Gowing Africa's Future

Africa stands at a pivotal juncture in its pursuit of agricultural development, facing an intricate web of challenges yet brimming with untapped potential. As the continent strives to meet the growing food demands of its population, it grapples with the paradox of abundant natural resources overshadowed by persistent food insecurity. This dichotomy underscores the urgency for innovative strategies and robust policies to harness the full spectrum of Africa's agricultural capabilities.

As part of Agenda 2063 (Africa’s long-term vision), the African Union (AU) came up with the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP), an initiative that aimed to help African countries eliminate hunger and reduce poverty by raising economic growth through agriculture-led development. Member countries agreed to allocate at least 10% of national budgets to agriculture and rural development, and to achieve agricultural growth rates of at least 6% per annum. Underlying these investment commitments are targets for reducing poverty and malnutrition, increasing productivity and farm incomes, and improving the sustainability of agricultural production and use of natural resources.

The CAADP came up with four priority areas to achieve its goals. First, it sought to extend the area under sustainable land management and reliable water control systems, ensuring that agricultural practices are environmentally sound, and resources are utilized efficiently. Second, the program emphasized the improvement of rural infrastructure and trade-related capacities for market access, facilitating better connectivity and opportunities for farmers to reach broader markets. Third, it promised to increase food supply, reducing hunger, and enhancing responses to food emergency crises, thereby addressing immediate and long-term food security needs. Lastly, CAADP committed to improving agriculture research, technology dissemination, and adoption, fostering innovation and the application of modern techniques in agriculture.

In line with these ambitious goals, CAADP promised to transform African agriculture by 2025. This transformation aims to not only increase food production but also to build resilience against climate variability and economic shocks through the development of disaster preparedness policies, early warning response systems, and social safety nets. Sadly, the just published Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) by the Global Network on Food Crises (GNFC) in collaboration with Security Information Network (SIN) paint a grim picture of Africa’s food. ??The report noted that many ccountries/territories that required external assistance for food and/or faced shocks as assessed by FAO?GIEWS in 2023 are in Africa.

Indeed, a recent research paper, Crop yields fail to rise in smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa by Wollburg and others said that total factor productivity (TFP) suggests an overall decline in productivity of ?3.5% per year. Various other models they tested also find declining productivity in the overall sample, and none of them finds productivity growth.? Many other studies corroborate these findings, illustrating a troubling trend of declining food production across the continent. For instance, research has highlighted that climate change, with its associated erratic weather patterns and extreme events, has significantly impacted agricultural productivity. Additionally, economic shocks and persistent conflicts have exacerbated food insecurity by disrupting farming activities, displacing populations, and straining already fragile food systems.

Furthermore, the volatile nature of conflicts and economic shocks within the region compounds the challenges faced by the agricultural sector. Persistent conflicts have not only displaced millions of people but have also disrupted farming activities, leading to loss of crops and livestock. This has strained the already fragile food systems, making it difficult for communities to recover and rebuild their agricultural productivity.

Economic shocks, such as fluctuating commodity prices and inflation, further exacerbate the situation. These shocks reduce farmers' incomes, limit their access to essential agricultural inputs, and hinder investments in sustainable farming practices. Consequently, the combined impact of these conflicts and economic instabilities has significantly contributed to the overall decline in agricultural productivity, thwarting efforts to achieve food security and economic growth in Africa.

The convergence of these factors has led to a situation where, despite the ambitious goals and substantial efforts under initiatives like CAADP, African countries are struggling to meet their food production targets. This underscores the urgent need for renewed focus and innovative solutions to address the multifaceted drivers of the food crisis. There is a critical need to enhance climate resilience, stabilize economies, and foster peace and security to create an environment conducive to sustainable agricultural growth and food security.

In contrast, agricultural productivity is improving in developed countries. Manufacturers of agricultural equipment are moving toward higher capacity machinery, which is contributing to productivity gains and decreased commodity prices. This trend has significant implications for global food security but could lead to unintended consequences in Africa. On one hand, enhanced productivity leads to lower prices and increased food availability and affordability in regions that are currently facing food crises. On the other hand, the influx of low-priced agricultural products from developed countries can undermine local agriculture in Africa. This could potentially create a dependency on imported food, stifling the growth of domestic agricultural industries and hindering efforts to achieve self-sufficiency.

The war in Ukraine has further highlighted the vulnerabilities and dependencies within Africa's agricultural sector. The disruption of wheat production by large conglomerates in Ukraine has had ripple effects across global supply chains, exposing the extent of Africa's reliance on imported wheat. To break free from the cycle of subsistence farming, Africa must harness its extensive land resources and foster synergistic partnerships with large-scale agricultural conglomerates. These collaborations could pave the way towards achieving food sovereignty by merging local knowledge with advanced agricultural techniques, thereby enhancing productivity and sustainability. The continent has no choice but to optimize their agricultural output and create a more resilient food system.

Further, Africa must invest in technology, infrastructure, and education, combined with strong land use policies and sustainable practices. Efforts must be made to build resilience against climate change and stabilize regional economies. It is crucial for African countries to leverage their unique agricultural strengths, such as diverse climates and rich natural resources, to build a robust food system. In addition, foster innovation and collaboration, and address the underlying issues of conflict and economic instability. With these interventions, Africa can work towards a future where it can compete on the global stage and ensure food security for its population.