GRAIN & PRICES WEEKLY REPORT

US farm markets closed mixed but mostly lower at the end of this week.

Corn prices peaked on Tuesday, and then resisted sell pressure the rest of the week.?

Thus, they settled 0.4% higher for the week.??

Soybeans May prices were still 2% higher for the?week, despite shedding more than 32 cents on Friday.?

Soymeal was the drag on the market for a second consecutive week, down 0.6% during the week.?

All of the loss came on Friday.?

Soy oil rose a huge 5.5% for the week, as Indonesia halted palm oil exports for an indefinite period.?

The wheat complex, finished the end week session mixed.??

Chicago wheat was down 2.8%.

KC HRW lost 1%.

MPLS had still trying to buy or hold acreage against rising corn and soybeans, thus, May MGE was up 1.4% for the week.

Going inside the numbers, CBOT corn prices, closed up $0.027 at $7.93/bu.?

CBOT soybean prices finished the week $0.337 higher at $17.16/bu.

Soymeal fell by $2.6/smt for the week at $458.8 smt.

Soy oil gained $4.35 cents, to close at $83.26.

May CBOT soft red winter (SRW) prices shedded by $0.310 to close at $10.66/bu.?

May KCBT hard red winter (HRW) prices fell $0.112 ending at $11.43/bu.

May MGE hard red spring (HRS) prices gained $0.157 to close at $11.60/bu.

Meantime, as of April 21, 2022, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $358/mt (up $2/mt from last week).

US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $690/mt (up $21/mt from last week).

As for wheat, US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) was valued at $501/mt (down $13/mt from last week).

US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was at $437/mt (down $16/mt from last week).

Per latest data released in USDA’s National Ethanol report, corn oil prices were up this week, as renged between 80 SD and 82 NB cents/lb.?

That compares to 77.25 and 79.50 cents seen regionally last week.

DDGS FOB prices were weaker, with NOLA quotes from $320 LW to $338, while PNW was $30 higer to $410/ton.?

Past week DDGS FOB export quotes were $332 - $365/ton in NOLA and $380 in the PNW.?

Ethanol cash prices were between $2.71 SD to $2.89/gal EC.?

That compare to prior week when they ranged between $2.53 IO to $2.71/gal EC.

Meanwhile gasoline futures ended the week at $3.2820, that was down from $3.3999/gal posted last week.

USDA’s weekly biofuels report showed B100 prices averaged $7.37, up from $6.51/gal past week's.?

USDA’s weekly Crush report showed the estimated processing value of soybeans was $21.18/bu on $17.40 cash beans.?

That compared to $20.75/bu reported prior week on $16.96 beans.

In this context, corn basis bids firmed a penny higher at an Illinois river terminal while falling 4 to 6 cents at two other Midwestern locations and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.

Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed, tilting 2 cents lower at two Midwestern locations while falling 3 to 5 cents lower at two other locations.

As for wheat, basis this week was mixed in both the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW).?

In the Gulf, HRS and SRW basis was flat while HRW basis was slightly lower.?

In the PNW, soft white prices were up while all other wheat classes were down.?

Logistics, however, continue to be the driving force behind a firm basis.

In energy markets, oil slipped on Friday, posting a weekly loss of nearly 5%, on the prospect of weaker global growth, higher interest rates and COVID-19 lockdowns in China hurting demand.

The International Monetary Fund this week, indeed, cut its global economic growth forecast for 2022 and could further downgrade it if Western countries expand their sanctions against Russia.

The German government will cut its growth forecast for 2022 to 2.2% from 3.6%.

European refiners processed 9.04 million bpd of crude in March, down 4% from a month earlier and 4.8% higher than a year earlier, Euroilstock data showed.

Chinese demand for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel in April is expected to slide 20% from a year earlier, Bloomberg reported.

On the supply side, the Russia-Kazakh Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) is expected to resume full exports from April 22 after almost 30 days of disruptions, sources said.

The U.S. oil rig count rose by one to 549 this week, the highest number since April 2020, according to a Baker Hughes Co report.

U.S. oil refiners are expected to have about 1.08 million bpd of capacity offline for the week ending April 22, increasing available refining capacity by 47,000 bpd, research company IIR Energy said.

In this context, Brent crude settled down $1.68, or 1.6%, at $106.65 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.72, or 1.7%, to $102.07.

However, if Western countries expand their sanctions against Russia energy prices rise further, an official of the International Monetary Fund, said.

Particularly, supply could be squeezed further if the EU imposes an embargo on Russian oil.?

The Netherlands said it plans to stop using Russian fossil fuels by the end of this year.

Also, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said a half-percentage-point increase in U.S. interest rates "will be on the table" at the next Fed policy meeting in May, pushing the dollar to more than a two-year high.?

A stronger greenback makes oil and other commodities more expensive for those holding other currencies.

Supply tightness is still on the table as Libya loses 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) of output due to disruptions.?

In freight markets, the Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose about 3% to 2,307 on Friday, the highest since April 4th, extending gains for the third straight session.?

The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, jumped 12.8% to 1,845 points, a peak since April 1st; and the supramax index increased 32 points to 2,678 points.?

Meanwhile, the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, fell 1.4% to 3,004 points.?

The Baltic Exchange Dry Index added 8% this week, the second consecutive weekly gain.

Particularly, after several weeks of relatively flat price movement, the Capesize 5TC market has started to show a little positive sentiment with levels pushed to $15,299.?

Fixture activity on the whole has not been very eventful, yet the Pacific C5 West Australia to Qingdao route was up +0.773 on Friday to $10.741 and has steadily improved over the week.?

Meanwhile, the cargo to vessel ratio in the Atlantic is said to have tightened - especially for prompt positions.?

The transatlantic C8 has risen +2250 week on week, to settle now at $11,625.?

Further south in the Atlantic from Brazil, the voyage route C3 Brazil to China currently prices at $26.04 as activity is ticking over although is largely underwhelming.?

The Capesize market is definitely improving in sentiment, which is a welcome sight for many.?

However, with the dark shadow of the lockdown situation in Shanghai hanging over all the shipping markets, the Capesize main destination market is unable to fire on all cylinders placing somewhat of a cap on trade at this time.

In Panamax segment, it was a limited week of trading due to Easter holidays in many regions.?

A gradual decline across all rates in the Atlantic this week was caused by minimal fresh demand with wide disparity between the bid/offer spread throughout the week.?

Those owners forced to fix prior to the weekend reluctantly reduced offers with Charterers seemingly holding firm.?

Typically, the transatlantic round trips hovered around the $27,000 mark with several deals concluded at or around this level.?

Asia similarly returned a lethargic week overall, with something of a split two-tier market.?

The Southern region was largely under pressure, with many smaller/overage ships discounting rates for the limited Indonesia coal trips.?

Further North, there were glimpses of support found ex NoPac as well as the coal trips ex Australia to India, highlighted by an 82,000-dwt delivery China agreeing a rate of $25,000 for a NoPac trip and a 74,000-dwt delivery China fixing $15,500 for a trip via Indonesia redelivery Vietnam.

In Ultramax/Supramax segment, with many countries enjoying Easter celebrations, the information flow was rather slow.?

However, key areas saw increased positive sentiment with demand returning from the US Gulf and Asia.?

Period cover was sought and an Ultramax open China was fixed for four to six months trading at around $34,000.?

In the Atlantic, the main focus was from the US Gulf which saw increased fresh enquiry.?

A 63,000-dwt fixed Delivery SW Pass trip to Egypt at $45,000.?

Elsewhere, a 55,000-dwt open West Africa was fixed via South Africa redelivery China at $28,750.?

Stronger demand in Asia helped rates.?

A 61,000-dwt fixed delivery Kosichang trip via Indonesia redelivery Cambodia at $32,000.?

Brokers said further north there had been an increased level of NoPac business.?

However, fixtures were kept under wraps.?

A rather flat week in the Indian Ocean, but a 56,000-dwt was fixed delivery Fujairah trip via Arabian Gulf redelivery Bangladesh at $38,000.??

In Handysize segment, it was a short week for many, but the BHSI made some positive gains after a period of negativity.?

Brokers spoke of more enquiry in East Coast South America in recent days.?

A 33,000-dwt fixed from Vitoria to East Coast Mexico at $35,000 and a 40,000-dwt was rumoured to have been placed on subjects for a trip from Recalada to Algeria at $40,000.?

In the US Gulf a 38,000-dwt was fixed from the US Gulf to Spain in the upper $20,000s.?

In Asia, a 28,000-dwt open in North China was rumoured to have been placed on subjects for a trip to South East Asia with an intended cargo of steels at $21,000. A 35,000-dwt open in South East Asia fixed a trip to US West Coast in the Low $30,000s.?

Period was also active with a 28,000-dwt open in Japan in early May fixing four to six months at $25,000.

In equity markets, U.S. stock indexes Friday sold off to 5-week lows and settled sharply lower.?

Stocks retreated on concern the Fed will be aggressive in tightening monetary policy.??

Also, weakness in healthcare stocks weighed on the overall market after HCA Healthcare said that rising labor costs are cutting into its earnings results.??

HCA slumped 21.8% after reporting a downbeat profit view, while other hospital operators felt the contagion: Tenet Healthcare (THC.N), Community Health Systems (CYH.N) and Universal Health Services (UHS.N)all tumbled between 14% and 17.9%.

Surgical robot maker Intuitive Surgical dropped 14.3% after warning of weaker demand from hospitals due to tighter finances.

In addition, heavy machinery stocks tumbled on concerns about global growth with pandemic lockdowns in China, the war in Europe, and soaring global bond yields.

An unexpected increase in U.S. manufacturing activity, in contrast, was supportive for stocks.

Data from S&P Global, indeed, showed U.S. manufacturing activity expanded this month.??

In addition, positive quarterly corporate earnings results has been supportive for stocks, with 79% of the 98 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings beating estimates.?

In this context, Wall Street tumbled more than 2.5% on Friday.

All three main benchmarks ended in negative territory for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 981.36 points, or 2.82%, to 33,811.4.

The S&P 500 lost 121.88 points, or 2.77%, to 4,271.78.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 335.36 points, or 2.55%, to 12,839.29.

Smaller company stocks also fell sharply.?

The Russell 2000 slid 50.80 points, or 2.6%, to 1,940.66.

For the week, the Dow dipped 1.9%, the S&P dropped 2.8%, and the Nasdaq declined 3.8%.

It was the third straight week of losses for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, while the Dow Jones posted its fourth weekly decline in a row.

For the Dow, its 2.82% drop on Friday was its biggest one-day fall since October 2020.

The Nasdaq is down 17.9% in 2022.

The CBOE Volatility index, also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped on Friday, ending at its highest level since mid-March.

In currency trade, the dollar index on Friday rose by +0.599 (+0.60%) to 102.213.??

The dollar rallied moderately and posted a new 2-year high.??

Weakness in the British pound and Chinese yuan supported gains in the dollar.?

The pound fell to a 17-1/2 month low against the dollar on weaker-than-expected UK Mar retail sales data, while the yuan fell to an 8-3/4 month low against the dollar on concern China’s Covid-Zero policy will maintain pandemic lockdowns that undercut economic growth.??

The slump in stocks Friday also boosted the liquidity demand for the dollar.?

EUR/USD on Friday fell by -0.0042 (-0.39%) to 1.0794.??

EUR/USD fell back on long liquidation pressures ahead of Sunday’s presidential election in France.??

Losses in the euro were limited by hawkish ECB comments Friday, along with stronger than expected Eurozone manufacturing and services data.

ECB Governing Council member Holzmann, indeed, said it is crucial that ECB asset purchases come to an end as soon as possible in order to start "visible" interest rate increases.

The Eurozone Apr S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell -1.2 to 55.3, stronger than expectations of 54.9.

The Eurozone Apr S&P Global composite PMI unexpectedly rose +0.9 to a 7-month high of 55.8, stronger than expectations of a decline to 53.9.

USD/JPY on Friday rose by +0.18 (+0.14%) to 128.57.??

USD/JPY posted modest gains as it consolidates just below Wednesday’s 19-3/4 year high.??

The yen, weakened early on Friday on comments from BOJ Governor Kuroda, who said there’s no overheating in Japan’s economy, which dampened speculation the BOJ would tighten monetary policy at next week’s policy meeting.??

The yen, however, garnered early support Friday on a report from TBS that said Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen discussed the possibility of coordinated currency intervention during a meeting they had Thursday.

On the weather side, a late spring snowstorm brought much needed moisture to North Dakota while bringing cold temperatures to the rest of the central plains.?

Many areas across the Plains states recorded record low temperatures.?

There is risk of freeze damage but it depends in part on the wheat plant’s stage of development; and, if there was damage, it will not be evident for a few weeks Central Montana and eastern Washington both received snowfall this week.?

Overall, late spring snow and rain have introduced wide scale improvement to the Pacific Northwest.?

According to the USDA, 70% of total U.S. winter wheat production is in an area experiencing drought, up 1 point from last week, including HRW, SRW and SW.?

This includes 82% of the production area in Kansas, 98% in Colorado, 99% in Texas, and 99% in Montana.

Meantime, yet another blizzard is set to rake across the High Plains, featuring plenty of unwanted high winds and snow.?

And most of the central U.S. will see at least some measurable moisture between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.?

The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more cooler-than-normal weather for most areas north of I-70 between April 29 and May 5, with extended seasonally wet weather for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest during that time.

On the supply side, the USDA released its third Crop Progress report Monday afternoon.?

As of Sunday, the report pegged corn planted at 4%, compared to 6% for the previous five-year average.

The report pegged soybeans planted at 1%, compared to 2% for the previous five-year average.

Spring wheat planted was reported at 8% compared with 9% for the prior five-year average.

Winter wheat came in at 7% vs. the 12% five-year average.?

Winter wheat condition was 30% good/excellent and 37% poor/very poor, the lowest for this time of year since 1996.

This compares with the previous year average of 53% good/excellent and 17% poor/very poor.?

As for oats, oats planted was reported at 34% vs. the five-year average of 39%, and 24% of oats had emerged as of April 17, which was 4% less than the five-year average.

The report also indicated that nationwide, topsoil moisture was rated as 48% adequate and 16% surplus.?

The previous year was 61% adequate and 8% surplus.

On the demand side, NOPA members, crushed 181.759 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 10.1% from the February crush of 165.057 million bushels and up 2.1% from the 177.984 million bushels processed in March 2021.?

It was the largest March crush on record among NOPA members.

The crush had been expected to rise to 181.991 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts.?

Estimates ranged from 179.200 million to 186.000 million bushels, with a median of 181.558 million bushels.

NOPA said soyoil supplies among its members as of March 31 were 1.908 billion lbs.?

The stocks were down 7.3% from the 22-month high of 2.059 billion lbs at the end of February and up 7.7% from stocks totaling 1.771 billion lbs at the end of March 2021.

Soyoil supplies at the end of March were expected to have risen to 2.072 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from eight analysts.?

Estimates ranged from 1.960 billion to 2.144 billion, with a median of 2.077 billion.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol producers averaged 947,000 barrels of output per day during the week that ended 4/15, against 995,000 last week.?

That was another 48k barrels per day drop off wk/wk, for an accumulated 2.66m fewer barrels of output since the week that ended 3/18.?

Stocks got tighter by 461k barrels compared to last week, and by 1.8m barrels compared to the week ending 3/18 with 24.342m barrels of ethanol supplies as of 4/15.?

Meantime, the EPA reported on Thursday that the U.S. generated 1.27 billion ethanol blending credits in March, which was moderately above February’s total of 1.07 billion.?

The U.S. also generated 490 million biodiesel blending credits last month, versus 396 million in February.

USDA’s FAS report 879,212 MT of corn was sold during the week that ended 4/14.?

That was below the range of expectations, and down 34% from week to week.?

China was the top buyer with 675k MT during the week – though the business was previously announced.?

China also added 340k MT of new crop corn, also previously announced in the daily system, and the majority of the 389.6k MT total.?

US old crop corn export commitments (shipped plus outstanding sales) are now at 56.649 MMT, 16% below last year at this time.?

That takes them to 89% of the full year WASDE forecast, slightly behind the average pace of 91%.?

As for corn exports, USDA reported 1.196 MMT was shipped through the week of 4/14.?

That set the MY total as 36.57 MMT, or 1.44 bbu, or 50.5% of the USDA forecast.?

Accumulated exports are 56% of the full year projection, 1% above normal.?

As for soybean, the report showed 460,244 MT of soybeans were booked during the week of 4/14.?

Of that, nearly 430k MT were previously announced via the daily announcement system.?

Traders had expected 300k to 800k MT going in.?

New crop bean bookings were reported as 1.24 MMT, with China’s 554k MT previously announced sale as the majority.?

Unknown destinations booked 351k MT of the total.?

USDA had old crop commitments as 57.1 MMT, or 2.098 bbu, or 99.2% of USDA’s forecast.?

Accumulated shipments, at 1.69 bbu, were 79.9% of the forecasted total.?

As for wheat, weekly export sales were shown as 26,347 MT for the week of 4/14, as Nigeria canceled 131k MT.?

That was a marketing year low.

Estimates going in were for below 350k MT.?

Old crop wheat export commitments are now 19.550 MMT.?

That is just 92% of USDA’s full year forecast of 785 mbu.?

They would normally be 103% by now.

USDA reported 504,002 MT of wheat were shipped during the week, setting the MY total as 16.65 MMT through 4/14.?

Shipments to date are still 22% smaller than a year ago, at 16.867 MMT.?

That is 78% of the USDA projection vs. the average of 84% by now.?

For new crop wheat sales, the FAS update showed 238,370 MT were booked which left forward bookings at 2.14 MMT.?

Meantime, on Friday private exporters reported to the USDA sold 1,347,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China.??

Of the total, 735,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 612,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

281,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico were also sold.??

Of the total, 90,200 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 190,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

Also, 144,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico were sold.??

Of the total, 48,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 96,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed increased farmer selling, and the net long position held by the large spec funds rose for the week, to 379,100 contracts.

Particularly, managed money firms added 11,104 new longs against 1.9k new shorts for a 9,158 contract stronger net long through the week of 4/19.??

Commercial corn hedgers added 41,720 contracts of new hedges on the week, with the 31k new shorts extending their net short by 20.5k contracts to 735,187.?

As for soybean CFTC showed the large managed money spec funds were still adding to their position through April 14, up 7,850 contracts of futures and options.?

That came mainly as net new buying,?as they were net long 179,723 contracts at COB.

The funds were also 6,131 contracts more net long in soymeal, after buying a net 5,256 more contracts through the week.?

In BO, the CoT report showed managed money expanded their net long by 12,025 contracts to a 13-month high 96,088 contracts.?

As for wheat, the Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds liquidated 2,169 contracts from their net long position in the week ending 4/14, leaving their Chicago net long at 14,470 contracts on that date.?

That was a 2,169 contract weaker net long wk/wk driven by net new spec selling.?

In KC wheat, managed money firms were 449 contracts more net long on net new buying to 49,841 contracts.?

The weekly update showed spec traders were also 1,747 contracts more net long wk/wk for spring wheat to 19,867 contracts.?

From Canada, the EPA ruled that fuels derived from canola oil qualify as “advanced biofuels” under the RFS program.?

On this wake, the Canola Council of Canada’s President suggests that could boost biofuel as a use for Canadian canola from the ~5-8% current rate to 20% before the end of the decade.?

The Canola Council of Canada’s goal is to reap 26 MMT of canola by 2025 – up from 12.6 MMT in 21/22 and up 43% from the 4-yr average.?

Meantime, trader estimates for the StatsCan corn intentions range from 3.2m to 3.67m acres into the 22/23 season.?

If the average 3.41m is realized, that would be down from this year’s 3.49m acres.?

Analysts expect StatsCan to report between 18.48m and 23.5m ’22 canola acres in next Tuesday’s Planting Intentions data.?

If the average 22.11m acres is realized, that would be a 1.6% loss in area yr/yr.?

For Canadian soybean acreage, the trade is looking for between 5.07 million and 6m acres with a 5.5m acre average estimate.?

As for wheat, estimates going into StatsCan’s Planting Intentions report show traders expect to see an average of 24.15m all wheat acres. Durum specific area is estimated at 5.75m.?

For all Canadian wheat that would be a 2.94% increase in area yr/yr if realized, though with just 220k acres more in durum.

Meantime, as of April 19, 2022, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery West Coast were (Cdn$/mt):?

- for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% - $589.8 per tonne, up C$16.94/t from prior week;?

- for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% - $582.37/t, up C$16.47 wow;

- for the N3 CWRS - $600.02/t, up C$15.50 from prior week.

As of April 19, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class) deferred average prices for delivery in May/Jun '22 were at C$551.16 unchanged week on week.

Meanwhile, export basis West Coast & Central SK increased from C$ 200.43 to 200.72 per tonne, as delivered FOB price Great Lakes was posted at C$ 751.88, up C$0.29 from prior week.

As of April 22, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class), average street prices in REGIONAL ZONES were at C$576.44 per tonne, up C$1.06 from prior week.?

(1USD=Cnd$1.2716 up from past week when was 1.2598).

From South America, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported 23% of the corn crop in Argentina was harvested.?

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also estimates Argentina will plant 6.5m HA of wheat in 22/23.?

That would be down 3% from the current season.?

Meantime, as of April 21, 2022 - Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $439, up $26 from prior week.

Argentina corn feed was up $7/t for the week, closing at $320.

Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was valued at $354, up $4 from prior week.

Argentina feed barley, was unchanged to $355.

Argentina soybean was up $15 at $669.

Brazilian soybean rose $24 finishing the week at $689.

In Europe, FranceAgriMer reported 32% of the corn crop had been planted through 4/18.?

That was up from 8% last week but trails the 37% pace from the same time last season.?

Meantime, May wheat price on Euronext rose 6 euros per tonne from prior week, to close at 407 euros.

September contract closed the week at €366.75/t unchanged from past week.?

June corn price was 2 euros weaker for the week, closing at 330.75 euros per ton.

Rapeseed May 2022 contract jumped €77.25/t for the week, to close €1081.25/t.?

May-22 UK feed wheat futures, lifted ￡1 from prior week, closing at ￡322/t.?

Meantime, as of April 21, 2022, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and May delivery, were at $448/mt, up $4 from prior week.

French durum wheat - basis La Pallice, was at $442.55/mt, down $23 from prior week.

Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), was valued this week at $569.92 per tonne down $1.75 from past week.

Corn, delivered Bordeaux port was at $362.68 per tonne, down $9.77/t from past week.

Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2021 basis was down $19.54 to $370.23.

Feed barley FOB Rouen was at 424.20$/t, down $0.2 per tonne.

Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2021 basis was at $458.75 per tonne, up $4.01/t from prior week.

Rapessed FOB Moselle - 2021 harvest was at 1159.27$/ton, up $61.42 compared to prior week.

Standard sunseed FOB Bordeaux - 2021 harvest was up 24.2$ from prior week at $1090.19 per tonne.

(Eur/USD = 1.0794 vs last week 1.0827).

From the Black Sea basin, Russia’s customs service said it would temporarily suspend the publication of import and export data.?

The customs service said this is an effort to exclude errors and speculation.?

The customs service had previously published import and export data in the first 10 days of each month.?

Meantime, Russia is on course for a record 2022 wheat crop of 87.4 million tonnes, Russian consultancy Sovecon said on Thursday, raising its previous forecast of 86.5 million tonnes.

The forecast for Russia, was raised due to excellent crop conditions and good availability of crop nutrients, Sovecon added.

That, fully offsets a substantial 5% decrease in the area planted last autumn, Andrey Sizov, the head of Sovecon, said in a statement.

Meantime, Sovecon estimates Russia's wheat exports in the July-June 2022/23 marketing season will reach at 41.0 million tonnes, up compared to 33.9 million tonnes in the current season.

This, Provided that, no Western sanctions will be on food exports from Russia and no substantial escalation of the military activity, will be in the Black Sea region.

Russia's current exports could be higher if it was not for the state export quota which limits them until June 30.?

Sovecon estimates that Russia still has 3 million tonnes of wheat to export in May-June within the quota.?

Meantime, it expects that Russian government will set grain export quotas again in the second half of the 2022/23 season and their size to be close to export potential.

Russia, indeed, will be able to increase exports in the new July-June season thanks to high carry-over stocks in the south of the country and a record crop forecast.

Russian exporters, on its part, have largely managed to resolve problems with logistics and the transfer of payments caused by Western sanctions imposed on Moscow since late February and are exporting wheat from the Russian side of the Black Sea and sporadically from the Azov Sea.

Also, Sovecon said if a ceasefire agreement is reached by the summer, Ukraine will boost wheat exports from its southern ports quickly as Kyiv needs to sell its high stocks and obtain foreign currency to finance imports.

Ukraine, may export 20 million tonnes of wheat in the 2022/23 season if its ports are open again.

Both scenarios could help to ease global concerns over food security and to cool global prices.

Meanwhile insurance for vessels entering Russian ports has risen by $4-6 per tonne since Feb. 24, this has been absorbed relatively easily due to high wheat prices, Sovecon said.

Meantime, the Russian Ag. Min has amended the export tax for wheat, barley and corn for the week of April 27 - May 05, 2022.

Particularly, the export duty will be $119.1 on wheat, $73.3 on barley and $54.9 on corn.

Indicative prices will be $370.2 for wheat, $289.8 for barley and $263.5 for corn.

That is compared, with prior week (April 20-26) when the tax was $110.7 for wheat, $76.0 for barley and $66.1 for corn, while indicative price were $358.2 for wheat, $293.6 for barley and $279.5 for corn.

From South East Asia, beginning April 28th, Indonesia will no longer allow shipments of palm oil.?

The export ban is intended to reduce cooking oil prices in Indonesia, and will remain in place until further notice.??

Malaysian Palm Prices?were higher on Friday, to 6,871 ringgits.?

That maintained the Malaysian 8% export tax.?

Malaysia has an export tariff structure determined by price, starting at 3% and maxing at 8% above 3,450 ringgits.?

Prices have been above that mark for the most part since January of 2021.?

From Australia, indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne were:

Barley Downs: $370 up $5 from Apr 14;

SFW wheat Downs: $402, down $3 from Apr 14;

Sorghum Downs: $345, down $5 from Apr 14;

Barley Melbourne: $410, up $5 from Apr 14;

ASW wheat Melbourne: $415 up $7 from Apr 14.

SFW wheat Melbourne: $410 up $5 from Apr 14.

(AUD/USD=> US$0.7237).

April IGC global S&D?

The International Grains Council raised estimated global corn output by 3 MMT to 1.210 billion.?

Trade was raised by 2, with another 4 increase to domestic consumption which reduced carryout to 286 MMT.?

Their preliminary forecast for 22/23 is to see 1.197 MMT of corn output, which would be down 13 MMT yr/yr reflecting smaller crops in Ukraine and the United States.?

The inter-governmental body, in its first full assessment of the 2022/23 season, forecast Ukraine's corn crop falling to 18.6 million tonnes, down from the prior season's 41.9 million.

The United States, was forecast to see a decline in output to 376.6 million from the prior season's 383.9 million.

Larger crops were, however, anticipated in Brazil (123.1 million versus 114.6 million) and Argentina (63.7 million vs 57.0 million).

Carryout is forecasted to shrink 21 MMT to 265.?

The April IGC global S&D forecasts for soybeans showed a 1 MMT lighter output to 349 MMT.?

Stocks, however, were upped by 2 to 44 MMT.?

Their initial 22/23 forecasts are to see record 383 MMT production, and for stocks build by 10 MMT, to 54 MMT.?

That would still be below 20/21’s carryout if realized.?

International Grains Council forecasted their 22/23 wheat output to be 780 MMT, down 1 yr/yr, with a smaller crop in Ukraine (19.4 million vs 33.0 million) largely offset by larger crops elsewhere, including Russia (82.5 million vs 75.0 million) and Canada (31.6 mln vs 21.7 mln).

Trade matched 21/22 with 193 MMT, though stocks were to shrink by 5 MMT to 277 on increased domestic use.?

Watching next week market

The last week of April starts out with the normal Export Inspections in the morning and the Crop Progress report in the afternoon.?

Skip ahead to Wednesday and EIA will release ethanol production and stocks data as of the 22nd.?

Thursday is the weekly Export Sales report in the AM, with April feeder cattle futures and options expiring that day as well.?

Friday is first notice day for May grain futures as well as the last trading day for April live cattle futures.

That's all.

To all of you, I wish you a good day and a good weekend.

Author: Sandro F. Puglisi??

Make love ... not war ...

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