The Great Software Shake-Up: What’s Coming Next?

Let’s take a step back and look at how technology changes industries. By doing this, we can get a clue about how software might evolve. There’s an old saying that “history tends to rhyme,” and if we pay attention, we might hear the familiar tune of change approaching.

Remember How Media Changed?

Before the internet, creating media like newspapers, magazines, and TV shows was really expensive. You had to pay for writers, editors, and distributors. Because it cost so much to make, it had to make money. People paid for newspapers, cable TV, and books. Warren Buffett loved newspapers because they had predictable income and almost no competition.

Then, the internet showed up. Media companies thought it would help them reach more people and cut distribution costs. What they didn’t see coming was how the internet would make distribution and creation almost free. Suddenly, anyone could create content without paying a dime. This led to a flood of user-generated content—think about all the photos, videos, and blogs we see today. Since making content was free, it didn’t have to make money, which changed everything.

The Big Media Disruption

Traditional media couldn’t compete with all the free content online. Their high production costs put them at a huge disadvantage. As a result, the real value moved to platforms that managed all this content, like YouTube and Instagram.

Now, It’s Software’s Turn

Creating software today is expensive because skilled developers cost a lot. Software companies have to charge for licenses and subscriptions to cover these costs and make a profit. Software businesses have been very profitable, often with over 90% margins because distribution costs are low.

But things are about to change. Large Language Models (LLMs)—advanced AI tools—can write and understand code. This means the cost of developing software could drop dramatically. When making software becomes cheap, we’ll see an explosion of new software, just like we saw with online content.

What’s Next for Software?

Just as Vogue was overtaken by thousands of fashion influencers, big software companies like Salesforce might be replaced by many smaller, more specialized tools. These tools will work together to meet users' needs. The high cost of software development, which used to protect big companies from competition, will no longer be a barrier.

A New Era

Majoring in computer science today might soon feel like majoring in journalism in the late '90s—once a safe bet, now facing uncertain times. The tech industry is always evolving, and the next big shift is coming.

So, as you sip your coffee and think about the future, remember that big changes are on the horizon. Stay curious, stay adaptable, and get ready for an exciting ride in the world of software.