Gold very likely to witness another 5-10% drop in the immediate future
Rethish Varma Sachidanandan
VP – Multi-Asset Fund Manager | DIFC, Dubai | Capital Markets | Strategic Asset Allocation | Delivering Growth Through Diversified Portfolios
In the month of Aug 2020, I had given a technical view to a blog site, which said Gold is likely to drop to $1,820-1,770 levels. Important thing to note is that, this contra call was given at a time when most of the analysts or fund houses were extremely bullish on the yellow metal and it was trading around $ 2,100 expectations was that it could go to $ 2400-3,000 bla bla bla...
Now, may be by gods grace or may be my view was correct, Gold as you can see corrected to $1,764 levels. I firmly believe that we could see another 5-10% drop in prices from the current levels. Just have a look at the below chart.
Its a daily chart for the past 3 years and you can see it is forming a descending triangle pattern with base around $ 1,760 levels. If it still manages to stay at current levels, then the trading range will shift lower to $ 1,760-1,850. Any big upmove is possible only if it succesfully close above $ 1,850 levels and consolidates there. However, that is less likely, and a break below $ 1,760 levels could take the price towards $ 1,700. Once reaching, $ 1,700, it might bounce back towards $ 1,750-1,760 levels, but it will be difficult for it to go beyond that and could result in another drop towards $ 1,650 levels.
Just wait for it to reach my target and I will update you then. Dont just follow brands or research reports published by some big bracket fund houses, do your own analysis before any trade.
Below find the screenshots of my posts that I was referring to.
Screenshot of follow up view in Sep 2020.