Good news after bad?

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, addressed the House of Commons earlier this month to detail the results of a Treasury spending audit.

She claimed that the audit revealed ￡22 billion of unfunded pledges that have been inherited from the previous government. Shortfalls were also found from not increasing Departmental budgets to cover public sector pay settlements.

As a start on dealing with the overspend, the Chancellor announced savings of ￡5.5 billion for this year, with a further ￡8.1 billion to come next year. These measures include:

• Cutting winter fuel payments to only those who receive other State support. (Note that winter fuel payments are devolved in Scotland and Northern Ireland.)
• Scrapping the Rwanda migration partnership and retrospection of the Illegal Migration Act.
• Cancelling the Investment Opportunity Fund and other small projects.
• Next year, cancelling the Advanced British Standard and unaffordable road and railway schemes.
• The New Hospital Programme will also be reviewed.

She did confirm that the Independent Pay Review Body recommendations for pay uplifts for public sector workers have been accepted. These will average 5.5%.

New plans were outlined for Spending Reviews to be set every two years but cover a three-year period so that there is a one-year overlap with the previous Spending Review.

The Chancellor also committed to a single major fiscal event a year, as has been the case for the last few years. This presumably will continue with the recent pattern in which the Budget takes place in the Autumn, covering all significant tax and spending announcements. Any spring Statement would simply be in response to the second forecast that the Office for Budget Responsibility makes.

As part of her speech, the Chancellor also outlined tax plans that will be confirmed in the Budget, which is scheduled for 30 October. These include:

• Ending VAT tax breaks for private schools from 1 January 2025.
• Replacing the non-domicile regime with a new residence-based regime (this was already planned under the previous government)
• Extending the Energy Profits Levy for one year to 31 March 2030, tightening its investment allowances and increasing the levy rate to 38% (from 35%) from 1 November 2024.
• Closing the carried-interest loophole used by private equity fund managers to reduce their tax.

These measures have all been discussed in the Labour Party manifesto so there are no great surprises here.

Of course, you don’t need a calculator to see that the ￡22 billion shortfall in public spending will not be covered by the saving measures the Chancellor has already announced. So, it remains to be seen whether there will be any further ‘pain’ in the October Budget.

Alternatively, the Chancellor may be delivering all the bad news now, while it’s expected following the change in government, and she’s saving some good news for the budget.

We wait to see, but I will keep you posted on all the changes that may affect you via our Company LI page.

Feel free to get in touch, we will be happy to help you.

Q: In your business, have you ever employed the tactic of sharing bad news early so that good news is welcomed more emphatically later? Or perhaps overestimated a cost or loss position, so that when the results aren't quite "as bad as predicted" you can gloss over the negative with a positive brush?

Did it work? We'd love to learn from your experiences.