A good day for the Remain Camp

Theresa May has set out her stall on EU negotiations, which is basically we want all the benefits whilst controlling our borders to stop EU nationals residing here. This deal will be done and dusted in two years. The EU will obviously roll over to keep up the valuable trade opportunities. If we don’t get what we want we will walk away. However, this will be decided by Parliament who will have to make the decision over the difference between an acceptable and unacceptable deal being decided, and a consensus through a vote to be held in both Houses of Parliament.

Now this is in theory a strong negotiating stance that will be seen by the other 27 states as obviously in the interest of all Europeans. However, is it just me, or an uphill struggle has just turned into a mountaineering expedition for which we have not brought the appropriate equipment and we have added the caveat that we might just give up? It is possible that our negotiators, whoever they are, will achieve this vision and if they do even as a staunch Pro European I would even support this as a masterstroke, however the chances are really vanishingly small.

Here are the difficulties.

1.     The European Union is made up of 28 member states, including us. Even if we got a negotiated deal outlined, it could be shot down by any other State and they would do this for internal political reasons. The argument that they would not do this for the gain of whichever party is in power sort of misses the politics that led Boris to lead the Out campaign, which had nothing to do with his own political plans.

2.     The basis of our negotiating position is to say we don’t like Europeans coming to the UK. How could that possibly cause the states that have their nationals here, such as Poland, to take exception and throw up as many obstacles as possible? If another state did this, we would.

3.     Negotiations due to the complexity will never be completed in two years and the idea that they could be, is laughable. It probably has something to do with the firing of any official (ambassador) that raises little points like the practical and legal problems.

4.     The final deal will need to be agreed by both Houses. The Government position is that the referendum gave a clear mandate. The problem is two years from now, how popular will the Government be? The cost of the Brexit vote is already hitting the high street and the “just about managing” are going to be really unhappy if the rise in fuel, food and imported goods mean they are on the wrong side of that slogan. The vote will be seen as a second referendum. MPs and the press are mainly on the side of exit, two years from now with major political infighting over what concessions should or will need to be made could see a very different political landscape.

This is a great day for those who think that we should stay in because it might just be too difficult.To use the mountaineering analogy, instead of conquering Everest it looks like we are being led into the foothills and being left there without a map.