and innovative future for the German cannabis industry.
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Gesch?ftsführer bei ALPHATOPICS GmbH
3 个月This statement again fails to recognise that the prescription of cannabis as no-label use cannot be a sustainable long-term option for the care of patients. Such an option is not foreseen in our pharmaceutical legislation. Triggered by the thalidomide scandal, there is a clear requirement that medicinal products must be authorised and tested for quality, efficacy and safety as part of this authorization, in Germany since 1978. It is wishful thinking to assume that this requirement will now be thrown overboard by cannabis. In the light of the currently available evidence, the prescription of cannabis is a medical treatment trial, no more and no less. It follows that, in addition to Sativex, we initially need other authorised medicinal products that can then be used off-label on an interim basis until we actually have authorised medicinal products for an increasing number of indications. In the medium and long term, flowers are not an option for evidence-based and appropriate pharmacotherapy.