Goodbye New Politics. Hello Old Politics.

At last, it’s July and we have a Government. After the longest consistory in the history of Irish politics, the Green Party emitted some (virtual) white smoke and Eamon Ryan announced -Habemus Imperium - we have a Government.

And so, in the Convention Centre the Government was elected with a healthy 91 votes to 66 - one Deputy decided to abstain. The election marks an end to New Politics where the opposition had more votes than the Government and a return to Old Politics, where the Government has a clear majority in the Houses of the Oireachtas.

Some will argue that this takes us back to the pre 2016 situation. But, in truth, the type of politics we will see now will be more like the noughties and the nineties in terms of robust adversarial exchanges.

In the period from 2008, when the last crash came, to 2016, the largest opposition party in the Dáil pulled their punches. From 2008 to 2011, Fine Gael tacitly supported many of the measures brought in by the then Fianna Fáil led Government. In the period from 2011 to 2016, a much-reduced Fianna Fail party was timid in opposition as the then Fine Gael/Labour Government set about restoring the economy. 2016 marked the introduction of New Politics and Confidence and Supply.

Now, in the 33rd Dáil we have a Government with a strong majority. We also have one large opposition which secured the most first preferences in the General Election and is holding that support in subsequent polls.

So, what will Old Politics look like? For one, it will be more adversarial, bitter and personal. 

Sinn Féin’s style of attack can be very emotive and personal. To their supporters, they come across as passionate and committed. To their opponents, they are cynical, populist and aggressive.

It seems that Fine Gael, and to a lesser extent, Fianna Fáil, are gearing up to match Sinn Féin’s hostility. It was notable that Leo Varadkar spent one third of his short speech on the nomination of Michael Martin attacking Sinn Féin.

When Mary Lou McDonald announced her Front Bench, she said Ministers would be “matched by a very energetic, very determined Sinn Féin”. Her “A” team has been lined up to go ahead to head with the Ministers in the most topical Departments, especially Health and Housing.

In the past 4 years, debates on the airways were typically between a Government (Fine Gael) representative and one or two representatives drawn from the myriad of opposition parties -FF, Sinn Féin, Labour, Soc Dems and (one of the many) far left parties. Now it is likely that FF, FG and the Greens will represent the Government and Sinn Féin will represent the opposition. It will be a straight Government v Opposition shoot out.

The Dáil will be more fractious. In the last Dáil, it was a standard tactic for the opposition to put forward a Private Members Bill or Motion that was blatantly populist and embarrass the Government into accepting it or losing a vote. Now these Bills and Motions will be rejected by means of an amendment by the Government. Sinn Féin will cry foul in the media. 

Expect Sinn Féin to use its time to recycle many of Fianna Fáil’s and the Greens’ manifesto promises in an effort to embarrass the new Government parties. Fianna Fáil and Green backbenchers will be targeted for special attention as speech after speech they made in opposition will now be used against them.

Covid 19 and the long walk to Government has provided a period of relative political calm. As the consensual approach to the pandemic wanes, get ready for the political temperature to rise.

Welcome back-Old Politics.