Good COP - Bad COP

As my COP26 - UN Climate Change Conference visit draws to a close, it seems a good time to consolidate and review the key outcomes. Clearly we can expect more in the closing negotiations and as the dust settles over the coming weeks but there's a palpable sense of mixed feelings here amongst us fringe actors, between certainty that the climate agenda is finally front and centre and deep frustration that meaningful progress still eludes us. In the 'decisive decade' we need unequivocal policy change so the #sustainability community can focus on delivery. Here's my #COP26 In A Nutshell:

• USA-China Climate Agreement came out of left field on the penultimate day of COP26. The world’s two largest GHG emitters have agreed to co-operate on climate issues but haven’t made any new pledges. Whilst the announcement was met with cautious optimism, the devil (as always) will be in the detail.
• India pledged to generate half of its electricity by renewables by 2030 with net zero target by 2070.
• 100 world leaders (representing 85% forests) agreed to reverse deforestation by 2030 (crucially including Brazil, who control most of the Amazon rainforest). New funding should help as 2014 promises didn’t materialise, and there are funds to restore forest-fire land too.
• Methane – 90+ nations representing two-thirds of the global economy – agreed to reduce methane emissions by at least 30% from current levels by 2030 (too little too late?). Much will be US-led. Again significantly, China, India and Russia have not pledged to cut their methane emissions.
• Coal is the single largest contributor to climate change. Signatories include 46 countries; 23 of which are making commitments on ending coal for the first time. Crucially Australia, India, US and China didn’t sign. However many global banks have signed to end funding of coal and this could be more significant than policy if there is a danger of stranded assets.
• New IEA analysis shows the with the methane commitments we could stay within 1.8 degrees but Selwin Hart, the special adviser to the UN secretary-general on climate action, challenged this assertion: based on the nationally determined contributions that have been submitted, the world is still on a 2.7 degree catastrophic pathway to 2100 and at best. The Climate Action Tracker indicates probability of 2.4-2.7 degrees.
• There’s been a renewed focus on Adaptation as it’s acknowledged we can no longer rely on prevention. Adaptation includes skills, innovation (including AI) and decarbonising products including steel, cement and concrete and chemical industries.
• Scaling-up of solar is expected with a $1?trillion global investment commitment to 2030.
• Race to Zero commitments come from sectors as diverse as the music industry, consumer goods, World Travel & Tourism etc as they belatedly start to acknowledge the existential threats to their sectors. Most are still slow with 2050 targets.
• The International Labour Organization is looking at how to replace 6 million jobs that are directly dependent on coal, oil and other high emitting sectors, with a SkillsLab approach to an inclusive and equitable transition.
• Cities Clean Construction Coalition (with SteelZero and ConcreteZero) is launched as part of C40 Cities along with a host of other net zero pathways and roadmaps across the built environment.