Govt Formation, Jan Exports, Cold Wave to Persist, Govt Borrowing & Debt, IMF Power Debt Talks, China Annual Targets.

TOPLINE

• The ECP uploaded documents, including Form 45, amid opposition allegations of rigging but later deleted them. The PPP secured the required "345 electoral votes" for Asif Zardari as President. Imran Khan approved the KPK cabinet members. PML-N has become the largest party in the NA with 123 MNAs after reserved seats were allocated.
• In January, services exports in Pakistan decreased by 7.25% Y-o-Y to $677.96 million, marking the third consecutive decline. However, in PKR terms, service exports grew by 17.96% to Rs 190.04 billion. Rs 93.5 billion was the export value of readymade garments in Jan 2024, up 36.3% compared to Rs 68.6 billion in Jan 2023.
• The Met Office extended the cold wave until March 8 due to sudden chilly weather following rain on March 1. Rain last week resulted in 40 fatalities, 62 injuries, and damage to 555 partially and 80 completely damaged houses.
• The government plans to borrow Rs 3.92 trillion from banks over the next 3 months to finance its deficit through PIBs and market treasury bill auctions. During the first 7 months of FY’24, the government's total debt stocks rose by 6% to reach Rs 64.842 trillion, with domestic debt rising 10% to Rs 42.626 trillion.
• The new government intends to revisit discussions with the IMF on tariff rationalization and circular debt management, which were previously rejected. These plans, including settling Rs1.27 trillion of circular debt and reducing industrial tariffs to 9 cents/unit, are crucial for stimulating the economy.
• China plans to increase its defense spending by 7.2% this year. Premier Li Qiang stated that China aims for approximately 5% economic growth this year. The rise exceeds the government's economic growth forecast and coincides with tougher language toward Taiwan.

COMMODITIES - CROPS, LIVESTOCK & HORTICULTURE

• Cotton Prices Stable in Sindh & Punjab: In Sindh and Punjab, the cotton rate ranges from Rs 20,000-22,500/maund, while phutti prices in Punjab are between Rs 8,500-10,200/40 kg. Recent sales include 1800 bales of Deherki at Rs 21,500/maund, 600 bales of Sadiqabad at the same rate, and 200 bales of Shujabad at Rs 21,900/maund. The Spot Rate remains steady at Rs 21,500/maund. [BR]
• Government Raises Fees for Fish Export Certificates: The government has increased fees for issuing certificates concerning the quality and origin of fish and fishery products to regulate their exports from Pakistan. The Ministry of Maritime Affairs informed the ECC that the federal government can oversee fish and fishery product exports through the Marine Fisheries Department (MFD) in Karachi. [ET]
• Pakistan's Services Exports: January Update - In January, services exports in Pakistan decreased by 7.25% year-on-year to $677.96 million, marking the third consecutive month of decline. However, in rupee terms, service exports grew by 17.96% to Rs 190.04 billion compared to the corresponding month last year. [Dawn]
• Punjab Government Trials Nigehbaan Ramadan Package: As part of the Nigehbaan Ramadan package by the Punjab government, 1,200 households in the Rawalpindi division received free food bags via home delivery on a trial basis. The program will officially launch on the second day of Ramadan in all districts, providing dry rations to registered households by March 15. [Dawn]
• Readymade Garments Export: Rs 93.5 billion was the export value of readymade garments in Jan 2024, up 36.3% compared to Rs 68.6 billion in Jan 2023, according to the PBS. [ET]

AGRI-INPUTS, WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• Met Office Extends Cold Wave, Rain Damage Reported: The Met Office extended the cold wave until March 8 due to sudden chilly weather following rain on March 1. Dry weather will persist, with minimum temperatures gradually rising from 14°C on Wednesday to 15°C by March 7. Rain last week resulted in 40 fatalities, 62 injuries, and damage to 555 partially and 80 completely damaged houses, according to the PDMA. [BR] [ET] [The Nation]
• Relief Package for Flood-Hit Gwadar: Shehbaz Sharif visited the flood-hit Gwadar on Tuesday, unveiling a relief package for affected residents. The compensation package includes Rs 2 million for families who lost loved ones, Rs 500,000 for the injured, Rs 750,000 for homes completely demolished, and Rs 350,000 for partially damaged properties. [Dawn]
• Pakistan Flood Aid Disbursement: Funding Gap Persists - Out of $11 billion pledged for flood-affected areas in Pakistan, only $1.4 billion has been disbursed, mainly for project financing. Including additional funding from the Islamic Development Bank and Saudi Fund for Development, total disbursements reach $2.69 billion, still falling short of the pledged amount despite significant flood-related losses estimated at over $16.4 billion. [The News]
• IMF Tariff Reform Priority: The new government intends to revisit discussions with the IMF on tariff rationalization and circular debt management, which were previously rejected. These plans, including settling Rs1.27 trillion of circular debt and reducing industrial tariffs to 9 cents/unit, are seen as crucial for stimulating the economy. [The News]
• Hubco Foresees Decline: Electricity Consumption Slump - Hubco, Pakistan's largest private utility, expects a further decline in power consumption due to higher tariffs and sluggish industrial activity, potentially marking the first consecutive annual decline in electricity use in 16 years, according to data from Ember. Hubco's CFO, Muhammad Saqib, attributed this trend to the industry's lack of growth. [BR]
• Peshawar Declared Load-Shedding-Free: Peshawar has been declared load-shedding-free, with 16 feeders across the city enjoying the status. The task force aims to extend this to other districts with effective recovery from defaulting consumers. Tributes were paid to officials for recovering Rs1.5 billion. [ET] [The Nation] [The News]
• SNGPL Lifts RLNG Connection Ban, Plans 30,000 New: SNGPL aims to provide 30,000 new RLNG-based domestic connections by June 30, lifting the ban on such connections. However, the ban on providing indigenous gas to domestic consumers continues indefinitely. SNGPL's MD stated that the backlog of domestic connections, including up to 50,000 RLNG-based ones, will be addressed, despite the higher tariff compared to indigenous gas connections. [Dawn]
• LPG Prices Jump by Rs 20/kg Before Ramadan: LPG prices surged by Rs 20 per kg ahead of Ramadan, prompting OGRA and the LPG Distributors Association to meet and develop a joint strategy against the illegal hike. Consumers are baffled by the sudden increase, while authorities are yet to take action against the LPG mafia profiteering from the situation. [ET]
• February 2024: Oil Sales Decline Amid Rising Prices - In February 2024, oil sales by oil marketing companies dropped by 8% year-on-year, with furnace oil declining by 32%, high-speed diesel by 7%, and motor spirit by 1%. This decline was attributed to rising petroleum prices and reduced demand for power during winter months. Overall, OMC volumes in 8MFY24 decreased by 13% year-on-year, mainly due to a 52% decline in furnace oil volumes. [BR]

AGRI UPDATES & PAKISTAN POLICY

• PPP Secures Votes for Zardari in Presidential Election: The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has secured the required "345 electoral votes" for its nominee, Asif Ali Zardari, ahead of the presidential election on March 9, according to sources. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari was briefed on this achievement by the committee members overseeing the presidential campaign. [The News]
• Imran Khan Endorses KP Cabinet for District Representation: Imran Khan approved the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa cabinet members, stressing district representation. 7 names got his endorsement, while the chief minister will decide the rest. The cabinet includes 10 ministers, 3 advisors, and 3 special assistants for representation. [ET]
• PML-N in National Assembly: After the distribution of reserved seats, PML-N has become the largest party in the National Assembly with 123 MNAs. Initially winning 75 general seats and being joined by 9 independents, they were allocated additional reserved seats, totaling 107. Following the ECP's decision, they gained more reserved seats, bringing their tally to 123. [Dawn] [ET]
• ECP Uploads Election Documents Amid Rigging Allegations: The ECP uploaded election documents, including Forms 45, amid opposition allegations of rigging. The PTI remains dissatisfied, claiming the uploaded Forms 45 are tampered and asserting possession of original ones alleging election fraud. [ET] [BR] [DT] [ARY]
• Finance Ministry Preps for IMF Review: The Ministry of Finance is preparing for key talks with an IMF review mission next week, post the federal cabinet formation, focusing on completing the second review under the $3 billion Standby Arrangement program. Additionally, the United States has expressed readiness to collaborate with Pakistan's new government, as stated by the US State Department Spokesperson Miller. [The News] [BR]
• ECC Funds World Bank Credit, Boosts Mortgages: The ECC approved Rs 7.622 billion for covering the remaining funds of the first tranche of a $85 million credit line from the World Bank. Additionally, it was noted that the PMRC, established jointly by the government, commercial banks, and development finance institutions with support from the IFC and WB, aims to provide medium- and long-term funding to primary mortgage lenders. [BR]
• Government to Borrow Rs 3.92 Trillion for Fiscal Deficit: The government plans to borrow Rs 3.92 trillion from banks over the next three months to finance its fiscal deficit, primarily through Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) and market treasury bill auctions. This includes raising Rs 2.110 trillion through PIBs and Rs 1.810 trillion through treasury bill auctions. [The News]
• Government Debt Surges, Analysts Attribute to Tax Shortfall: During the first seven months of fiscal year 2024, the federal government's total debt stocks rose by 6% to reach Rs 64.842 trillion, with domestic debt increasing by 10% to Rs 42.626 trillion. Analysts suggest that the government's persistent borrowing, due to inadequate tax revenue, is contributing to the escalating debt burden. [BR] [ET]
• March 2024: 66.2% Drop in Unfiled Income Tax Returns - In March 2024, FBR data showed a significant 66.2% decrease in the number of old income tax return filers who didn't file returns in 2023 compared to 2022. The ATL for 2022 had 5,730,000 filers, dropping to 3,350,000 in 2023, with 840,000 new filers, resulting in a total of 2,510,000 filers for 2023 compared to 2022. [BR] [BR]

INTERNATIONAL – OVERVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK

• Israeli Genocide: Hamas negotiators remained in Cairo for a third day of ceasefire talks, aiming to end Gaza fighting before Ramadan, release Israeli hostages, and prevent famine. The proposed 40-day ceasefire would facilitate hostage release, increase aid to Gaza, and allow families to return to abandoned homes. [Dawn]
• EU Draft Law Targets Global Forced Labor, Including China: The EU is closer to banning products from forced labor, reaching an agreement on a law aimed at blocking imports, possibly impacting China. The draft law targets forced labor globally, including within the EU. According to the International Labour Organisation, nearly 28 million people, including 3.3 million children, are subjected to forced labor worldwide. [Dawn]
• China Increases Defense Spending by 7.2%: China plans to increase its defense spending by 7.2% this year, continuing the trend of significant growth under President Xi Jinping. Premier Li Qiang stated that China aims for approximately 5% economic growth this year, similar to last year's target. The rise exceeds the government's economic growth forecast and coincides with tougher language towards Taiwan, dropping the mention of "peaceful reunification" from official reports. [Dawn] [VOA] [Al Jazeera] [CGTN] [BR]
• Meta Platforms Experience Global Outage: On Tuesday, Facebook and Instagram, owned by Meta, suffered a global outage lasting over an hour, affecting hundreds of thousands of users worldwide. Users reported login issues and inability to access the platforms, with over 300,000 reports of outages for Facebook and 40,000 for Instagram on Downdetector.com. [BR]
• Bitcoin Price Swings Cause Chaos on Trading Platform: Bitcoin's price swings caused chaos in the crypto markets, leading to failed trades and liquidated positions on Jupiter, a derivatives trading platform. The surge above $69,000 and subsequent sell-off triggered issues. Other cryptos, like SOL, mirrored bitcoin's movements, attracting more traders to Jupiter's futures service, which saw 100 times more activity than usual. [ET] [CoinDesk] [NYT] [WP] [NPR]
• EU Proposes Arms Industry Boost Amid Russia-Ukraine Crisis: EU officials propose strengthening the arms industry following Russia's actions in Ukraine, advocating for joint purchases and increased spending on European firms. The European Commission plans to invest 1.5 billion euros to incentivize joint purchases and address production capacity shortages, according to Margrethe Vestager, a Commission vice president. [BR]

PAKISTAN - REMAINDERS

• Sindh High Court: Citizenship Provision Ruled Discriminatory - The Sindh High Court deemed a provision in the Citizenship Act of 1951 discriminatory, as it favors foreign wives of Pakistani men over husbands of Pakistani women with foreign nationality. The court emphasized the need for equal treatment, allowing Pakistanis married to foreigners to live together and acquire nationality for their spouses. [Dawn]
• COAS Condemns Allegations: During the 263rd Corps Commanders’ Conference (CCC) presided over by Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Syed Asim Munir at GHQ on Tuesday, top military leaders expressed dismay over certain political and media segments, particularly on social media, for spreading baseless allegations of military interference in politics, terming it highly deplorable. [BR]