GRAIN & PRICES WEEKLY REPORT
SANDRO FILIPPO PUGLISI
Ag commodities' markets scholar (wheat, corn, oilseeds); Energy prices & stock indexes' analyst; Fintech, NFTs, DeFi, Tokenization, Digital trade's enthusiast.
Good morning Farmer Family ...
US farm markets finished the week on a high note, as corn, soybeans and wheat all making moderate inroads in Friday’s session.
Friday's US jobs report showed more than 200,000 jobs created in September, and the unemployment rate was only 3.5%.??
That wasn't seen good by investors, as low unemployment tends to put upward inflationary pressure on wages, while the Fed must to keep inflation down.?
Thus, the dollar index soared, reversing from the early week sell off.?
The heavy tech stocks, were hammered.?
Oil prices which usually trades opposite the dollar rose, as OPEC+ cut production.?
Meantime, commodities ag prices, which typically don’t benefit from a strong dollar, rose as higher crude/gasoline/diesel is seen good for ethanol and biodiesel use.??
Thus, corn prices benefited from a round of technical buying that lifted prices 1.15% higher.
Soybean prices tacked on moderate gains of around 0.7% after sliding to the lowest level since late July on Thursday.?
Soymeal prices were around 1.9% higher on the board.?
Soybean oil closed the last trade day of the week 0.88% higher.
The wheat complex followed the broad set of other commodities higher, although traders remained leery of a very strong U.S. Dollar,?which could hinder some future sales.?
Thus, Chicago SRW wheat price picked up just 0.14%, Kansas City HRW closed 0.39% firmer, and MGEX spring wheat prices gained a 0.57% on the day.
For the week, corn prices managed to continue the slow ascension higher, as December pulled out a 0.84% gain from Friday to Friday.
Soybeans got help from the stronger Friday session, as November eked out just a 0.16% gain week on week.?
Soy oil was up a strong 8.19% for the week, thanks crude oil strength.
Meal prices, in contrast, posted a 0.57% weekly drops.?
The wheat complex, was the biggest weak spot for commodities this week.
Chicago SRW, indeed, was down 4.48%, giving back all of prior week’s gain.?
Kansas City HRW wasn’t as bad, dropping 2.29% on the week.?
Minneapolis spring wheat was the firmest, losing just 1.43% since prior Friday.?
Going inside the numbers, for the week corn prices closed up by $0.057 at $6.83/bu.
Soybean prices finished the week $0.022 higher at 13.67/bu.
Soymeal lost $2.3/smt, closing at $400.70 smt.
Soy oil jumped by $5.04, to close at $66.60.
CBOT soft red winter (SRW) prices tumbled $0.413 to close at $8.80/bu.
KCBT hard red winter (HRW) prices shedded $0.227, ending at $9.69/bu.
MGE hard red spring (HRS) prices were $0.140 weaker to close at $9.68/bu.
After sessions close, Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed the managed money net long grew by 5,874 contracts to 243,728.?
That came via net new buying.?
On the commercial side, commercial short hedges increased by 31,771 contracts and commercial long hedges increased by 24,351 contracts.?
That was a net 7.4k contract stronger net short of 440,762 contracts.
As for soybean, the report showed long liquidation from specs through the week that ended 10/4.?
The 15,520 fewer contracts (14%) left the group 77,488 contracts net long – the smallest said position since December 2021.?
Commercial soybean hedgers closed 2.1k shorts and added 7.4k longs for a 9.5k contract weaker net short of 106,835 contracts.?
In soymeal, the spec traders were 13,845 contracts less net long to 79,700.?
Managed money firms held a 4,337 contract stronger net long in soybean oil through the week, at 62,754 contracts as of 10/4.?
As for wheat, CFTC reported managed money firms were 2,178 contracts less net short in CBOT wheat through the week that ended 10/4.?
More shorts were exited than longs, and the group was 12,219 contracts net short on 11,688 contracts (9.7%) less OI.?
In KC wheat they added to their net long for the 4th consecutive week, raising it 1,726 contracts to 25,631 contracts by October 4.
In MPLS wheat the funds were 448 contracts less net long at 3,788 contracts.?
This week, basis for wheat was up in both the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW).?
Basis in the Gulf was driven primarily by increased barge freight in the Mississippi River.?
The weekly Grain Transportation Report (GTR) showed that rail efficiency has improved over the last two weeks, with speeds for grain trains improving and more grain carloads moved.?
However, the report noted that rail performance still lags behind last year.?
The dollar also remains strong, stunting U.S. wheat's competitiveness in the international market.?
At the same time, tighter export capacity this time of year due to peak corn and soybean export programs adds to the overall basis cost.?
Weekly Crop Progress data showed, as of Oct. 2, 96% of corn has reached the dented stage, slightly below the five-year average of 97%.
Seventy-five percent of corn was mature, on track with the five-year average.
Twenty percent has been harvested, behind the five-year average of 22%.?
Corn crop condition was rated 52% good/excellent, reflecting no changes for the third week in a row.
As for soybean, USDA’s report noted 81% of soybeans are dropping leaves, ahead of the five-year average of 79%.?
Just 22% of soybeans have been harvested.?
The five-year average for this time is 25%.?
Soybean crop condition was rated 55% good/excellent, reflecting no change for the third week in a row.
As for wheat, forty percent of winter wheat was planted, behind the five-year average of 44%.?
Fifteen percent of winter wheat has emerged, behind the five-year average of 17%.?
Monthly Census data showed that US August corn exports were at 3.3 MMT (129.84 mbu).?
That was down just 4.21% from August 2021.?
As for soybean, the report indicated 3.32 MMT (121.9 mbu) of soybeans were shipped in August, more than double 2021.?
As for wheat the monthly release of Census trade data showed 2.51 MMT (92.34 mbu) of wheat was exported in August.?
That was a steep increase from July but was still a 4-year low for the month.?
USDA’s Grain Crushing report tallied 432.3 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in August, up 3.71% vs. last year.?
The monthly Fats & Oils report indicated 175.05 mbu of beans were crushed in August, up 4.04% from last year.?
Meantime, weekly ethanol data from the EIA indicated production up 34,000 barrels per day in the week of 9/30 to 889,000 bpd.?
Stocks dropped a sharp 1.006 million barrels in in that week to 21.685 million barrels.?
Weekly Export Sales report showed a disappointing 227,000 MT of corn booked for 22/23 shipment.?
That took the total export commitments to just 23% of the USDA projection, compared to the 34% average pace for a month into the MY.?
As for soybean, data showed bookings slowing to 777,100 MT in the week that ended on 9/29.?
That took total commitments for US bean exports to 27.51 MMT, or 48% of the USDA projected total, 2% faster than the 5-year average.?
As for wheat, data is not any better, as 229,400 MT of wheat was booked in the week ending 9/29.?
That helped the total export commitments to limp along to 10.996 MMT for wheat and products, which is 49% of the USDA forecast vs. the 56% average buying pace.?
In this context, as at October 6, 2022, FOB prices saw US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) valued at $437/mt (up $1/mt from last week).
US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was valued at $396/mt (down $1/mt from last week).
Northern Durum offers from the Great Lakes for November 2022 delivery was valued at $10.88/bu, down 27 c/bu week on week ($400.00/MT -$10).
As for corn, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $337/mt (up $15/mt from last week).
As for soybean, US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $572/mt (down $18 from last week).
The weekly National Ethanol Report from USDA had spot prices as 13-18 cents/gal higher through the week regionally, to $2.34 - $2.55/gal regionally.?
DDGS prices ranged $215 - $350/ton regionally which were $15 lower to $20 higher.?
In the spot corn oil markets, USDA showed prices were mostly 1-3 cents lower from 69c – 75c/lb regionally.?
B100 biodiesel prices from USDA’s weekly update averaged $6.38/gal in MN, UNCH from last week.?
In energy markets, crude oil had its biggest weekly gain since March.?
Benchmark U.S. crude jumped 4.7% to settle at $92.64 per barrel Friday.?
Brent crude, the international standard, rose 3.7% to settle at $97.92.
As we said, prices have shot higher because big oil-producing countries have pledged to cut production in order to keep prices up.?
Oil rallied for the fifth day in a row even as the dollar.
A strong greenback can pressure oil demand, making dollar-denominated crude more expensive for other currency holders.
Also, the price jump pushed both benchmarks into technically overbought territory for the first time since August for Brent and June for WTI.
Both contracts posted their second straight weekly gains, and their biggest weekly percentage gains since March this week, with Brent was up about 11% and WTI 17% higher.
U.S. heating oil futures jumped 19% this week to their highest close since June, boosting the heating oil crack spread - a measure of refining profit margins - to its highest close on record, according to Refinitiv data going back to December 2009.
The OPEC+ cut comes ahead of a European Union embargo on Russian oil and will squeeze supply in an already tight market.
Meantime, the U.S. oil rig count, an early indicator of future production, fell by two this week to 602, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co, as high inflation forces producers to spend more money to secure workers and equipment.
On the other hand, in Europe, divisions between EU leaders over capping gas prices and national rescue packages resurfaced, with Poland accusing Germany of "selfishness" in its response to a winter energy crunch caused by Russia's war in Ukraine.
In ocean freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index fell on Friday pressured by a dip in the capesize segment, but posted a weekly rise powered by overall gains across all vessel segments.
The overall index, indeed, fell 31 points, or about 1.6%, to 1,961.
It posted a weekly gain of 11.4%, gaining for five out of the last six weeks.
Particularly, the capesize index lost 110 points, or about 4.4%, at 2,396, but notched up a 23% weekly gain.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, were down $912 to $19,874.
The panamax index added three points to rise to 2,235, posting a fifth straight weekly gain of 7.3%.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, were up $32 to $20,116.
The supramax index (.BSIS) rose 16 points to 1,706.
In equity markets, Wall Street fell sharply on Friday following the solid jobs report for September.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 630.15 points, or 2.11%, at 29,296.79, the S&P 500 lost 104.86 points, or 2.80%, to 3,639.66 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 420.91 points, or 3.8%, to 10,652.41.
The jobs data, indeed, cemented another jumbo-sized 75 basis-point rate hike in November.
Consequentially, all 11 major S&P 500 sectors declined, with technology falling the most, down 4.14%.
The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index fell 6.06% after a revenue warning from Advanced Micro Devices signaled a chip slump could be worse than expected.?
The index posted its biggest single-day percentage decline in more than three weeks.
AMD shares fell 13.9% as the company's third-quarter revenue estimates were about $1 billion lower than previously forecast.?
It was the largest declining stock on the Nasdaq 100.?
FedEx Corp slid 0.5% as the division that handles most e-commerce deliveries expects to lower volume forecasts because its customers plan to ship fewer holiday packages.
However, despite Friday's nosedive, a hefty two-day rally earlier in the week pushed the S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq to post their first week of gains after three straight weeks of losses.
For the week, indeed, the S&P 500 rose 1.51%, the Dow added 1.99% and the Nasdaq gained 0.73%.
The rise for crude helped stocks of oil-related companies to be among Wall Street's very few to rise Friday.?
Oilfield services provider Halliburton, indeed, climbed 2%.
That should keep the pressure up on inflation, which is still near a four-decade high but hopefully moderating.
Next week's consumer price index will provide a key snapshot of where inflation stands.
In currency trading, U.S. dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies was last up 0.6% and hit its highest in a week.?
The index is up about 18% for the year so far.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies on Friday reversing early losses against the Japanese yen and was last up 0.2% at 145.42 yen.?
The euro fell against the dollar, extending losses, and was last down 0.6% at $0.9735.
Sterling was down 0.9% at $1.1060, having fallen 1.4% overnight.?
The dollar also gained against China's offshore yuan Friday, and was last up 0.7% at 7.1313.
Going back to analyzing the other agricultural markets, in Canada, Canadian farmers are expected to harvest their third biggest wheat crop in 2022, rebounding after last year's drought cut yields.?
However, there are concerns about the ability of Canadian railroads to manage the logistics of moving wheat to export elevators.?
Shippers are worried that there are not enough rail cars to move wheat currently.?
"CP is working diligently with grain customers," said a spokeswoman for Canadian Pacific.?
She noted that CP increased rail capacity by 10% compared to a week earlier.
Producers' deliveries of common wheat in week 9 of the shipping season, were at 459,8k mt.
That was weaker from 547.1k posted a week erlier.
Deliveries of durum wheat increased to 134.5k mt down from 97.0k mt a week earlier.
Meantime, Canada exported 380.4k mt of common wheat in week 9 of the shipping season.
That was weaker from 627.8k mt a week earlier.
Durum wheat exports, in contrast, were sharply higher at 75.9k mt, up from 27.7k mt a week earlier.?
Consequentially, total Commercial Stocks of common wheat stood at 3.300,7k mt, slightly up from 3.245,9k mt a week earlier.
As for durum, total commercial stocks were at 759,8k mt, up from 675,5k mt a prior week.?
In this context, as at October 03, 2022, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery West Coast were (Cdn$/mt):?
- for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% - $541.64 per tonne, up C$19.15/t from prior week;?
- for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% - $533.62/t, up C$20.24 wow;
- for the N3 CWRS - $566.22/t, up C$25.5 from prior week.
As at October 03, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class) average street price were at C$429.54, rising by C$16.17 week on week.
The export basis West Coast & Central SK, in contrast, moved down from C$151.14 to 129.66 a tonne.
Thus, delivered FOB price Great Lakes was posted at C$559.2.
That represent a C$5.31/t decline from prior week.
Per latest data from European Commission, as at October 05, 2022, Durum wheat - FOB CA St Lawrence (CWAD) was offerd at C$592.21/t, up C$11.35/t week on week.
As at October 07, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class), average street price in REGIONAL ZONES were at C$454.99 per tonne, up C$22.69 from prior week.
(1USD=Cnd$1.3738, up from 1.3830 a week earlier).
From South America, as at October 6, 2022 - Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $420, up $10/t from prior week.
Argentina corn feed was up $11/t for the week, closing at $307.
Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was valued at $294, was up $10/t from prior week.
Argentina feed barley, was unchanged for the week to $310.
Argentina soybean was down $1 at $565.
Brazilian soybean was down $11, finishing the week at $582.
The Argentinian General Administration of Ports (AGP) will start charging a toll along the Paraguay-Parana waterway, the Argentine Ministry of Transport announced.?
The waterway is used by 20,000 barges annually, including international cargo, and is responsible for moving 80% of Argentina's exports, reported AgriCensus.
The government said some areas could charge $1.47/MT.?
The government said the charge would allow investments in improved navigation signaling and dredging.
Brazil's 2022/2023 total corn crop could reach 126.941 million tonnes, up 12.5% from 112.805 million tonnes in the previous cycle, the agricultural agency CONAB said.
Brazilian farmers are expected to plant 14.6% more first-crop corn and 12.4% more second-crop corn in 2022/2023, CONAB said.
Brazil's 2022/2023 soybean crop could reach 152.352 million tonnes, up 21.3% from 125.550 million tonnes produced in the previous cycle, CONAB also said.
Brazil's 2022/2023 soybean area is expected to grow 3.4% to 42.892 million hectares, CONAB said.
Meantime, Brazil grain exporters’ association ANEC sees October corn exports at 4.2Mt, up from 1.9Mt last year, also noting exports could reach 5.5Mt.?
Soybean exports are seen at 3.1Mt, up from just under 3Mt in October 2021.?
In Europe, December wheat prices on Euronext closed the week at 348 euros a tonne, down €8.75/t for the week.?
November corn price, was down €4.5/t for the week, closing at 336.5 euros per ton.
Rapeseed Nov contract closed at €629.5/t, down €3.5/t for the week.
Nov-22 UK wheat feed contract, closed at ￡282.5/t, down ￡7/t week on week.
Meantime, as of October 6, 2022, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and Oct delivery, were at $347/mt, down $2 from prior week.
German wheat, Deposilo Hamburg, was valued at $335.22/t, up $13.76 from prior week.
Baltic wheat, delivery first Vilnius, was quoted $313.79, down $1.8 from prior week.
Spanish durum wheat Sevilla (Depo Silo), this week was valued at $482.37/t, past week was n.q..
French durum wheat - delivered La Pallice Spot - July 2022 basis, this week was valued at $453.14/mt, up $21.9 from prior week.
French durum wheat - FOB Port la Nouvelle, this week was n.q., past week was valued at $441/mt.
Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), was valued $462.89/t, up $4.2 from prior week.
Corn, delivered Bordeaux Spot - July 2022 basis, was at $341.07 per tonne, down $0.98/t from past week.
Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2022 basis, was down $0.89 to $326.46/t.
Feed barley delivered Rouen was at 296.25$/t, down $7.58 per tonne.
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2022 basis was at $350.82 per tonne, up $7.78/t from prior week.
Rapessed FOB Moselle - 2022 harvest was at 601.27$/ton, up $0.47 compared to prior week.
Standard sunseed FOB Bordeaux - 2022 harvest was down 3.75$ from prior week at $652.92 per tonne.
(Eur/USD = 0.9745 vs last week 0.9801).
French farm office FranceAgriMer reported that 67% of the country’s corn harvest is now complete, up from 51% a week ago and well ahead of 2021’s pace of 6%.?
The 2022 harvest is trending 28 days ahead of last year’s pace and 18 days ahead of the prior five-year average after suffering severe drought and heat throughout the summer and early fall.?
Quality ratings were steady from a week ago, with 41% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through October 3.
Meantime, French wheat planting reached 3% of expected area through 10/3.?
From Ukraine, analysis of data provided by Ukraine's agriculture ministry shows the pace of winter wheat planting is three times slower than last year.?
As of October 3, farmers have planted 1.1 million hectares, 27% of the expected winter wheat area.?
Last year farmers had planted 3.1 million hectares by this time.?
Local officials said rain across the area and a lack of funds were to blame for the slower planting pace.?
Barva Invest, a consultancy, estimated that farmers could plant 3.4 million hectares for harvest in 2023.?
The CEO of IMC Integrated Agricultural Business said that Ukraine can produce enough wheat in 2023 for its domestic use, "but not everything will be so rosy with exports."
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and his team are working to expand and extend for a year the U.N.-brokered deal allowing Ukrainian Black Sea grain exports, which could expire in late November.
Meantime, a fifth vessel chartered by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has left Ukraine's Black Sea port of Chornomorsk and will deliver 30,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat to Ethiopia, Ukraine's infrastructure ministry said on Friday.?
In Russia, as of October 12, the export duty on wheat will decrease to 1,926.8 from 2,119.0 rubles per ton a week earlier.
The duty on barley, also will decrease to 1,632.0 rubles from 1,849.8 rubles per ton a week earlier.
Also for corn it will down to 3,114.1 rubles from 3,295.6 rubles a week earlier.
This new duty rates will be in effect through October 18, inclusive.
The duties were calculated based on indicative prices: $307.7 per ton for wheat ($308.1 a week earlier), $280.9 for barley ($282.3), $317.6 for corn ($317.6).
From Australia, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia expects wheat output to reach 12.1 MMT from the West, up from their prior estimate of 10.75 MMT.?
Perfect conditions for grain fill have, indeed, pushed tonnage estimates for the WA grain harvest to the near record levels.
However, prices were firm on delayed harvest.
Feedgrains have traded steady to higher in the past week as the impact of rain and cool weather further delays the impending start of harvest and makes accessing grain difficult at many sites.
Overhanging the market is the widening spread for protein wheat over lower grades.
These are expected to proliferate this year as successive rains lower prospects of anything above APW in most districts unless the weather turns hot and dry, and quickly.
With Australia now in its new marketing year, trade sources report export sales are slow, as volume of APW and above is uncertain, and SFW and ASW grades are expected to come under pressure from sheer volume.
In this context, indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne for old crops past week were:
Barley Downs: $378, up $8 from Sep 30;
SFW wheat Downs: $400, up $25 from Sep 30;
Sorghum Downs: $370, up $5 from Sep 30;
Barley Melbourne: $368, unchanged from Sep 30;
ASW wheat Melbourne: $420, unchanged from Sep 30.
SFW wheat Melbourne: $400, unchanged from Sep 30.
As for new crops, past week indicative prices were:
Barley Downs: $375, up $5 from Sep 30;
SFW wheat Downs: $395, up $3 from Sep 30;
Sorghum Downs: $345, unchanged from Sep 30;
Barley Melbourne: $368, unchanged from Sep 30;
ASW wheat Melbourne: $440 unchanged from Sep 30;
SFW wheat Melbourne: $400, unchanged from Sep 30.
(AUD/USD=> US$0.6370 vs. US$0.6403 prior week).
On the international trade scene, Algeria is thought to have purchased as much as 250.000t of durum wheat from optional origins in a tender that closed on Friday.?
At least some of the total is expected to be sourced from Canada, although additional details were not immediately available.?
The grain is for shipment in October and November.
Price was below the recent Tunisian trade.
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased an estimated 60,000 tonnes of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender on Friday.
It was purchased at an estimated $531.92 a tonne c&f including a surcharge for additional port unloadings.?
Seller was believed to be trading house CJ International.
The soymeal was sought for arrival in South Korea around Feb. 20, 2023.?
Shipment was sought between Dec. 24 and Jan. 12 if sourced from South America.
Watching next week's market, the week starts off with a quiet session on Monday session.
The US government offices are closed for Columbus Day.?
The markets however, will be open, as it is first notice day for October live cattle futures.?
On Tuesday, the USDA will release their normal Monday reports, with the Export Inspections report in the afternoon and Crop Progress report out after the session close.?
Wednesday will be busy for grain traders, with the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports.?
Thursday will show the delayed release of the EIA report publishing new ethanol production and stocks data.?
Friday rounds out the week with the Export Sales report in the afternoon.?
It is also the last trading day for October lean hog futures and options, as well as October soybean meal and oil.
Main News
The FAO, indeed, said on Friday that its price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 136.3 points last month versus a revised 137.9 for August.
The August figure was previously put at 138.0.
The index has fallen from a record of 159.7 in March.?
The September reading was, however, 5.5% higher than a year earlier.
The latest drop was driven by a 6.6% month-on-month fall in vegetable oil prices, with increased supplies and lower crude oil prices contributing to the decline.
Sugar, dairy and meat prices all slipped by less than one percentage point, relieving inflationary pressures.
By contrast, FAO's cereal price index rose 1.5% month-on-month in September, with wheat prices climbing 2.2%.
Rice prices rose 2.2%.
In separate cereal supply and demand estimates, FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2022 to 2.768 billion tonnes from a previous 2.774 billion tonnes.
That is 1.7% below the estimated output for 2021.
World cereal use in 2022/23 is expected to surpass production at 2.784 million tonnes, leading to a projected 1.6% fall in global stocks compared with 2021/22 to 848 million tonnes.
That would represent a stocks-to-use ratio of 29.7%, down from 31.0% in 2021/22 but still relatively high historically, FAO said.
The full range of estimates is between a 2.4 bpa cut and a 1.4 bpa boost.?
As for production, the average trade guess is to see 13.903 bbu, between 13.766 and 14.056 bbu. 22/22 carryout is expected to drop 93 mbu on average, reflecting the tighter than expected carry-in and the lower output.?
As for soybean, survey respondents expect USDA to raise soybean yields by 0.1 bpa on average.?
The full range of published numbers is between 49.8 bpa and 51.3 bpa.?
Traders have the production figured between 70 mbu lower and 85 mbu above USDA’s September figure with a 4.38 bbu average trade guess.?
Soybean carryout is expected to rise 45 mbu to 244.8 on average, mostly reflecting the higher than expected carry-in from the Grain Stocks report.?
As for wheat, analysts expect USDA to cut the 22/23 wheat carry-out by 47.5 mbu to 562.?
That comes via wide expectations from 477 on the low end to 637 on the high end.?
Global wheat stocks have a tighter 8 MMT expected range, from 262.6 MMT to 270 MMT, with the average of estimates for a 700k MT cut to 267.9.?
That's all, thank you.
We wish you a good day and a good weekend.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi??
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