Gold and S&P 500

On a macro basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break back above 11797-837 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $382.5 of this. We held an exhaustion area within this at 12756-690 with a 12746 low and have rallied $291.6. We held another exhaustion area within this at 14160-137 with a 14121 low and rallied $154.1. The break above 13470 projects this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have attained $219.2 of this so far. These are on hold. Keep in mind that within those bullish projections we have possible macro exhaustion areas above for this macro bullish correction (if it is a correction) against the move down from at 19114 in September of 2011 that come in at the 15306-810 general area, and 17264 area. We have rejected out of the lower level a third time now with a 15662 high for $101.2. The decent trade below 14971-69 projects this downward $47 minimum, $73 (+) maximum. We have seen $31.9 so far. If we break back above where this comes in at 14976-77 today decently, look for decent short covering to come in, likely back toward 15660 (+). I would also note we left a second, different type of medium-term bearish reversal above Monday --a decent penetration above 14933-37 would negate this and give a possible earlier short covering long opportunity than waiting for a decent break above 14973-74. The bearish projections above said, I warned there are possible exhaustion areas to contend with on the way down (see below). 

On a short-term basis: We have seen $56.7 from the 15217 breakdown level.  We are now likely making a deeper correction against the move up from 13964, or in a medium-term bear trend. Areas of possible exhaustion for this correction (if it is a corrective structure) come in at 14677-581, 14327-210 and lower. We held the upper of these yesterday with a 14650 low and have rallied $28.5. We will have to see whether this has follow-through enough to violate the bearish patterns above, or whether they will prevail, and we head down to test lower levels. NOTE: a maintained gap lower in the S&P 500 will leave a medium-term bearish reversal above, and also violate a medium-term bullish reversal below…something to keep in mind, today could be a real key day in determining direction for the weeks ahead.