Gold touched $2000, What’s next - $1900 or $2100?
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The gold market has been booming, increasing by about 10% over the past 20 days. The rally, which started on October 6 after another strong US jobs report failed to push prices through crucial support near $1810 (~ Rs 56000), was accelerated up the following week after the Israel-Hamas conflict sparked an extremely aggressive round of short covering by unprepared speculators.
This demonstrates a market in which traders and investors are becoming more worried about the geopolitical environment as well as the US fiscal policy and whether the recent increase in both real and nominal yields would cause something to break.
The Israel-Hamas war is getting more intense, and investors are keeping a careful eye on it since it could disrupt supply lines and turn into a bigger problem. Given that the Israeli army might launch a ground invasion of Gaza at any time, the short-term demand for gold is still strong. The Israeli army's ground assault was postponed while several countries called for the secure delivery of relief supplies to Gaza's civilian population, but geopolitical stress remain.
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This month has seen a sharp increase in US Treasury yields. The 10-year yield hit 5%, the highest since 2006, while the 2-year yield hit 5.25%, the highest since 2000. Mortgage rates are rising due to the increase in yields, which is bad for borrowers and painful for banks and investment funds alike. This could lead to a reduction in bank lending to the economy.
The FOMC is likely to be on hold as the recent spike in Treasury yields has lessened the necessity for further rate hikes, according to FED chairman remarks, which were echoed by those of many other Fed members. The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates at the quickest rate in forty years over the last twenty months. The most recent increase, which took place in July, brought the benchmark federal funds rate to a 22-year high of 5.25 to 5.5%. It seems that the FOMC is finished raising rates in light of these most recent remarks and recent events in the bond market. Going forward, attention will mostly be focused on when the first rate cut will occur and how many will be made.
Gold has a bullish short-term outlook given the murkiness surrounding the Fed's future policy and the escalating geopolitical tensions. Until there is greater certainty on both fronts, investors will probably keep pouring money into this safe haven. At this point, a fall in prices is probably going to be met with new buying pressure ahead of the 200-day moving average, which is $1943. In light of this, it is noteworthy that asset managers have not yet shown a "Fear Of Missing Out" (FOMO) buying response. This might give the rally additional impetus when $2000 (~ Rs 61000) is crossed again, pushing prices higher towards $2100 ( ~Rs 64000) before the yearend.