Gold & Silver Surges Foreshadow Trouble!
April 12/15th = Pivot Cycle (Potential Peak).
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Currency War Cycle Nears Inflection Point…
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Bonds, Stocks & Oil Concur. Date of Aggression Approaches!
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04-10-24 - “As explained throughout the past year, October 2023 ushered in the latest ‘Sweet Spot’ for Silver (& Gold) from an inflationary perspective.
The U.S. economy has seen fit to create a ‘Sweet-er Spot’… perhaps the ‘Sweet-est Spot’.? Today’s CPI report reinforced that.? Here’s why:
At least up to this point (never say never), the Fed has not even thought of discussing any additional rate hikes in the foreseeable future - leaving the sweet spot intact for Silver.?
Up until now, the thinking has been that all the preceding hikes would start to slow down the economy and eventually bring inflation back down to the Fed’s magical ~2% level.?
That hasn’t happened.
If it was happening, it would probably be the result of a slowing economy… which would also start to take some of the shine off Silver, at least from an inflationary-hedge perspective.? Instead, Silver & Gold get the best of both worlds - persistent inflation combined with little or no threat of rising interest rates.
As explained before, the onset of an inflationary period - like that seen in 2021/2022 - is often a struggle for markets like Silver since their inflationary appeal is offset by - sometimes bludgeoned by - the continuing threat of rising interest rates (to combat that inflation).?
However, when that interest rate hiking cycle is complete - but inflationary pressures remain (even if they are not escalating as quickly as they had before) - it creates an ideal situation for Silver (and Gold) to surge.?
That optimum scenario began in 4Q 2023… when the talk and focus began to shift to ‘when will interest rates be cut?’.
If that wasn’t enough, an explosive geopolitical event took place in the Middle East in early-October 2023 - perfectly fulfilling a myriad of long-term cycles (all focused on 2023, 4Q 2023 and/or August - October 2023) that had anticipated this for years.
The latest phase of this ‘Perfect Storm’ - of Silver & Gold bullish factors - was ushered in along with the new Natural Year on March 19/20, 2024.?
At that time, Gold completed its ‘ii’ wave correction while retesting breakout support and its month-opening range support and began a new advance - projected to last into the middle half of April and take Gold above 2320/GCM.
Soon after, Silver corroborated that in late-March and began a rally projected to reach 28.25/SIK (and ultimately exceed 30.00/SI).?
The Fed’s PCE report reinforced that and spurred a surge into the CPI report as the fundamentals keep showing that inflation remains alive and well… but not scary enough to warrant talk of any new rate hikes.
This could, however, have adverse effects on other markets…
Bonds & Notes remain in weekly downtrends and continue to decline after rallying into March 28 and fulfilling a .618 rebound in time (57 days down, 35 days up) while peaking ~3 months/~90 degrees from the Dec 27/28th high.?
The ensuing decline took Bonds & Notes down to weekly HLS levels last week, portending a 1 - 2 month low in the ensuing weeks…?
As a result, they could set a low on April 11/12th - the latest phase of the ~5-week/34 - 36 day low (Oct 19) - high (Nov 22) - high (Dec 27) - high (Feb 1) - high (March 8) - (low; April 11/12, 2024) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the March ’24 highs.
On a broader basis, they remain in a multi-month corrective period - waiting to set a ‘b’ wave low and enter a 2 - 3 month ‘c’ wave advance.? In the ideal (cyclic) scenario, that would take Bonds & Notes higher into 3Q 2024 (ideally July/August ‘24) - when an uncanny ~4-Year Cycle next peaks.?
The magnitude (time & price) of the 2020 - 2023 decline suggests that a rally into 3Q ‘24 - if it occurs as expected - could be the ‘A’ wave of a higher-degree ‘A-B-C’ rebound - that could dovetail with the ~17-Year Cycle of US Recessions detailed in the April 2024 INSIIDE Track. (The larger-magnitude ‘B’ wave low could be set in 4Q 2024… and then lead to a larger ‘C’ wave rally in 2025.)
4Q ’23 ushered in what is likely to be a dramatic shift in the interest rate arena and (potentially) real estate values - fulfilling a ~17-Year Cycle of Fed Funds rate peaks (the peaks of ~3-year advances in 1989, 2006 & 2023) and lows in the Housing Affordability Index… as well as peaks in US median home prices in 1955, 1972, 1989, 2006 and… 2023(???)…
Gold & Silver have surged to primary upside targets in line with overriding wave timing targets, particularly in Gold.? For the past 6+ weeks, Gold had been projected to surge from ~2040 to ~2320/GCM in fulfillment of its mid-February buy signal.?
That was/is the minimum upside target for this 1 - 2 month advance.? In late-March, Gold showed it would likely exceed that initial target and reach xxxx - xxxx/GCM… as Silver surged to its own combination of targets at 28.09 - 28.25/SIK (range-trading target, weekly LHR, monthly HHR).? (**A longer-term range target, on multiple levels, is at 30.50 - 31.25/SI.)?
All of this action, including Gold’s test of its weekly LHR last week, portend a 1 - 2 month peak in the coming weeks.? That dovetails with longer-term analysis, reiterated in mid-March…??? ??
However, price action needs to signal when an intermediate peak is taking hold.? Gold has initially fulfilled a ~19-wk low (March ’23) - high (July 17-21 ’23) - high (Nov 27 - Dec 1 ’23) - (high; April 8 - 15 (--19), ’24) Cycle Progression but competing cycles and wave objectives could still spur higher highs in April.
1 - 3 month & 3 - 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM & 23.00/SIK and be holding 1/2 of these positions w/avg. open gains of about $30,000/contract & $25,000/contract, respectively.? Move risk/exit levels to [reserved for subscribers].
The other 1/2 of Gold positions should have been exited when 2319/GCM was hit - with avg. gains of about $27,000/contract - and in Silver at the start of this week with avg. gains of about $23,000/contract.? TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The XAU & HUI have surged in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs.? The action of the past 7 weeks mimicked the weeks between mid-February and mid-April 2023, when the XAU embarked on a ~5 & ~7-week surge.?
In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later.? In 2023, that led to an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.
2024 was projected to see something similar… but potentially more powerful.
That was projected to spur a surge to ~137.00/XAU leading into April 5th (7 weeks from the initial low and 5 weeks from the retest low).? It made it to 136.76/XAU on April 5th.
That also had it initially fulfilling other indicators and objectives - projecting a surge to 134 - 138.00 in this time frame.? That is where four consecutive weekly LHRs converged (highest at 137.96/XAU) - just below the monthly Raw SPR at 138.15/XAU.
The XAU has fulfilled all these objectives and could see a brief pullback - possibly spiking down to 130.50 - 131.80/XAU.? However, it would not signal a multi-week top until (at the very least) [reserved for subscribers]…?
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On a broader basis, the February ’24 low projected a higher-magnitude advance to at least 157.00/XAU, where the current rally would match the magnitude of the late-2022/early-2023 rally.? That could be seen in the coming months… possibly weeks.
1 - 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 102.60 - 106.00 in late-February and exited 1/3 of those positions when 134.00/XAU was hit last week.? Another 1/3 cold have been exited when 138.00/XAU was hit.? Move sell stops to exit the remaining 1/3 if/when [reserved for subscribers]… TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Natural Gas remains weak but just completed the time frame (March 2024) when a ~4-year low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression portends a major low.??
That cycle previously timed the 1Q 2020 bottom and helped to trigger a ~2.5 year advance into 3Q ’22 - when 11-month, ~22-month & ~8.25-year Cycle Progressions projected a multi-year peak and subsequent plunge.? It would not show any signs of bottoming until a daily close above 1.900/NGK (2.140/NGM).”? -- April 10, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
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The Natural Year ‘Opening Range’
The first month of the Natural Year - from March 20/21 until April 19/20 - has an oversized impact on key markets during specific years.?
2024 was projected to be one of them!
That first ‘month’ (the ‘Month of Aggression’) leads into the Date of Aggression (April 19th)- a time that has had a sometimes-devastating impact on America and the globe.? It is often a time of increased conflict or attacks - usually linked to corroborating cycles - and was forecast to see related occurrences in 2024.?
INSIIDE Track has detailed that correlation for over two decades and 2024 was forecast to provide another example of this type of action.
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Casting Shadows Ahead…
While the action of March 20 - April 19 was/is expected to trigger a sharp surge in Gold & Silver - and related shifts in other markets - the more important aspect of that time frame is what it bodes for the subsequent 11 months… the remainder of that Natural Year.
Most indications are that Gold & Silver should accelerate into an initial peak at any time - with the greatest synergy of daily & weekly cycles converging on April 12th/15th, 2024.? However, it is what that action reveals about the coming year that is most important.
In 3Q & 4Q 2022, INSIIDE Track & the Weekly Re-Lay explained why a multitude of long-term cycles - including a 7-Year Cycle in Gold & Silver - were projecting a Major, multi-year bottom in precious metals and projecting powerful rallies in 2023/2024.?
Gold & Silver bottomed in October 2022 and have headed higher ever since!
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In late-September/early-October 2023, INSIIDE Track & the Weekly Re-Lay explained why a powerful convergence of intermediate cycles were projecting a second (higher) multi-year bottom in precious metals and projecting powerful rallies in 4Q 2023, in March/April 2024, and then in [reserved for subscribers].
Those publications detailed the myriad of technical indicators projecting the onset of a major bull market in Gold & Silver…
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Gold & Silver bottomed in early-October 2023 and have headed higher ever since!
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That coincided with, and powerfully fulfilling, INSIIDE Track projections for major Middle East conflict to begin in October 2023 and steadily escalate into late-2025.? Much of that analysis had been compiled (again) in late-2022 - projecting future focus to 4Q 2023…
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In mid-February 2024, the Weekly Re-Lay detailed why corroborating cycles and technical indicators were triggering a 1 - 2 month buy signal in Gold & Silver and projecting a breakout rally in Gold (to new all-time highs) and a Silver surge that could easily exceed 30.00/SI...
https://40yearcycle.com/uncategorized/gold-poised-for-march-2024-surge-new-currency-war-is-underway/
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Gold & Silver bottomed on February 14, 2024 and have accelerated higher ever since!
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However, they are now entering the time when an initial blow-off high is most likely (April 12 - 19th, greatest synergy of cycles on April 12/15, 2024).?
Gold has secondary upside targets at 2430 - 2445/GCM while Silver could attack 30.00/SI before peaking.
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Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
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TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
More information can be found at www.insiidetracktrading.com.
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GM Future Energy - TLC + Owner/Operator Footwhistle Cave
10 个月Love your work Eric!!! You have been bang on again.
Chief Investment Officer at Patton Capital Management
10 个月Just putting together same piece using Ted Cassidy's Star Trek scene. "That was the equation"; when gold surges as stocks decline (ie Feb 2020) then rolls over, portents are dire.