Greece: Deception of Pre-Voting Polls

The 2024 European Elections have finally run their course and all votes have been counted.

Decisions have been made.

Governments haven’t changed of course, not yet anyway (bonjour, France!).

But governments have listened.

The European election results in Greece have taught us three things:

1. Nearly 6 out of 10 people didn’t turn up to vote (this is the lowest turnout since Greece entered the EU).
2. The government in power lost approximately 13 points.
3. Pre-election polls are tools of influence.

*And it’s that last point that we are going to stay on…

Pre-election polls are a tool for influence; they are the ultimate tool for deception.

Let’s see why:

The Bandwagon Effect

One of the most prominent ways pre-election polls influence voter behavior is through the bandwagon effect. This phenomenon occurs when voters support a candidate or party simply because they appear to be the most popular or likely to win. When polls show a clear front-runner, undecided voters or those with weak preferences might align themselves with the majority, believing their vote will be more meaningful if it contributes to the winning side. This can artificially inflate the perceived support for a candidate, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy where the predicted outcome is reinforced by the poll itself.

The Underdog Effect

Conversely, pre-election polls can also trigger the underdog effect. This occurs when voters rally behind a candidate who is trailing in the polls, motivated by a desire to support the underdog and disrupt the expected outcome. While less common than the bandwagon effect, the underdog effect can significantly impact close races, leading to unexpected surges in support for candidates perceived to be losing ground.

Voter Turnout

Pre-election polls can influence voter turnout in several ways. When polls predict a landslide victory for one candidate or party, supporters of the trailing candidate may feel demotivated and abstain from voting, believing their vote won't make a difference. Conversely, supporters of the leading candidate might also skip voting, confident that victory is assured. Both scenarios can lead to lower voter turnout and skew the election results away from what they might have been in a more engaged electoral environment.

Strategic Voting

Strategic voting is another significant influence of pre-election polls. Voters often use poll results to decide not just who they want to win, but who they think can realistically win. This can lead to tactical voting, where individuals vote not for their preferred candidate, but for a more viable candidate who has a better chance of defeating a less desired opponent. This behavior distorts true voter preferences and can lead to outcomes that do not accurately reflect the electorate's wishes.

Media Amplification

The media plays a crucial role in amplifying the influence of pre-election polls. Constant coverage and analysis of poll results can create a sense of momentum and inevitability around certain candidates, further embedding the bandwagon effect. Media outlets often highlight shifts in poll numbers, framing the election as a dynamic and dramatic race, which can overshadow substantive discussions about policies and platforms. This emphasis on horse-race journalism reduces elections to a contest of popularity rather than a deliberative democratic process.

Psychological Impact

The psychological impact of pre-election polls on voters cannot be underestimated. Polls can shape perceptions of legitimacy and electability. A candidate consistently leading in the polls can be perceived as more competent or deserving of office, influencing voter perceptions even before any votes are cast. This psychological priming can alter the decision-making process of voters, steering them towards candidates they perceive as winners.

The Role of Polling Accuracy

Lastly, the accuracy of polls themselves is a crucial factor. Inaccurate polls can mislead the public and distort the electoral process. Over-reliance on flawed polling data can lead to significant miscalculations by both voters and political campaigns. In recent years, the accuracy of polling has been questioned, with several high-profile elections yielding results that starkly contrasted with pre-election predictions. This erosion of trust in polling can have long-term implications for democratic engagement and the perceived legitimacy of electoral outcomes. In Greece, it is highly common for polling agencies to allow for up to and over 100% margin of error in attempt to seem valid retrospectively.

Conclusion

Pre-election polls are powerful tools that can shape voter behavior in profound ways. While they provide valuable insights into public opinion, their influence on electoral outcomes raises important questions about the integrity of the democratic process. As we reflect on the lessons from the 2024 European Elections in Greece, it is crucial to critically examine the role of pre-election polls and strive for a more informed and engaged electorate, free from the deceptive sway of polling data.