Gray zone warfare: The invisible threat to US technological supremacy

China steals up to $600 billion annually in US intellectual property. Russia manipulates our social media to polarize our society. Iran employs proxy forces to extend its influence while maintaining deniability. These aren't acts of war in the traditional sense - they're gray zone warfare, and they're steadily eroding American advantages without triggering military responses.

What is gray zone warfare?

The US Special Operations Command defines it as "competitive interactions that fall between traditional war and peace." Think of industrial espionage, cyber attacks, economic coercion, and disinformation campaigns - activities calibrated to stay just below the threshold that would trigger conventional military response.

Our adversaries favor these tactics because they work. Why risk direct confrontation with superior US military forces when you can achieve strategic objectives through more subtle means? China can acquire sensitive technology through systematic theft while Russia influences elections through targeted social media campaigns, all at relatively low cost and risk.

The scale of the threat

The numbers are staggering. Beyond the hundreds of billions lost to IP theft, adversaries plant backdoors in industrial control systems, compromise supply chains, and establish persistent access to critical networks. The 2015 Russian attack on Ukraine's power grid demonstrated how cyber operations can directly impact civilian infrastructure.

But the real danger lies in the coordination of these activities. A cyber attack might be timed to coincide with a disinformation campaign, while economic pressure reinforces the desired narrative. This integration of multiple vectors multiplies their impact while complicating attribution and response.

Why traditional defenses fall short

Defense organizations face unique challenges in this domain. Traditional security measures focus on protecting classified information and physical assets, but gray zone campaigns often target unclassified technical data, supplier relationships, and human expertise. The extended supply chains of modern defense programs create countless potential attack surfaces.

Moreover, when incidents can be traced back to state actors, existing frameworks often prove inadequate. Actions falling below the threshold of armed conflict don't trigger traditional military responses, while legal remedies move too slowly to prevent damage.

The path forward

Effective defense requires a new approach combining human expertise with advanced artificial intelligence. AI can spot patterns across vast datasets and process intelligence from multiple sources simultaneously, identifying coordinated campaigns that human analysts might miss. However, traditional AI systems struggle with specialized defense applications, often operating as "black boxes" that can't explain their decisions.

What's needed is a modular, configurable approach to AI that maintains strict security and control while enabling rapid adaptation to new threats. At Talbot West, we're pioneering such solutions through a cognitive hive AI architecture , which coordinates specialized modules across multiple domains while maintaining the transparency critical for defense applications.

The future belongs to organizations that can detect, understand, and counter these evolving threats while preserving their core capabilities. Those that cling to traditional security models risk finding themselves increasingly vulnerable to sophisticated gray zone campaigns.

Read a more in-depth version of this article on the Talbot West blog: "Gray zone warfare: a growing threat to US security "

Jacob Andra is founder and CEO of Talbot West, an AI enablement firm. Connect with him to discuss how your organization can strengthen its defenses against gray zone warfare.