Great power politics at play in the Artic
As the world grapples with the impacts of climate change it is important to note that not all nation states see a warming climate as a negative. In recent years the decline of Artic ice cover has revived Russian ambitions to open the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a sea line of communication. When navigable, the NSR provides a significantly shorter route between the North Atlantic and the Pacific ~14,000 km compared to ~23,700 km via the Suez Canal route.
The NSR has the potential to transform Russia's economic interests and provides an alternate route for China and other nations wishing for alternate SLOCs that avoid the Strait of Malacca and / or the Suez Canal. China in particular has shown significant interest in a 'Polar Silk Road' and Chinese firms have stepped into the gap left by European companies working in the NSR abiding by sanctions placed on Russia in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine.
Nikkei Asia has an excellent infographic article that uses satellite imagery and 3D mapping to provide perspective on the opportunity the Northern Sea Route provides. Start here to orient yourself to the geographical context ??
Mining Technology & MINE Magazine reports on the Russian Government’s NSR Development Plan - full article here. Russia aims to transport at millions of tonnes annually of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, coal, and other cargoes via the NSR. ??
"The Russian government is trying to build a new Arctic economy. According to the government statement, the NSR is a key element in developing transport connectivity in Russia’s most hard-to-access territories. The leading Arctic companies, such as Vostok Oil, Novatek, and Gazprom Neft, intend to increase the volume of shipping in Arctic waters to over 190 million tonnes over the next few years." ?
The Development Plan includes construction of 50 icebreakers and ice-class vessels, new or upgraded ports and terminals and a group of satellites to support vessels in the area.?
Of course the Artic region and the NSR are not just an economic SLOC - this region has always been of geopolitical interest to the major powers and particularly in the Cold War. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, however, the US and European peace dividend has seen NATO presence and capability in the Artic circle wane.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has produced a report on 'The Ice Curtain' and a supporting infographic article that provides a quality OSINT perspective on Russia's military build up in the region. Putin sees the Artic as a significant geopolitical opportunity where Russia has the benefits of proximity and a substantial qualitative and quantitative military advantage.
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"Russia’s military posture in the Arctic emphasizes air and maritime early warning and defense, highlighted by the reopening of 50 previously closed Soviet-era military posts. This includes the refurbishment of 13 air bases, 10 radar stations, 20 border outposts, and 10 integrated emergency rescue stations. Russian special forces units are also part of an Artic Brigade and have deployed to the region for exercises and training."
Reuters News Agency reports that Russia is a decade ahead of the US and its allies in infrastructure and military forces in the region. Given the specialised icebreaker fleets required to operate effectively in the Artic, reducing the capability gap would require substanital diversion of resources for an already stretched US military needing to fully complete a pivot to the Indo-Pacific. ??
The Artic isn't a region that Australia pays particular attention to but there is no doubt of the geopolitical importance of the NSR and wider Artic region. It provides Russia the opportunity to secure its homeland, better leverage natural resources and a secured avenue of approach to the North Atlantic, Pacific and missile routes to both Europe and North America.
-BD
* ABC News https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-11/russias-northern-sea-route-gamble-vladimir-putin/102020368
** gCaptain https://gcaptain.com/russias-rosatom-and-chinese-firm-to-establish-year-round-arctic-shipping-route/
Principal Consultant @ Kinexus Australia
2 个月The passage Russia is creating is happening unabated and un observed . I was also interested when speaking to a particular person who has been doing some work in the north Pole, in order to maintain communications they basically have to point the sat dishes at the horizon.
(Note - the views expressed are my own)
2 个月Antarctic has similar issues that are being ignored.
Explorer of people, places & possibilities...
2 个月A very interesting topic of discussion, Ben; no doubt you're keeping up with Dr Elizabeth Buchanan's work...