The Government response to California wildfires represents an abject failure in PROCESS.

Regarding the PEOPLE - PROCESS - TECHNOLOGY triangle, the lack of competent governmental response to the wildfires in California primarily points to a lack of proper PROCESS.

Everyone is aware that California has a 100% chance of experiencing major earthquakes or wildfire disasters every few years. No A.I. learning models are needed to know that—this is not a technology issue.

Yes, there's a leadership issue (PEOPLE) here. But even weak or incompetent leaders should be able to point to a mitigation PLAN and simply work the PROCESS. Clearly, the PROCESS isn’t there.

I've lived in every corner (and in the middle) of the United States. I've experienced many tornados in tornado alley (Oklahoma), hurricanes in hurricane alley (Florida), been evacuated en masse and trapped in traffic for ~12 hours, experienced numerous earthquakes, large and small (California and Washington State), been through severe lockdowns in New York City during the COVID, but I’ve never experienced anything as fierce as a spreading wildfire pushed by hurricane-speed winds.

As a Los Angeles resident living through this in real time, I find it challenging to find the right words to describe what we are experiencing. We are horrified. This is surreal. We are in a state of suspended belief. In large areas, the landscape resembles a dystopian nightmare.

I am incredibly fortunate. My family is safe. From our balcony, we watched a small distant flame on a nearby ridge escalate into a line of fire, driving down into the lower areas while wrapping itself and consuming an entire ridge in 20 minutes. Nature holds the ultimate power.

The heroic labor of the first responders should not go unmentioned. THANK YOU. They are battling fires, lack of sleep, and a complete lack of competence by their leadership.

This is what is so troubling:

CALIFORNIA IS A GEOGRAPHICAL HOTSPOT KNOWN FOR WIDESCALE DISASTERS

California’s geography lends itself to wide-scale disasters. We built a massive civilization on this geographic hotspot, and fires and earthquakes are part of the ecosystem here.

However, volatility exists in every geographic area. The tragedy is that the wealthiest state in the nation doesn’t have a plan.

WILDFIRES ARE NOT NEW TO CALIFORNIA

This scale of disaster isn't new. In 2019, as in previous years, wildfires in (northern) California caused over 100 thousand people to flee their homes.

By now, citizens should expect the government to have an evidence-based mitigation strategy (PROCESS) for wildfire response. Where is that plan?

LOS ANGELES IS A UNIQUE GEOGRAPHIC URBAN AREA

Los Angeles's geography is generally misunderstood. “Los Angeles” sometimes refers to the urban city but is also the name of the county that extends well beyond the city. It is bordered by the Pacific Ocean on the west and east-west ranges of mountains on the other, while the basin (a large valley) projects south to San Diego. Over 10 million people live within a 35-mile radius of the Malibu Mountains (on the west side of “Los Angeles”).

Millions of humans living in close proximity to each other are bound to create a spark at some inopportune moment.

Widescale wildfires are not new to California or Los Angeles County. Generally, there have been 2 fires per decade in the Malibu Canyon since 1929.

It's not that the fires could have been prevented; it's that the process of responding to this crisis could have greatly mitigated the loss and human suffering. Where is the plan to coordinate response and mitigate worst-case scenarios?

THERE WERE SIGNS & WARNINGS THAT SOMETHING MIGHT HAPPEN THIS MONTH

California and Los Angeles leadership knew that wildfires might be an issue directly before this happened. Personal weather forecast apps warned us of the risk of local wildfires a week prior.

Additionally, thousands of homeowner policies were not renewed within the last month. California's 'non-competitive' insurance market caused several private insurers to exit the state.

This was not a failure of TECHNOLOGY. The warning signs were obvious.

TOTAL LACK OF COORDINATION & ORGANIZATION

You have likely heard news about L.A. firefighters hooking their hoses up to battle fires only to find out there was no water in certain areas. Reservoirs used to fight fires were empty. The L.A. fire chief has gone on record with many damning stories pointing to the lack of coordination between the water department and the mayor.

Wildfires are new to me and my family, but evacuation is not. We have a “go-bag” next to the door in case of evacuation for wildfires or the eventual earthquake. I didn’t get that information from the local government; I learned from experience. Local government here does not learn.

News is purposefully suppressed here. Government officials state that they are fighting disinformation. They also parse every update through public relations firms, which message information to citizens in a narrative ‘friendly’ to those in power.

CITIZENS LACK INFORMATION

Many reports were of individuals treating evacuation as a temporary inconvenience. However, that’s not the full story. Giant trails of smoke are obvious danger zones, but it’s important to understand that wildfires not only spread but also 'pop up' in spots.

Wildfires not only spread but also 'pop up' in certain spots. The Santa Ana winds are referred to as the devil winds. Rather than the expected straight coastal gusts inland from the Pacific, these winds are hurricane velocity, swirling and pushing down from top to bottom along the many ridges that line Los Angeles. This drives fire embers far in front of the fires.

Many individuals who left home to drop their kids off at school, run errands, or gather supplies were unaware of pop-up fires that swiftly consumed their neighborhoods. Many sad reports of individuals unable to return home in time to evacuate. They left behind critical medications, pets, and non-replaceable heirlooms. Individuals report that pharmacies will not fill certain critical medicines outside of the California-regulated 30-day window.

I don’t know if or which individuals had been forewarned. We heard nothing for days and then received multiple (loud) government-issued evacuation notifications on our smartphones. They were all false/incorrect.

One of those warnings came at 4 a.m. The first false evacuation order was rescinded in about an hour. The one that came in at 4 a.m. was false but not rescinded. We had to search other sources to find out it was incorrect and that we weren't in immediate danger.

But how could any citizen know for sure?

To get news about the wildfires and evacuations, we had to download a third-party non-profit application called Watch Duty.

The PROCESS is broken. There is little to no government coordination.

Are other regional governments watching and taking note? Are you learning from this incompetence?

SOLUTION:

Certainly, government has plenty of PROCESS. It's overburdened with PROCESS and regulation. In this case, IF there was any PROCESS, it seemingly only hindered the response and exacerbated individual suffering.

Wildfires could not be avoided, but the scale of this tragedy could.

This utter lack of competence shows systematic neglect of prioritizing public opinion polls over the public good.

If the California government were software, could it be fixed with a few additive patches and hotfixes? …or would we have to completely re-platform? (e.g., wipe-and-erase)

In an ideal world, what changes would the world's leading fire prevention experts recommend? What are the proper STRATEGIES and PROCESS?

In preparation for the next disaster and for the good of all humans, let’s hire the brightest minds to evaluate the ideal response and OPEN SOURCE the solution.