Gold Sets (Major?) Peak as NQ-100 Plunges in Line with Outlook! Watch July 18/19th for Confirmation.
NVDA Leads Tech Index Lower After Fulfilling Upside Targets & Cycle Highs in Late-June ’24.
?
Bitcoin Validating July 10th Buy Signal; Upside Target in Focus.
Dollar Drops to July 19th Target… Euro Peaking at Pivotal Resistance.
?
07/17/24 - “The NQ-100 - signaled a multi-week top after fulfilling a myriad of upside targets in price and time… This is remarkably similar to what occurred in July 2007 - the previous phase of the 17-Year Cycle that has been monitored all year.?
At that time, the DJIA had consolidated in May & June ’07 and then triggered a bullish surge during the second week of July (July 9 - 13, 2007) before spiking higher during the ensuing week and setting a new 1 - 2 month peak (July 16 - 20, 2007).
It then sold off into mid-August ‘07 before rallying into mid-October ‘07 and setting a final peak.
In 2024, the DJIA consolidated in May & June ’07 and then triggered a bullish surge during the second week of July (July 8 - 12, 2024) before spiking higher during the ensuing week (July 15 - 19, 2024).
Could it now set a new 1 - 2 month peak, sell off into mid-August, and then rally into mid-October and set a final peak?
While I would not normally expect such close adherence to a cycle analog like this, it is something that should not be ignored.? The previous phases - in 1990 & 1973 - also set July highs before selling off…
The NQ-100 reinforced this 17-Year Cycle scenario (for a July ’24 peak) with several independent (and non-correlated) cycles of its own…
In 2020/2021, the Nasdaq 100 surged for ~20 months before peaking.?
In 2024, the Nasdaq 100 has matched that advance and now surged for ~20 months from its October 2022 bottom into July 2024 - when a multi-week and possibly multi-month top was/is most likely.?
That ~20-month advance was split into successive ~9-month advances that occurred 12 months apart (Oct ‘22 into July ‘23 and October 2023 into July 2024) with a pullback in between.?
It also fulfilled a number of upside price and wave targets while setting its July 10/11th peak.
That combination of timing and price fulfillment increased the potential for a sharp sell-off into July 17 - 19th and ultimately into August (mid-August?) 2024.
It also activated the primary/initial downside targets in the NQ-100 - at [reserved for Weekly Re-Lay subscribers]…
The NQ-100 turned its daily trend down, reinforcing this outlook while simultaneously increasing the potential for an initial low on July xx - xx…
The Dollar Index is fulfilling ongoing analysis for a decline to, at the very least, the early-June low of 103.25/DXU.? That would also fulfill a ‘c = a’ correction target at 103.04/DXU (July decline = May/June decline).?
In the current week, the Raw SPS is at 103.19/DXU, coinciding with last week’s HLS (103.20/DXU) - a prime downside target for an initial low.? That is just above the 2024 year-opening range - the high of which is 102.80/DXU - a pivotal level of resistance turned into support on an intra-year basis.?
That is also just above the now-declining monthly 21 Low MAC, a critical multi-year trend indicator/support. This is occurring in the second week after the Dollar Index tested & held its weekly HLS - making this a prime time for a pullback low.
The Euro is the inverse and has rallied after bottoming while fulfilling a 9 - 10-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression in late-June.?
It surged to its weekly LHRs and was expected to retest/exceed its early-June peak and year-opening range low - both near 1.0960/ECU (also the upper end of monthly resistance)…
Bitcoin & Ether bottomed in line with monthly, weekly & daily cycles in Bitcoin that projected a low around July 8th followed by a surge into August ’24 - the next phase of a ~5-month/~22 - 24-week Cycle Progression in Ether (~4,150/ETH is initial target).
They bottomed as Bitcoin fulfilled a ~10-month high-high-high-low-low-low (Sept ’23) - (low; July 2024) Cycle Progression and a ~68-day low (10/11/23) - low (12/18) - low (2/23/24) - low (5/01/24) - (low; July 8, ‘24) Cycle Progression while also completing successive ~7-week declines - textbook corrective wave symmetry.
On July 10, 2024, both Bitcoin & Ether triggered new 2 - 4 week buy signals and projected rallies back to their March ’24 highs… and potentially higher.? They are now confirming those signals and increasing the likelihood for a surge into August 2024… and back to their prevailing intra-year highs.?
2 - 4 week traders could have entered long positions in Bitcoin & Ether near 57,350/BT (~58,600/BTU) & 3,100/ETH - basis the strategy outlined in the July 10, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert and should be holding those long positions w/avg open gains of about $7,200 per bitcoin or $36,000 per futures contract.?
Move trailing stops [reserved for Weekly Re-Lay subscribers]…
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!!
Gold & Silver are fulfilling the overall outlook (since October ’23, mid-Feb ’24 & early-June ’24) for a rally into July 2024 - the most likely month, cyclically-speaking, for a spike high and resulting 2 - 3 (or 3 - 6) month peak.
The rally into July 2024 is also fulfilling the ongoing parallel to the 2016 - 2020 bull market that has unfolded since late-2022.? In both bull markets, Gold initially rallied for 7 - 8 months and then sold off for ~5, retracing 70 - 75% of the initial rally.
In 2016/2017, Gold subsequently rallied for ~9 months - into Sept 2017 - before setting a multi-month peak.
In 2023/2024, Gold was/is forecast to do something similar and rally into the month of July ‘24 - a ~9-month advance from its Oct. ‘23 low.??
If a peak is set on July 8 - 15, ‘24, it would precisely perpetuate a ~31-week low-high-high-(high; July 8 - 15, ‘24) Cycle Progression that has governed Gold since its 7-Year Cycle bottom in September 2022. ?That is a little beyond the peak of corresponding Silver cycles.
The rally into - and a peak during - the month of July 2024 would fulfill what has been projected since the March 2022 peak and since the ensuing May 2023 peak… and since the October 2023 low.
That would fulfill a ~28-month low-low-high-(high; July 2024) Cycle Progression, an uncanny ~14-month low-low-low-low-high-high-high-(high; July 2024) Cycle Progression and a ~7-month high-high-high-(high; July 2024) Cycle Progression.
Gold’s weekly trend structure could also help pinpoint a top.? As explained before, the likely scenario was that Gold would rally back to its high but not turn its weekly trend back up - ushering in a peak… Gold could be signaling a 1 - 2 month peak.
Silver is poised to turn its daily trend back down, reinforcing that scenario.?
It had greater synergy of weekly cycles in May ’24 and was unable to retest its May ’24 peak while rallying into July ’24.? That could spur a drop into [reserved for Weekly Re-Lay subscribers] when multiple weekly cycle lows & timing indicators converge.”
- July 17, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert - July 17 - 19th Cycles: An Impending Shift?
?
Gold has just fulfilled all the criteria for a decisive top! July 17th is the likely peak. July 17 - 19th Remains a Precarious Time in the Markets… Particularly in the NQ-100 and related tech, chip & AI stocks.
?
领英推荐
Tech Stock Sell-off
Much of this was detailed in the late-June & early-July Weekly Re-Lays and corresponding LinkedIn articles like the following…
As described in that article:
7-05-24 - “There is still the all-popular leading stock that has supported the 2024 advance - NVDA.? It fulfilled upside targets - in time and price - during the week of June 17 - 21, 2024 and underwent an initial sell-off into June 24th.? Based on a combination of shorter-term (daily) cycles and timing indicators, it would set a secondary high on July 5th or 8th and then enter another sell-off.?
July 8 - 12th will also be when a key time/price reversal indicator would be best positioned for a negative signal.? (The Weekly Re-Lay recently published a critical downside target for that proxy stock.)
All things combined, that means July 8 - 12th and July 15 - 19th should be challenging weeks for that stock…”
That article also reiterated some key aspects of the broader outlook, explaining why the Nasdaq 100 was poised for a sharp sell-off with an initial plunge into July 19th (potentially stretching into the following week IF a corroborating signal was triggered on July 19th).
?
The following are excerpts from related LinkedIn articles, detailing why NVDA should peak on June 17 - 21, 2024 near 140.00 and then see an overall initial decline into July 19th or 22nd.? The real excitement could come in following weeks…
6/15/24 LI - The Ultimate Proxy Stock (Reason #5)
A prime example exists in the leader of 2024’s biggest surges - and the stock that has created MORE than 1/3 of the S+P 500’s gains in this time frame - NVDA.
In March 2024, the Weekly Re-Lay detailed the outlook for NVDA to set an initial multi-week peak around 950 (now the equivalent to 95/NVDA) and drop sharply into April 19th - with a downside target of 750 - 765/NVDA (75 - 76.5/NVDA on a current chart, adjusted for the 10/1 split).?
NVDA did exactly that - plunging to 756.1/NVDA (75.61) while remaining in positive weekly, monthly & intra-year trends.? Since it did not turn any indicators negative, NVDA reinforced its ongoing uptrend and increased the likelihood for a surge to its next major upside target.
That April 19th low projected the onset of a new advance that would fulfill multi-month & multi-year cycle highs on June 17 - 21, 2024 with a primary upside wave target at 133.78 and corroborating multi-month upside targets spanning 133.50 - 142.75/NVDA…?
?
If these indicators are accurate, June 18th should usher in a ‘corrective’ period.
________________________________
??
6/18/24 - The Ultimate Proxy Stock (Reason #5 Revisited)
Another corroborating factor is the leading stock in the 2024 rally - NVDA.? In March 2024, the Weekly Re-Lay detailed the outlook for NVDA to set an initial multi-week peak around 950 (now the equivalent to 95/NVDA) and drop sharply into April 19th - with a downside target of 750 - 765/NVDA (75 - 76.5/NVDA on a current chart, adjusted for the 10/1 split).?
?
?
NVDA did exactly that - plunging to 756.1/NVDA (75.61) while remaining in positive weekly, monthly & intra-year trends.? Since it did not turn any indicators negative, NVDA reinforced its ongoing uptrend and increased the likelihood for a surge to its next major upside target.
That April 19th low projected the onset of a new advance that would fulfill multi-month & multi-year cycle highs on June 17 - 21, 2024 with multi-month upside targets converging at 133.50 - 142.75/NVDA.? Among other things, a peak during the current week would fulfill a ~44-week low-low-(high; June 17 - 24, 2024) Cycle Progression and complete back-to-back advances of equal duration.
______________________________
?
6-19-24 - A key proxy stock is corroborating this outlook…
In March 2024, the Weekly Re-Lay detailed the outlook for NVDA to set an initial multi-week peak around 950 (now the equivalent to 95/NVDA) and drop sharply into April 19th - with a downside target of 750 - 765/NVDA (75 - 76.5/NVDA on a current chart, adjusted for the 10/1 split).?
NVDA did exactly that - plunging to 756.1/NVDA (75.61) while remaining in positive weekly, monthly & intra-year trends.? Since it did not turn any indicators negative, NVDA reinforced its ongoing uptrend and resumed its advance, on track for a surge to its next major upside target.
That April 19th low projected the onset of a new advance that would fulfill multi-month & multi-year cycle highs on June 17 - 21, 2024 with multi-month upside targets converging at 133.50 - 142.75/NVDA.?
Among other things, a peak during the current week would fulfill a ~44-week low-low-(high; June 17 - 24, 2024) Cycle Progression and complete back-to-back advances of equal duration.
1 - 3 month & 3 - 6 month traders could…
?
6-26-24 - Stock Indices remain mixed as they trade through a vulnerable period… the S+P 500 & NQ-100 remain in positive territory… thanks to a handful of stocks.
The primary one of those stocks - NVDA - fulfilled upside price & timing targets last week after helping to spur over a third of the S+P 500’s gains in 2024...?
In March 2024, the Weekly Re-Lay detailed the outlook for NVDA to set an initial multi-week peak around 950 (now the equivalent to 95/NVDA) and drop sharply into April 19th - with a downside target of 750 - 765/NVDA (75 - 76.5/NVDA on a current chart, adjusted for the 10/1 split).?
NVDA fulfilled that analysis - plunging to 756.1/NVDA (75.61) while remaining in positive weekly, monthly & intra-year trends.? That reinforced its ongoing uptrend and led to a resumption of its advance, with upside price and timing targets recently fulfilled.
The April 19th low projected the onset of a new advance that would fulfill multi-month & multi-year cycle highs on June 17 - 21, 2024 with multi-month upside targets converging at 133.50 - 142.75/NVDA.?
Among other things, a peak last week would fulfill a ~44-week low-low-(high; June 17 - 24, 2024) Cycle Progression and complete back-to-back advances of equal duration.? It peaked at 140.76 on June 20th, ushering in a new intermediate peak.”
?
BOTTOM LINE:? The outlook continues to call for a sharp sell-off in tech stocks leading into July 19th.? However, that might just be the first phase of a larger decline IF the appropriate criteria are met on July 18th & 19th.
Meanwhile, Gold fulfilled everything necessary to signal a decisive top on July 17th.? It is also poised to enter a sharp decline.? A July 2024 peak has been projected for over a year and Gold has set the stage perfectly for fulfillment of that forecast.? Already, Gold & Silver are forming the outlook for the coming weeks, which will be detailed in ongoing Weekly Re-Lay analysis.
?
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
?
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
More information can be found at www.insiidetracktrading.com.
?
_______________________________
?