GRAIN & PRICES WEEKLY REPORT

Good morning Farmer Family ...

US farm markets closed mixed but mostly higher on Friday.

Corn prices saw moderate gains, rising by 0.24%.

Soybeans failed to follow suit, and eased by 1.01%, with soymeal posting 1.69% losses, and soybean oil down by 0.47%.

The wheat complex, meantime, ended the end week session with double digit gains, as Chicago SRW settled up by 1.65%; Kansas City HRW was 1.95% higher; and Minneapolis spring wheat, which was the weaker, was still 1.38% higher at the bell.?

For the week, corn prices rose by 2.76%.?

Soybeans slipped 2.06% lower.?

The rest of the soy-complex was mixed, as meal was 4.1% weaker, while bean oil gained about 1.5% over the week.?

The wheat complex was the leader of the week, as Chicago gained 4.57%, Kansas City soared by 4.76%, and MPLS spring wheat, was 4.36% higher.?

Going inside the numbers, corn prices closed the week $0.170 firmer at $6.34/bu.

Soybean was $0.310 lower from the prior Friday at 14.76/bu.

Soymeal tumbled by $19.90/smt, closing at $466 smt.

Soy oil lifted $0.85, to close at $57.46.

CBOT soft red winter (SRW) prices gained $0.310 for the week to close at $7.10/bu.

KCBT hard red winter (HRW) prices rose by $0.380, ending at $8.36/bu.

MGE hard red spring (HRS) prices jumped by $0.360 to $8.61/bu.

Wheat and corn prices posted weekly gains for the first time in five weeks, ending stronger on Friday.

The weekly EIA report indicated a 4,000 barrel per day increase in ethanol production for the week that ended on 3/17 to 1.014 million bpd.?

Stocks were also on the rise, up 1.074 million barrels to 26.394 million barres.?

Over half (553,000 barrels) of the build was in the Gulf, with another 328,000 barrels increase for the East Coast, implying inventory build for exports.?

During the week, meantime, we saw an high demand for U.S. corn exports, that supported the market.

The USDA, indeed, made its fourth consecutive daily announcement of old-crop U.S. corn sales to China on Friday, totalling 2.1 million tonnes over four days.

A weaker dollar lent some support to U.S. commodities along all the week, while risk appetite returned following steps to shore up the banking sector.

Thursday export sales data from FAS had 1.236 MMT of old crop bookings from the week that ended 3/9.?

That was down from 1.4 MMT last week and from 1.8 MMT the week prior, but still moderately above the prior four-week average, and in the upper range of the pre-report estimates.?

USDA also reported 183k MT of new crop bookings for the week, bringing the forward book to 1.859 MMT.?

Old crop commitments were tallied at 31.886 MMT as of 3/9.?

However, that is still 39% behind last year’s pace and is 65% of the season’s forecast.?

Meantime, corn export shipments notched a new marketing-year high and moved 52% above the prior four-week average.

As for wheat, USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 336,672 MT of wheat was sold for export during the week that ended 3/9.?

That was up 26% for the week, and was 130% above the same week last year.?

Philippines was the top buyer with 122k MT for the week.?

However, the weekly data had only 17.738 MMT of old crop wheat commitments as of 3/9.?

That is still 5.3% behind last year’s pace, though the lag shrank from 7.6% back in December.?

USDA also reported 155,900 MT of new crop wheat sales for the week, which was above pre-report estimates and set the forward book at 656k MT.

However, that was still behind compared 1 MT a year ago.

Also, wheat export shipments this week shifted 45% below the prior four-week average.

Meantime, the Black Sea Export Corridors deal is set to renew today, barring any party (amongst Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and/or the U.N.) rejecting a renewal.?

As it stands, Russia seeks a 60-day renewal while the other parties are looking for the 120-day pre-programmed renewal.?

China’s president Xi Jinping is set to visit Russia next week, marking both the first visit to Russia since the war started in Ukraine, and Xi’s first foreign visit since his 3rd term reelection, and , of course, the Ukraine war is at the core of the talks.?

Also, the International Criminal Court (ICC) later on Friday issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of war crimes.

And that, supported both wheat and corn markets.

As for soybean, NOPA data from their Wednesday report indicated February crush among members at?165.41 mbu.

That was 0.22% above last year and down 8.6% vs. Jan, though average daily crush was 130,000 bushels higher.

The weekly export sale report from USDA showed 665k MT of old crop soybean sales for the week that ended 3/9.?

That was at the upper end of the range of estimates and was a 6-wk high.?

Old crop exports came in at 773k MT for the week, bringing the season’s total to 42.839 MMT.?

Outstanding sales were 6.496 MMT for a total old crop commitment of 49.335 MMT.?

Last year’s commitments were 53.624 MMT at the time and the WASDE forecast is for 54.84 MMT.?

Soybean export shipments were 33% higher week-over-week but still 37% below the prior four-week average.

For the products, FAS reported 220k MT of 22/23 and 35k MT of 23/24 meal sales, and 3,869 MT of 22/23 oil sales.?

For soymeal, sales were down 32% wk/wk, though inline with estimates.?

Soymeal commitments were 8.265 MMT as of 3/9, compared to the 12.43 MMT WASDE estimate and 8.792 MMT last year.

However, soybeans failed to follow suit other grains and fell for a fifth consecutive week, as a record-breaking Brazilian harvest continued to apply downward pressure.

Also, faltering crude oil prices along the week, made an additional down pressure.

At the end of this month, USDA will release its highly anticipated Prospective Plantings report.?

Uncertainty continues to reign supreme in all markets in 2023.

Meantime, an Allendale survey suggests US producers intend to plant 90.414 million acres of 23/24 corn, compared to USDA’s working 91m acre number.?

As for soybean, Allendale's survey of producers, has US 23/24 soybean acres at 87.768 million, compared to the Feb Outlook Forum’s 87.5m initial forecast.?

As for wheat, Allendale survey results had wheat area at 48.706m acres, below the 49.5m in the USDA’s Feb Outlook Forum.?

In this context, corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm across the central U.S. on Friday after rising 2 to 7 cents higher at four Midwestern locations.?

A Nebraska processor bucked the overall trend after sliding 2 cents lower.

Soybean basis bids inched a penny higher at an Ohio elevator and improved 4 cents at an Iowa river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..

As for wheat, basis levels were mixed across classes and export regions after futures prices recovered from prior week's lows.?

HRS basis was flat in the Gulf and down in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) as normalized rail performance helped alleviate some pressure.?

HRW basis was steady in the Gulf while PNW HRW basis drifted down in search of demand.?

SRW basis was down slightly to remain competitive as CBOT board prices increased.?

SW prices rebounded slightly from last week's low, meantime.

As a result, as at March 16, 2023, FOB prices saw US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) valued at $366/mt (up $16 from prior week).

US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was valued at $299/mt (up $8 from prior week).

Northern Durum offers from the Great Lakes, for April 2023 delivery were quoted at $11.85/bu ($435.00/MT), unchanged from the prior week.

As for corn, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $288/mt (up $10 from prior week).

As for soybean, US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $587/mt (down $8from prior week).

USDA’s national weekly Ethanol report had the cash average ethanol prices from $2.01 to $2.15/gal regionally this week.?

The corn oil market was mostly 2-4 cents lower from 52 to 58 cents/lb.?

DDGS were quoted from $235 to $280/ton regionally,down from last week $246 to $296.67/ton.?

DDGS prices to the Export Point averaged between $273.5 to $342/ton, weaker from prior week.

USDA quoted the week’s average B100 price at $5.79/gal in IL, last week in MN was at $4.70/gal.?

In other news, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said its weekly Commitments of Traders report scheduled for release on Friday has been delayed while its staff reviews and validates data following a cyber-related incident last month at ION Trading.?

The CFTC did not offer a new release date.

In energy markets, oil prices settled lower Friday, reversing early gains of more than $1 a barrel.

Brent crude futures, indeed, settled down by $1.73, or 2.3%, to $72.97 a barrel.?

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.61, or 2.4%, at $66.74.

At their session low, both benchmarks were down more than $3.?

For the week, Brent fell nearly by 12% in the week, its biggest weekly fall since December.?

WTI futures fell 13% since Friday's close, its biggest since last April.

Banking sector fears, has mounted concern that the oil is not as so safe a place as cash or gold, on worries about possible recession.

Thus, oil prices tracked equity markets lower.

OPEC+ members attributed this week's price weakness to financial drivers rather than any supply and demand imbalance, adding that they expected the market to stabilise.

On this wake, prices had recovered some ground after support measures from the European Central Bank and U.S. lenders, but dropped again when SVB Financial Group said it had filed for reorganization.

WTI's fall this week to less than $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021 could spur the U.S. government to start refilling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, boosting demand.

Analysts expect China's demand recovery to add price support, with U.S. crude exports to China in March heading towards their highest in nearly two and a half years.

However, Saudi Arabia and Russia in a meeting on Thursday affirmed their commitment to OPEC+'s decision last October to cut production targets by two million barrels per day until the end of 2023.

An OPEC+ monitoring panel is due to meet on Apr. 3

In ocean freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index dipped on Friday on weaker demand for capesize and panamax vessels, although gained for a fourth consecutive week.

The overall index, indeed, lost 25 points, or about 1.6%, at 1,535.

The index, however, was up 7.8% for the week.

Notably, the capesize index fell 63 points, or about 3.2%, to 1,913, although gained 9.7% for the week.

Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, decreased $520 to $15,867.

The panamax index was down 23 points, or about 1.3%, at 1,723 — its biggest daily percentage fall since Feb. 16.

But the index gained 4.2% for the week.

Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, fell $207 to $15,509.

Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose 6 points to 1,318. It was up 9% for the week.

In equity markets, US stock indexes Friday posted moderate losses on concern that turmoil in the banking sector will push the global economy into recession.??

SVB Financial Group announced it would seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

First Republic Bank sank more than -32% after the bank announced it was suspending its dividend, despite Thursday’s proposal for $30 billion of aid from a consortium of the biggest U.S. banks.??

Among First Republic's peers, PacWest Bancorp fell 19.0% while Western Alliance slid 15.1%.

Those concerns have spread to Europe.

Credit Suisse, which received a $54 billion credit line from the Swiss National Bank Thursday, said it has sufficient liquidity.?

However, at least four big European banks are curbing trading with Credit Suisse Group AG or are considering doing so.??

Thus, the stock fell more than -7% Friday.??

About $600 billion of market value has evaporated from the 70 biggest U.S. and European banks since March 6.

In a sign of funding strains, Fed data showed that U.S. banks borrowed a record $152.85 billion from the discount window in the week of March 15.

Over the last two weeks, the S&P Banking index and the KBW Regional Banking index plunged by 4.6% and 5.4%, respectively, their largest two-week drops since March 2020.

In this context, global bond yields fell sharply Friday as concerns mount that the turmoil rocking the banking sector could tip the global economy into recession.??

Thus, the 10-year T-note yield tumbled -18.0 bp to 3.397%, and the 10-year German bund yield dropped -18.2 bp to 2.108%.??

T-note yields extended their declines after Friday’s economic news showed a decline in inflation expectations.?

The University of Michigan’s March U.S consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell -3.6 to 63.4, weaker than expectations of no change at 67.0.??

However, inflation expectations declined after the University of Michigan’s March U.S 1-year inflation expectations indicator fell -0.3 to a nearly 2-year low of 3.8%, and the 5-10 year inflation expectations indicator fell -0.1 to a 6-month low of 2.8%.?

Also, Feb U.S. manufacturing production unexpectedly rose +0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.3% m/m decline.

However, the drop in bond yields, provided some support for interest rate-sensitive technology stocks, limiting losses in the Nasdaq.?

All three indexes, indeed, ended the session deep in negative territory, with financial stocks down the most among the major sectors of the S&P 500.

Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 384.57 points, or 1.19%, to 31,861.98, the S&P 500 lost 43.64 points, or 1.10%, to 3,916.64 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 86.76 points, or 0.74%, to 11,630.51.

For the week, while the benchmark S&P 500 ended higher than last Friday's close, the Nasdaq and the Dow posted weekly declines.

Investors now turn their gaze to the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting.

At last glance, financial markets have priced in a 60.5% likelihood that the central bank will raise its key target rate by 25 basis points, and a 39.5% probability that it will let the current rate stand, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

In currency trading, the dollar fell on Friday,?with the dollar index , slid 0.60% at 103.74, as traders waited for the Fed's two-day policy meeting that is expected to end with a one-quarter percentage point hike in interest rates on March 22.

Notably, the euro rose 0.62% to $1.0677.

Sterling last traded at $1.21942, up 0.69%, while the dollar fell 0.38% against the Swiss franc.?

Earlier the week, the franc plunged the most against the dollar in one day since 2015, when the Swiss central bank loosened its currency peg.

The Japanese yen , which tends to benefit in times of extreme market volatility or stress, strengthened 1.49% versus the greenback to 131.77 per dollar.

The Australian dollar , which often outperforms when investors are feeling optimistic, rose 0.79% to $0.6708.

Going back to analyzing the other agricultural markets ...

From Canada, the Grain Statistics weekly report, showed producers' deliveries of common wheat at 459,2k mt for week 32 of this shipping season.

That was weaker from 565,3k mt posted prior week.?

Deliveries of durum wheat, were also weaker at 130,6k mt, compared with 170,2k mt showed in prior week.

Meantime, Canada exported 520,5k mt of common wheat in week 32.

That was up from 463,8k mt of a week earlier.

Durum wheat exports, were also stronger moving up from 68,2k mt to 76,1k mt.?

Total Commercial Stocks of common wheat stood at 2.913.9k mt.

That was slightly down from 3.035,5k mt posted in week 31.

Total durum commercial stocks, in contrast, were higher moving up from 673,2k mt a week earlier, to 700,1k mt.?

Cumulative exports for common wheat were at 12.337,2k mt.

That is compared 7.320,5k mt a year ago.

Durum cumulative exports reached 3.346,4k mt vs 1.541,6 a year ago.

In this context, cash bids for Canadian durum wheat fell week over week.?

Indeed, looking at the average regional price of C$456.15/mt as of March 17, that was C$0.49/mt weaker from the prior week.

Going inside the numbers of the week, as at March 13, 2023, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery West Coast were (Cdn$/mt), weren't available.?

The prior week prices reported were:

- for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% - $481.78 per tonne;?

- for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% - $475.45/t;

- for the N3 CWRS - $477.28/t.

- for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class) average street price in Rosetown was at C$459.30.

The export basis West Coast & Central SK, was not valued as Great Lakes are closed in this period of shipping season.

Meanwhile, the European Commission reported Canada's No. 1 CWAD at US$410/mt FOB St. Lawrence, as of March 15.

That was down $15/t from prior week, and in Canadian dollars meant C$562.89/mt, down C$24.63/t from prior week.

As at March 17, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class), average street price in REGIONAL ZONES was at C$456.15 per tonne, down C$0.49 from prior week.

(1USD=Cnd$1.3729 up from 1.3824 a week earlier).

From South America, beginning in April, Brazil will raise their biodiesel blending requirement to 12% from the current 10% blend rate.?

Brazilian soy harvesting is in progress and the country will export around 14 million tonnes in March.

However, in the first two months of 2023, soy exports via Paranagua fell 50% to around 900,000 tonnes, the port authority said, blaming the slump on excess rainfall and harvesting delays.

Currently, 56 ships await offshore to approach the port while 100 vessels are due to arrive by April 24 to load or unload various cargos, the authority said.

In a statement, the Parana government said time is of the essence "given the need to ship the largest soy crop in history, estimated at 20.89 million tonnes" in the state alone.

Meantime, Brazilian beef-packers are losing between $20 million and $25 million per working day after a self-imposed trade ban halted sales to China, agribusiness consultancy Datagro Pecuaria said.

The estimate is based on current beef export prices ranging between $4,800 and $5,000 per tonne.

Brazil voluntarily suspended beef sales to China on Feb. 23 after reporting a case of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE).

The lifting of the ban, however, hinges on Beijing's formal approval.

Last year, Brazil exported a total of 1.991 million tonnes of fresh beef, with about 62% going to China.

Brazil is China's biggest beef provider.

On a working daily basis, Brazil sent an estimated 4,700 tonnes of beef to China in 2022, Datagro data showed.?

In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered their soy production estimate by another 4 MMT and anticipates a 25 MMT Argentine soybean crop.?

BAGE lowered their corn production estimate by another 1.5 MMT taking their estimate of the?22/23 Argentine crop to 36 MMT.?

In this context, Argentina's soybean crushing plants are operating at the lowest capacity in history, the leader of the country's top grains processing chamber said on Wednesday.

In 2022, exports of soybean byproducts, Argentina's main source of foreign currency, totaled $18.519 billion.

According to the CIARA, oilseed and grain processing chamber, the industry faces a "crisis" with industrial capacity idleness approaching 70%.

Although harvesting for the 2022/23 season has not yet started, farmers have been reluctant to sell stored grains, fearing a meager harvest could lead them to run out of reserves.

In February, farmers sold 622,300 tonnes of soybeans to the milling sector, almost a third of the 1.7 million tonnes sold during the same month last year, according to data from the agriculture ministry.

Argentine producers still have in their stocks about 6 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2021/22 cycle.

In this context, as at March 16, 2023 - Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $354, up $4/t from prior week.

Argentina corn feed was up $5/t for the week, closing at $301.

Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was valued at $290, was up $8/t from prior week.

Argentina feed barley, was unchanged for the week to $320.

Argentina soybean was down $7 at $609.

Brazilian soybean was down $15, finishing the week at $533.

In Europe, grain prices rose this week, while rapeseed tumbled.

On Wednesday, Germany's association of farm cooperatives DRV, said the country 2023 wheat crop is expected to fall 2.3% on the year to 22.01 million tonnes.

The association forecast Germany's 2023 winter rapeseed crop is seen declining 1.1% from last summer’s crop to 4.23 million tonnes.

The main reasons for the expected fall include reduced planted area.

Notably, German farmers are estimated to have cut wheat sowings for harvesting this summer by 2.5% on the year to 2.89 million hectares, it said.

Meantime, German farmers are estimated to have raised winter rapeseed sowings for harvesting this summer by 7.5% on the year to 1.16 million hectares as they turned away from wheat.?

However, rapeseed crop yields are forecast to fall.

The winter barley crop, for animal feed, will fall 0.7% to 9.16 million tonnes, the association said.

The spring barley crop, often used for beer and malt production, will fall 11.6% to 1.74 million tonnes after sowings were cut.

The maize (corn) crop will be little changed on last year, up 0.2% at 3.84 million tonnes, it said.

Meantime, funds had reacted to turmoil surrounding Credit Suisse, buying ag commodities, especially wheat.

But after a lifeline given to the Swiss bank eased investor jitters, the attention shifted back towards grain fundamentals.

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday kept unchanged its monthly forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in the 2022/23 season and slightly reduced projected sales within the 27-member bloc.

Notably, the office pegged French soft wheat exports this season at 10.45 million tonnes, still 19% above last year.

However, soft wheat exports within the EU were expected at 6.51 million tonnes, down from 6.59 million forecast last month, mainly due to a lower competitiveness of French wheat compared to German wheat in the Netherlands.

Meantime, the office raised its projection for French soft wheat stocks at the end of the season next June to 2.51 million tonnes from the 2.46 million tonnes anticipated last month.

For barley, 2022/23 projected stocks were revised down to 1.47 million tonnes from 1.56 million tonnes in February after the office raised its non-EU export forecast by 200,000 tonnes to 3.0 million tonnes on the basis of strong demand from China since the start of the year.

FranceAgriMer cut its ending stock forecast for maize, covering the end of the season, to 2.07 million tonnes from the 2.23 million tonnes projected last month, mainly because of a cut to the delivered crop estimate.?

On Thursday, Strategie Grains cut its forecasts for European Union soft wheat production to 129.5 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season, down from a forecast of 129.7 million in February.

That would be 3.5% higher than 2022/23 production which it revised lower to 125.1 million tonnes.

Regarding soft wheat exports, Strategie Grains cut its outlook for the current season by 100,000 tonnes to 30.0 million due to a lower-than-expected flows from Bulgaria and Romania.

It reduced its export outlook for EU soft wheat exports in 2023/24 by 300,000 tonnes to 30.3 million tonnes.

For barley, Strategie Grains cut its forecast for the next EU harvest to 52.1 million from 52.3 million tonnes last month, 1.8% above 2022/23 production.

It left its maize 2023/24 production outlook unchanged at 63.4 million, up 24% on last year's drought-hit crop.

Thus, traders anticipated a wartime export corridor from Ukraine to be extended despite inconclusive talks so far.

Competitive offers of Black Sea wheat in an import tender being held by Egypt this week also curbed prices.

Ukrainian wheat was offered at the cheapest FOB price.

The Egyptian tender was again a reminder that Russian wheat is also available at low prices considerably below French levels, also with big volumes.

Traders said four ships have sailed from Germany for Morocco so far in March, loading together around 70,000 tonnes.?

Other sailings in March include one ship with 60,000 tonnes for Saudi Arabia.

However, Thursday’s action by the ECB to raise interest rates by 50 bp supported the euro, making European crops uncompetitve.

On Friday, FranceAgriMer reported that the country’s 2022/23 soft wheat crop quality has been stable this past week, with 95% rated in good-to-excellent condition through March 13.

Conditions for durum wheat, rose by 1% to 92% of the crop rated good or excellent.?

The country’s winter barley crop is also in fantastic shape, with 92% rated in good-to-excellent condition over the same period.

Meantime, French farmers had finished sowing spring barley.

In this context, May wheat on Paris-based Euronext, closed the week at 265.50 euros ($283.24 + $4.63 wow) a tonne on Friday, posting a €3.75/t weekly increase.

As for the other products, price for May's European Durum Wheat, was €1/t higher for the week, settling at €428/t.?

June corn price was up €3.5/t for the week, closing at 261.50 euros per ton.

Rapeseed May contract closed at €467.25/t, down €25.75/t for the week.

UK wheat feed, May 23 contract, closed at ￡209.5, down ￡5.5/t week on week.

Meantime, as of March 16, 2022, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and Feb - March delivery, were at $293/mt, up $6 from prior week.

French durum wheat - delivered La Pallice Spot - July 2022 basis, this week was valued at $458.72/mt, up $1.03 from prior week.

Corn, delivered Bordeaux Spot - July 2022 basis, was at $291.24 per tonne, up $5.98/t from past week.

Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2022 basis, was up $6 to $300.84/t.

Feed barley delivered Rouen was at 273.1$/t, up $5.94 per tonne.

Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2022 basis was at $314.71 per tonne, down $4.61/t from prior week.

Rapessed FOB Moselle - 2022 harvest was at 503.53$/ton, down $27.61 compared to prior week.

Standard sunseed FOB Bordeaux - 2022 harvest was down 84.10$ from prior week at $469.39 per tonne.

Per latest data from the European Commission, as at March 16, German standard 12% protein wheat for March delivery in Hamburg was offered for sale at $288.04/t, down $8.93/t from prior week, but with little purchase interest.

Baltic wheat, delivery first Vilnius, was at $297.64/t, up $0.25/t from prior week.

Spanish durum wheat Sevilla (Depo Silo), was valued at $394.72/t, down $4.43 from prior week.

Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), was valued at $438.45, up $1.51/t week on week.

(Eur/USD = 1.0668 vs last week 1.0644).

From Ukraine, according to APK-Inform Agency, last week the prices for Ukrainian grain were mainly declining under the pressure from total uncertainty regarding the extension of the “grain agreement”, which held back trading activity in the direction of deep-sea ports.?

At the same time, the number of grain offers in the direction of the Danube port declined slightly owing to the previous reduction of bid prices.?

Thus, the companies, which needed to urgently attract large batches of grain (mostly wheat) for planned ships, were forced to raise the prices.

Notably, bid prices for milling and feed wheat in the Danube ports mainly varied between 200-215 and 195-205 USD/t CPT-port, and for corn – 195-205 USD/t CPT-port.?

The demand for barley remained quite limited, and prices ranged from 190 to 195 USD/t.?

The slow pace of grain supply from farmers led to a gradual reduction of barley stocks of importers and some recovery of their demand.?

From Russia, Rosstat reports that Russia’s 2022-23 grain production is estimated at 157.7mmt (+30% on previous year), including wheat at 104.2mmt (+37%), barley at 23.4mmt (+30%), maize at 15.9mmt (+5%).?

Oilseed production at 29.1mmt (+17%), including sunflowerseed at 16.4mmt(+5%), soybeans at 6.0mmt (+26%) and rapeseed at 4.5mmt (+62%).?

Meantime, according to SovEcon, Russia is expected to export 4.2mmt of wheat in March.

This figure is double last year’s exports for the same month.?

Russia is increasing its exports, which dropped in February due to bad weather.?

Meantime, on Friday Russia’s agriculture ministry has set out its grain export taxes for March 22-28.

Notably, as of Mar 22, the export duty on wheat will decrease to 5,327.9 from 5,344.0 rubles per ton a week earlier.

For corn, in contrast, it will move higher from 2,615.3 rubles of a week earlier, to 2,646.9 rubles per ton.

Also for barley the duty will be higher for this period, increasing to 3,298.2 rubles from 3,016.6 rubles per ton a week earlier.

This new duty rates will be in effect through Mar 28, inclusive.

The duties were calculated based on indicative prices: $298.9 per ton for wheat ($300.1 a week earlier), $245.7 for barley ($241.1), $233.4 for corn ($233.5).

From the Middle Kingdom, a surge in African swine fever infections in China is set to reduce hog output later this year, farm managers and analysts said this week.

Chinese hog prices have hovered around 15 yuan ($2.18) per kilogramme since late last year, pressured by weak demand and excess supply.

Large losses last year encouraged many farmers to downsize herds in the winter, which has pushed up slaughter volumes.

Meantime, China is actively buying Brazil’s second corn, known as “safrinha,” even as farmers grapple with planting delays in the world’s third biggest producer of the cereal.

According to grain traders, China has bought in advance at least 1.5 million tonnes of Brazil’s safrinha crop, representing more than 10% of total forward sales of the staple product.?

The corn already bought will partly be exported from July and partly processed internally, the traders and one analyst said.

Meantime, China corn and wheat imports rose in Jan-Feb 2023.

Notably, as for corn China imported 5.33 million tonnes, +13.3%.

As for wheat, China imported 3.02 million tonnes, posting a +38.2% increase.

As for barley the country imported 960,000 -18.4%.

Sorghum imports stood at 330,000 -79.4%.

Pork imports were at 380,000 +35.8%.

China hopes the Black Sea grain deal can be implemented in a balanced and comprehensive manner, foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Thursday, adding that China would like to strengthen communication with all parties and enhance global food security.

On this wake, according to a commerce ministry spokeswoman, China is willing to communicate with Australia on issues of mutual concern and find solutions, especially for meat and barley.

On Thursday the agriculture ministry said, China will step up buying of domestic soybeans by state reserves to encourage farmers to keep planting the crop, , as Beijing continues to push for greater self-sufficiency in oilseed.

China will also increase subsidies for soybean and corn producers and guide regions in its northeastern breadbasket to to stabilise production.

Other policies include to increasing incentives for major grain-producing counties, focussing on raising yields, and to develop coordination between production and sales.

The measures are aimed at “sending a clear signal” to stabilize soybean production this year, and ensuring the reasonable income of soybean farmers, the statement said.?

From South East Asia, Malaysian palm oil prices fell for two consecutive weeks on Friday to the lowest in six weeks, tracking weakness in soyoils, although strong export data limited losses.

Notably, the benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 0.31% to 3,921 ringgit ($874.64) a tonne.

However, strong export data and probable low production due to recent flooding supported the contract.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-15 indeed rose between 55% and 72% from the same period in February, as shipments to India jumped ahead of the Muslim festival of Eid, according to cargo surveyors data.

Top producer Indonesia said it will enforce domestic market obligation to ensure palm oil producers sell 450,000 tonnes of cheap cooking oil at home in March to secure supply ahead of Islamic festivities, after missing the target in February, the country’s trade minister said earlier this week.

However, palm oil may retest a support of 3,892 ringgit per tonne, a break below which could trigger a fall into a range of 3,810-3,856 ringgit, analysts said.?

In other news, the Indonesian government has approved the genetically modified wheat variety developed by Bioceres for human consumption.

From Australia,?prices for feedgrain have firmed in the past week across eastern Australia on some short covering of white grain, and as the northern freight market remains firmly focused on getting sorghum to port.

Limited selling from growers of warehoused and on-farm wheat and barley has also allowed prices to drift higher as they turn their attention to planting oats and dual-purpose canola to kick off their winter-crop seeding programs.

Export demand for wheat remains buoyant, and feedlots are booking barley in reasonable amounts, mostly on offer from the trade.

In this context, indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne for prompt crops during the week were:

Barley Downs: $415, up $7 from Mar 9;

SFW wheat Downs: $415, up $5 from Mar 9;

Sorghum Downs: $430, up $5 from Mar 9;

Barley Melbourne: $370, up $5 from Mar 9;

ASW wheat Melbourne: $425, up $5 from Mar 9;

SFW wheat Melbourne: $420, up $2 from Mar 9.

(AUD/USD=> US$0.6698 vs US$0.6578 a week earlier).

On the international trade scene, per latest data from the International Grains Council (IGC), global grains production is forecast to rise in the 2023/24 season but not enough to prevent a drawdown in stocks.

The inter-governmental body, issuing its first full set of projections for 2023/24, put grains production at 2.283 billion tonnes, up from 2.250 billion in the prior season.

Grains consumption was expected to climb to 2.288 billion from 2.261 billion, leading to a small decline in carryover stocks to 580 million tonnes from 586 million.

Notably, the IGC forecast global corn production would rise to 1.202 billion tonnes in the 2023/24 season from 1.150 billion in the prior season.

An expected rise in corn production in the United States (377.7 million tonnes from 348.8 million), Argentina (61.0 million from 46.0 million) and the European Union (64.9 million from 52.1 million) more than offset an anticipated further decline in Ukraine (21.0 million from 27.0 million).

Global corn consumption was seen at 1.198 billion tonnes in 2023/24 leading to a small rise in carryover stocks to 261 million tonnes from 256 million.

The IGC saw global wheat production falling to 787 million tonnes from 801 million in the prior season.

The decline in forecast wheat production was largely driven by diminished prospects in the Black Sea region, with Russia’s crop seen falling to 82.8 million tonnes from 95.4 million and Ukraine’s to 20.2 million tonnes from 25.2 million.

Larger crops were expected in the United States (51.4 million vs 44.9 million) and Argentina (19.0 million vs 12.0 million).

Global wheat consumption was seen at 794 million tonnes in 2023/24, leading to a fall in carryover stocks to 279 million tonnes from 286 million.

Watching next week’s market …

Next Monday, we start off with the weekly Export Inspections report in the afternoon.?

Tuesday and Wednesday will be watched closely, as the FOMC meeting will be taking place and "to hike or not to hike" is the question.

On Wednesday, we also will have the weekly EIA ethanol production and stocks report.?

On Thursday we will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report.?

Monthly USDA Cold Storage data will also be released that afternoon.

Friday marks the expiration April serial grain options.

That’s all, thank you.

We wish you a nice day and a good weekend.

?Author:?Sandro F. Puglisi

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