Is Google doomed?

Gartner predicts 25% drop in search traffic by 2026 - thanks to AI chatbots ????

Gartner just dropped a bold prediction: by 2026, search engine traffic could plunge by 25%, all thanks to the rise of AI chatbots and virtual agents. Let’s break this down and see how likely it is, and what could happen next. ??

So, is Google really about to lose a quarter of its search volume in the next two years? Honestly, it feels pretty realistic. If you’ve been hanging out with ChatGPT, you’ve probably already noticed yourself using Google less. What used to take a multi-tab search expedition now often takes one quick question to an AI. Whether it’s ChatGPT, Gemini, or Perplexity.ai (which searches the web and gives you sources), the need for traditional search engines is fading. ??????

OK, but what happens if search traffic drops by 25%?

First off, it’s obviously no great news for Google ??, but it’s fantastic for companies with unique, proprietary data—think Meta, X (formerly Twitter), and YouTube. These platforms don’t just rely on search; they own ecosystems of data and content that give them a huge advantage. Whoever controls the data, controls the game. ??

Second, Google Search isn’t going anywhere. It’s still a gold mine ??, but losing its crown as the “gateway to the internet” is a big challenge. In a recent podcast, the besties over at Allin.com suggested Google should “get really good at developing apps”—and they’re right. Google is at a pivotal moment, much like Bell Labs or Kodak ????. Both were innovators, but neither managed to monetize their breakthroughs. Ironically, Google’s pioneering work in AI could now undermine its own core business in search and ads. ??

This story is going to be a fun one to watch. My guess? ??

Google’s parent company, Alphabet, has been gearing up for this moment ever since it began diversifying nearly a decade ago. With a powerhouse portfolio that includes everything from self-driving cars ?? to YouTube ??, and even cutting-edge ventures like longevity research and drug discovery ?? (check out isomorphiclabs.com), Alphabet could very well outgrow its dependence on search. And as for Google Search? It’ll keep printing money for years, giving the company all the time it needs to pivot. ????

Plus, let’s not kid ourselves, Google won’t go down without a fight. ????